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re: MLB Trade Deadline Thread - Waiver deadline is 8/31
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:38 am to RollDatRoll
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:38 am to RollDatRoll
quote:
Camargo > Riley
Camargo > Dansby
0
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:39 am to UltimateHog
Pham would have made a lot of sense for the I words.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:39 am to Overbrook
Martin sucks. He’s got a great arm but he takes shitty angles and he tries to hit a homer every time at the plate.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:40 am to BigBoyTiger
Rosenthal:
quote:
#DBacks close on Ziegler, sources tell The Athletic.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:41 am to RollDatRoll
quote:
Camargo > Riley
That’s not where I disagree. My concern is Dansby’s bat. And Camargo can play SS.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:43 am to catfish 62
quote:
Archer is 34-49 over his last four seasons (includes this year). What is the hype? His ERA over that time is near 4 as well.
2014-3.2 WAR, 3.33 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 8.00 K/9, 3.33 BB/9
2015-5.2 WAR, 3.23 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 10.7 K/9, 2.80 BB/9
2016-3.2 WAR, 4.02 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.00 BB/9
2017-4.6 WAR, 4.07 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.69 BB/9
2018-1.7 WAR, 4.31 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 9.56 K/9, 2.91 BB/9
He has always out performed his ERA, and has been one of the most vauable starters in baseball. He is a littel unlucky this year with a .343 BABIP compared to his .300 career average. Line drive % is slightly up, but nothing to be really worried about.
Would also be moving from the AL east to the NL east, and the Brave have one of the best infield defenses in baseball(his GB% is about 45% this year).
Easy to see why the Brave covet him so much.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:45 am to eric4UA08
quote:
That’s not where I disagree. My concern is Dansby’s bat. And Camargo can play SS.
Dansby is the leader on the field, and could easily win a gold glove this season. Riley hasnt shown that he can consistently make contact in the minors.
Riley should easily be the prospect that gets moved in this deal. His value will never be higher.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:51 am to devils1854
Also easy to see why he is such a big gamble, declining numbers almost across the board, about to turn 30, and his metrics haven't matched the actual production for 3 years now.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:52 am to UltimateHog
Brad Ziegler to Arizona per Morosi:
quote:
#DBacks, #Marlins agree on Brad Ziegler trade, pending medical information, source confirms @Ken_Rosenthal report. @MLBNetwork @MLB
quote:
Brad Ziegler started the season rough, but has a 0.64 ERA in his last 28 appearances.
This post was edited on 7/31/18 at 11:54 am
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:54 am to UltimateHog
quote:
Also easy to see why he is such a big gamble, declining numbers almost across the board, about to turn 30, and his metrics haven't matched the actual production for 3 years now.
Still has a very solid FIP. I dont go by ERA. Ks are a little down, but his walk rate is right around his career average. His velocity is about the same as his career average, and like I said, his BABIP is 43 points higher than his career average, which means he is getting unlucky.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:57 am to UltimateHog
Club options in 2020, 21. So if he sucks, you really only have to eat next season @ 7.5m, no?
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:57 am to devils1854
quote:
I dont go by ERA.
quote:
which means he is getting unlucky.
For 3 years?
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:57 am to JLivermore
quote:
Club options in 2020, 21. So if he sucks, you really only have to eat next season @ 7.5m, no?
Correct, more about what you have to give up than money.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:58 am to UltimateHog
quote:
and his metrics haven't matched the actual production for 3 years now.
At some point, it has to be accepted that this is who he is now. He hasn't really been good in about 3 years.
I know Marcus Stroman has had a rough year, but I'd easily take him over Archer.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 11:58 am to VADawg
quote:
At some point, it has to be accepted that this is who he is now. He hasn't really been good in about 3 years.
This.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 12:02 pm to UltimateHog
ERA doesnt factor in parks, defense, or anything like that, that you absolutely should count to see how good a pitcher is.
A pitcher can be exactly the same, but if he has one of the worst defenses, or pitches in a hitter friendly park, his ERA could look a lot worse than if he pitched with a great defense, and in a pitchers park.
ERA is an awful stat for that. Thats why you can look at other things like FIP, WAR, K rate, BB rate, velocity, etc and make an informed opinion from that.
ERA is the big outlier for Archer, and has been for most of his career, so its a bad stat to look at for him, especially when all of his other numbers puts him as one of the better pitchers in the league.
A pitcher can be exactly the same, but if he has one of the worst defenses, or pitches in a hitter friendly park, his ERA could look a lot worse than if he pitched with a great defense, and in a pitchers park.
ERA is an awful stat for that. Thats why you can look at other things like FIP, WAR, K rate, BB rate, velocity, etc and make an informed opinion from that.
ERA is the big outlier for Archer, and has been for most of his career, so its a bad stat to look at for him, especially when all of his other numbers puts him as one of the better pitchers in the league.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 12:05 pm to devils1854
Eh, I'm not a big advanced metrics person, I prefer ERA since that is what really matters. You can call him unlucky for 3 years all you want based on metrics, but he's been mediocre for 3 years now and that is all that matters.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 12:07 pm to devils1854
quote:
ERA is an awful stat for that. Thats why you can look at other things like FIP, WAR, K rate, BB rate, velocity, etc and make an informed opinion from that.
Fip is not park adjusted plus it’s not like the trop is a hitters park. FIP is significantly impacted by strike outs which are nice but not the most important thing. War is a dependent statistic. If you look at fangraphs war than basically you are looking at FIP
Posted on 7/31/18 at 12:08 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
#Braves emerging as favorites for Chris Archer but as we all know anything can happen with #Brewers #Pirates #Dodgers still lurking.
This post was edited on 7/31/18 at 12:10 pm
Posted on 7/31/18 at 12:10 pm to Adam Banks
fip is great because its been proven to be the single best indicator of future performance. but at some point you have to look at a guy who continues to under perform what his numbers say and start to have doubt if he really is that kind of guy. we will see. the fact that all of his numbers suggest hes really good is definitely something that is encouraging. but at the same time, i can see people being skeptical if he will ever actually pitch that way
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