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NFL Teams Refusing to go for 2
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:27 am
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:27 am
The league average for 2 pt conversions from 2000-2009 is 47.9%. The mark to beat to make it indifferent to kicking the PAT is ~49%. So almost indifferent as is. However, you have to think that there is huge variance to that success rate based on the team. There is no way that the teams on the outskirts of the curve(Saints, Broncos, Packers) aren't above 49%.
For these teams, I could hear an argument that at best its indifferent to go for 2 vs kick and so should always be situation based(not just late in the game.) But in a game where Tony Romo is knifing the Broncos defense for a half-century of points, we still hear hemming and hawing from the announcer(and stupid fans) about Dallas going for 2 to cut the deficit to 3 with 15 minutes left in the game.
I suspect its no different than coaches obsession with mindlessly punting on 4th down. Anybody have any explanations for the love affair coaches have with kicking PATs?
For these teams, I could hear an argument that at best its indifferent to go for 2 vs kick and so should always be situation based(not just late in the game.) But in a game where Tony Romo is knifing the Broncos defense for a half-century of points, we still hear hemming and hawing from the announcer(and stupid fans) about Dallas going for 2 to cut the deficit to 3 with 15 minutes left in the game.
I suspect its no different than coaches obsession with mindlessly punting on 4th down. Anybody have any explanations for the love affair coaches have with kicking PATs?
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Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:40 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Anybody have any explanations for the love affair coaches have with kicking PATs?
Guaranteed points?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:41 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Anybody have any explanations for the love affair coaches have with kicking PATs?
because if you don't get it your fans and local media will crucify you.
Belicheck is the only one who can play those numbers and get a pass for the most part and even with him he took a lot of shite for going for that 4th down against the Colts a few years back.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:42 am to TheSexecutioner
Coaches are notoriously conservative about things like this.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:46 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
because if you don't get it your fans and local media will crucify you.
Belicheck is the only one who can play those numbers and get a pass for the most part and even with him he took a lot of shite for going for that 4th down against the Colts a few years back.
Exactly. If you haven't been in the league long enough to be called a football genius like Belichek, you get no reprieve.
Just like with most things in life, there is a minority of people who know WTF they are talking about on a given subject, some people who know they don't know everything, and a massive amount of people who think they know, speak their mind, and are utter morons on the subject.
The last group gets coaches fired.
This post was edited on 10/10/13 at 11:47 am
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:47 am to TheSexecutioner
Misleading stats. In a world where everyone went for 2 pts instead of PATs, they would be different. Whether that means higher or lower, I dunno. But I feel like taking anything from that 47.9% can lead you down a misleading path.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:48 am to TheSexecutioner
Remember the John Keynes quote so often referenced by Warren Buffett, "It is better to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally."
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:51 am to DollaChoppa
quote:
Misleading stats.
No its not.
They pulled data from 10 seasons, thats a lot of data points.I'd be willing to bet that if you had to do 2 point conversions for a season, you would get roughly the same number.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:52 am to Teddy Ruxpin
A decade later, Marty Mornhinweg is still ridiculed for thinking outside the box. 
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:54 am to DollaChoppa
quote:
Misleading stats. In a world where everyone went for 2 pts instead of PATs, they would be different.
exactly. Plus when you're talking about the NFL where such parity exists, getting 2 yards is not exactly as easy as people think. Professionals kicking it 20 yards is pretty much a certain though.
Game is about points...and they aren't that easy to get.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:55 am to TheSexecutioner
Someone, please explain to me why the Jets didn't go for 2, up 12 in the 4th quarter with I can't remember exactly but I think 9-12 minutes left in the game.
The only thing I can think of where not converting the 2pt would come back and bite them involves highly unlikely scenarios (like the Falcons having three more possessions TD FG FG)
The only thing I can think of where not converting the 2pt would come back and bite them involves highly unlikely scenarios (like the Falcons having three more possessions TD FG FG)
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:56 am to TheSexecutioner
I think teams should go for 2 in almost every situation. Tied game at the end of the game you obviously go for one to take the lead.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:57 am to TheSexecutioner
And yeah most coaches go with traditional way of doing things because of job security
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:11 pm to Powerman
If the success rate is under 50%, then you score more points over time by just going for the extra point.
Also, I think there might be a psychological factor induced by a failed 2 point conversion that might make it not worth it, especially if you miss 2 or 3 in a row.
Also, I think there might be a psychological factor induced by a failed 2 point conversion that might make it not worth it, especially if you miss 2 or 3 in a row.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:14 pm to LeonPhelps
quote:
If the success rate is under 50%, then you score more points over time by just going for the extra point.
would the good offenses be held under 50% though?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:25 pm to TheSexecutioner
Because averages don't work like that. 50% doesn't mean you make one then miss one and on and on. It means you could miss 4 and then make 4, etc. Do you want to be the coach who tried and missed 4 2-point conversions in a game?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:27 pm to barry
Others have said this, but they are exactly right. Teams rep a handful 2 point plays until they get them down and coaches feel comfortable that they will succeed. They even have a spot on their call sheet for 2 point plays. That's how specialized of a play it is. The conversion rate would almost certainly go down if everyone went for 2 all the time. As specialized and practiced as 2 point conversions are now, and the fact that they still only convert 48% of the time shows that.
This post was edited on 10/10/13 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:28 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
The mark to beat to make it indifferent to kicking the PAT is ~49%
Wouldn't the mark to beat be 51% if you are trying to do better than kicking the extra point?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:36 pm to TigerintheNO
yeah if you were to try 100 2's a season...
to make it worthwhile at the current rate, teams probably need to make 70-80% to feel confident they'll get a better return from 2 attempts every time
to make it worthwhile at the current rate, teams probably need to make 70-80% to feel confident they'll get a better return from 2 attempts every time
This post was edited on 10/10/13 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 10/10/13 at 12:40 pm to USLttarP
quote:
Game is about points...and they aren't that easy to get.
This is the exact wrong (and traditional) type of thinking, which is the point of this thread in the first place. It's similar to sabermetricians making the claim against bunting in baseball (and they are right). If you score 3 td's in one game and go for 2 every time, you have a pretty high probability of scoring 4 total extra points. If you were to go 2/3 on 2 pt attempts(1/2 on first two tries based on statistics and then the third attempt would be gambling), instead of a max opportunity of scoring 3 total points from 3 PAT's.
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