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re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 4

Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:55 pm to
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:55 pm to
quote:

NC State, UConn, North Texas, ULM and SMU... Pick your favorite three out of that group for this weekend and you'll probably do well.
Posted by blades8088
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
4298 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:55 pm to
I cant believe this

Who does that shite
This post was edited on 9/19/13 at 9:56 pm
Posted by CP3LSU25
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2009
52570 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:56 pm to
I hope those son of a bitches choke their food tonight
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25716 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:56 pm to
Why did I not take Clemson live like I said?

I'll take my win though.
Posted by wish i was tebow
The Golf Board
Member since Feb 2009
46124 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:56 pm to
yeah. 1 they couldnt get a 4th down stop. and 2 that drive took forever.


the whole time I said at 14.5 I take NC State. At 13.5 I take clemson

just a tough loss. game could have gone either way.
Posted by TheOcean
#honeyfriedchicken
Member since Aug 2004
45885 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:57 pm to
Anything below 14 was clemson all day. Can't regret that pick. Although, NC State got fricked and should have easily covered.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177200 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:57 pm to
This game was very Louisville/Kentucky-esq
Posted by aVatiger
Water
Member since Jan 2006
27967 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:58 pm to
hay guyz! whatz going on in he...

quote:

I just threw up. I'm not lying


Posted by wish i was tebow
The Golf Board
Member since Feb 2009
46124 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 9:58 pm to
yeah Clemson also had their chances to put that game away.


like I said could have gone either way.

when clemson went to 13.5 I had to take them. it was a small play so not killer but would have liked a win obviously.

oh well, off to the weekend
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25816 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 10:03 pm to
Yup, Vegas is good - they had this thing capped like a boss.

Either side could've covered... I usually feel worse when I take complete derps like BGSU +3 vs. Indiana last weekend (IU won by 35)
This post was edited on 9/19/13 at 10:05 pm
Posted by TJG210
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2006
29415 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 10:07 pm to
I should have known better than to fricking back Clemson.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16910 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 10:11 pm to
Thank god for my live bet to recoup almost all of my losses.
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5706 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 10:26 pm to
I'm glad most of the guys on this board who were on the wrong side tonight can atleast acknowledge that the huge TD run being called back was a huge break in Clemsons favor. Twitter is an absolute bitch fest that the game was rigged and that Clemson was clearly the better team. Clemsons Offense is light years ahead of NC States at this point, but the defense played a really good football game.

I don't like being on the opposite side of most of you, hopefully it won't happen too much this weekend.
Posted by BeYou
DFW
Member since Oct 2012
6038 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 10:32 pm to
Props to the NC State backers.

Glad I missed placing my bet lol
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16910 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 11:03 pm to
Too soon for the sunshine pumping.
Posted by jp90
Member since Oct 2009
1298 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 11:12 pm to
Teaser and small parlay cashed tonight, +$350 on the week.


I'm not really a disciplined unit bettor. Teasers and parlays are more my thing, but they've served me well thus far.
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5706 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 11:13 pm to
Lol. Sorry should have held off until the morning, actually thought that as soon as I hit submit.

My strategy using my upset rating I showed you is now up to 13-2 since the beginning of last week.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16910 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 11:16 pm to
You mind linking up this weeks excel sheet?
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 11:29 pm to
Cash Moneyline
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5706 posts
Posted on 9/19/13 at 11:35 pm to
I actually put a ton of work into it earlier this week. It is more thorough than almost anything you can find on the Internet as far as advanced statistics for football. I got inspired on my day off and decided I wanted all of my stats to be completely strength of schedule adjusted so I have a new excel sheet I created that is over 2500 rows long. It pulls stats from other pages and automatically updates itself after I manually update the main source. Feel free to view this rankings sheet I put together for FordFrenzy. It ranks all of my stats 1-125 in each category. 1 being the best 125 being the worst. I will also upload my matchups if I get a chance tomorrow.

LINK

When I say it is completely adjusted based on their opponents. If a team has played against two opponents with good offensive pass protectors it adjusts their pass rush rating. I was pretty proud to see how poorly my sheet thought of Clemsons O Line coming into tonight, it's clearly their biggest weakness.

Also when I say my upset rating is 13-2 I only use it in matchups where the team getting points 'the underdog' has a smaller number than the favorite. Tonight was obviously a play, as is Boise tomorrow.
This post was edited on 9/19/13 at 11:39 pm
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