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NFL Week 6 Betting Thread
Posted on 10/14/26 at 12:22 am
Posted on 10/14/26 at 12:22 am
14-3-1 over the last two weeks.
Week 6:
Seattle -2.5
Jacksonville -2.5
NY Giants +1.5
Atlanta +3.5
LA Rams -12.5
Kansas City -8
Buffalo -5
Green Bay -1.5
San Francisco -7
A handful of weaker Tier 3 plays: NY Jets +7.5, Carolina +1.5 & Baltimore -4.5. These are extra plays that are being monitored and not official plays. Tier 3 was 5-0 in Week 5.
Two complete no plays on Tennessee/Indy and Tampa/Pitt.
Week 6:
Seattle -2.5
Jacksonville -2.5
NY Giants +1.5
Atlanta +3.5
LA Rams -12.5
Kansas City -8
Buffalo -5
Green Bay -1.5
San Francisco -7
A handful of weaker Tier 3 plays: NY Jets +7.5, Carolina +1.5 & Baltimore -4.5. These are extra plays that are being monitored and not official plays. Tier 3 was 5-0 in Week 5.
Two complete no plays on Tennessee/Indy and Tampa/Pitt.
This post was edited on 10/14/26 at 12:23 am
Posted on 10/14/26 at 9:38 am to LSUAlum2001
Thats a strong record, is that ATS? What edge theory are you running? I haven't found a decent stats based model for NFL this year, but have been running purely public betting money split (i.e. sharp divergence) for last two seasons. 22-8 when I started week 15 last season and 23-17 this year (12-7 on Totals).
Here's were I am leaning before final picks Friday afternoon (I lock picks ~T-40hrs from Kickoff).
Bills game Over 53.5
Ravens -4.5
49ers -7.5
Bears/Falcons Over 49.5
Steelers -2.5
Patriots -7.5
Cardinals +12.5
Raiders +5.5
Here's were I am leaning before final picks Friday afternoon (I lock picks ~T-40hrs from Kickoff).
Bills game Over 53.5
Ravens -4.5
49ers -7.5
Bears/Falcons Over 49.5
Steelers -2.5
Patriots -7.5
Cardinals +12.5
Raiders +5.5
Posted on 10/14/26 at 1:20 pm to LSUTIGERS74
quote:
Thats a strong record, is that ATS?
Yes.
I did not start until after week 3 because I needed 2026 data points.
I built my own Power Rankings to get team ratings for each and then look a few specific metrics to choose each week's plays.
Posted on 10/14/26 at 1:30 pm to LSUAlum2001
I piggy backed your NFL bets last week. Good shite.
Posted on 10/14/26 at 1:54 pm to RB10
Hopefully I stay hot in Week 6.
Posted on 10/14/26 at 2:09 pm to LSUAlum2001
Do you do college as well?
Posted on 10/14/26 at 2:17 pm to LSUAlum2001
I just put in a 6.5 point teaser for every Sunday play you listed at +900. I’m not afraid to ride any hot hand. Stay on fire baw 
Posted on 10/14/26 at 2:26 pm to Gings5
College is very erratic.
I'm still working in it. It's 50-45 overall after last week.
I'm still working in it. It's 50-45 overall after last week.
Posted on 10/14/26 at 3:57 pm to LSUAlum2001
College is best to stay in lower tier market games as the big ticket games are just as well defined on price as NFL. I have probably put ~600-700 hours into modelling different data sets across 15 seasons of CFB and the edges are razor thin and rarely hold across multiple seasons. The best edges are subsets of trends. My elite tier went 58% ATS last season and is sitting 9-6 this season from week 1.
SMU -9
Buffalo -6
Preliminary picks before final run on Thursday afternoon.
SMU -9
Buffalo -6
Preliminary picks before final run on Thursday afternoon.
Posted on 10/14/26 at 4:14 pm to LSUTIGERS74
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/14/26 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 10/15/26 at 8:13 am to LSUTIGERS74
quote:
LSUAlum2001
Have you looked into backtesting your model that produced the last two weeks 14-3-1 results to see if it holds over multiple seasons? Would be really interested to see if you have a good edge model that holds up rather than a hot streak. Let me know if you need the datasets to run against as I have the historical lines for NFL back for last 10 years (from open to close so intervals can be tested) as well as you can get free data from games thru NFLverse.
Feel free to email me directly at scott@quaizimo.com
Posted on 10/15/26 at 10:23 am to LSUTIGERS74
So far, I’m on:
Chiefs -7.5
Jags -2.5
Chiefs -7.5
Jags -2.5
Posted on 10/15/26 at 4:11 pm to LSUTIGERS74
I would need stats, as they come in weekly after week 3, to run the model.
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