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re: Mel Kiper Jr. Gives Top Draft Grade to... the Browns

Posted on 4/29/25 at 2:31 pm to
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 2:31 pm to
You "believe"? Where'd the number come from, rascal? Did you copy it or fabricate it?
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

And he didn’t just make a prediction, he loudly promoted that shite all throughout the draft


Good. Let me tell you what that means. It means he's his own man, and he makes his own evaluations. Contrast that with Field Yates, the Gavin Newsom of NFL draft coverage. He backpedaled off his projection (1st Round) immediately. That shows you he's not his own man. He does not have confidence in his own evaluations. He's probably just putting together projections based on the consensus of others.
Is it your belief that Mel should've done what Field did?
Where are the threads on Field? Not very interesting, huh? But evidently Mel caught the attention of many.

And on that unfactual number you posted, one thing we do know is that whatever the real hit rate is, it's a whole lot better than the hit rate for the Colorado/Shedeur haters of the MSB.
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
49682 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 7:23 pm to
quote:

Makes you question if he was paid or promised access in return.


I absolutely believe he was paid or promised a cut based upon draft slot if he promoted Sanders. Nothing else explains his actions. He wasn’t that locked in when he had his famous battle with Bill Tobin years ago.
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 7:57 pm to
Here's a better explanation. People with a hivemind mentality, who also love to hate the Sanders family, have problems discerning real authenticity. And because Mel was one of the most vocal proponents of Shedeur, the love-to-hate feelings got directed at Mel.
You guys need to give it a rest with looking for a conspiracy around every corner of media. Internet conspiracies used to be a lot more interesting.
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
24240 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 8:35 pm to
quote:

completing 74% of his throws last season.

I keep seeing this and hype about his record. What these people pimping this stat don't mention is that something like 35 or 40% of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage. Dude threw a metric shot ton of screens to get that percentage.
Posted by Havoc
Member since Nov 2015
39265 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 8:58 pm to
quote:

You "believe"? Where'd the number come from, rascal? Did you copy it or fabricate it?


quote:

Kiper has received sustained criticism for the low accuracy of his predictions. According to Cold Hard Football Facts, Kiper's accuracy for the first round of the 2005–2008 NFL drafts was 32 of 127 total picks (25.2%), which included players that had already signed or were in the process of signing with a team before the draft.[15][16] According to The Huddle Report in 2014, based on Kiper's final mock drafts, he had accurately predicted 23% of the first round picks in the previous five years.[9] Kiper's initial drafts were even lower, correctly predicting 17 out of 256 from 2010–2018.[4] In 2021, FantasyPros ranked Kiper's final mock draft 87th of 182 and Grading the Experts ranked his draft 32nd of 38.[17] In 2023, Kiper correctly predicted only one of the 31 draftees in the first round despite updating his analysis on the morning of the NFL draft after gathering additional information.


ETA: I did say “or lower”
You fricking shill.
This post was edited on 4/29/25 at 9:03 pm
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 9:29 pm to
So you copied it, parrot.
Cite your source next time.
The first link has problems.
First, it's defining a hit as matching the actual draft position. That does not necessarily constitute a hit or a miss as an evaluation because, as it should be obvious, NFL teams miss too.
That's not what a real hit rate is. Not factual.
The BR article itself is a hit. A hit piece on Mel.
The percentage they use is of a very narrow window from 2005-2008. They call Mel's number "abysmal". But the only numbers they cite as better were from Our Lads and Jay Glazer, who they have as 2.6% and 1% better respectively. But this is essentially irrelevant because the whole methodology for this is a joke.
Posted by OWLFAN86
Erotic Novelist
Member since Jun 2004
196566 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 9:37 pm to
Sheduer and Mel suck
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 9:45 pm to
The next link is from a 2009 article that cites the same 4-year window as the BR article, but calls it a 5-year window. Then says his picks at the top of the 2008 Draft were better than Jay Glazer's and Pete Prisco's. But again, this doesn't really tell you about actual hits because it's using a similarly flawed and narrow methodology.

Hollywood ending awaits for LT Oher

quote:

But coldhardfootballfacts. com has the annoying habit of keeping track of Kiper's track record. In the past five years, he's picked just 32 of 127 (25.2 percent). Last year, Kiper was correct on seven of the 31 selections, but two were obvious because Miami had already signed Jake Long with the No. 1 pick, and Chris Long was the obvious choice for St. Louis at the No. 2 spot. Not to pick on Kiper, though. Last year, Jay Glazer of Fox Sports was correct on five picks, and Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com hit on four.
Posted by TackySweater
Member since Dec 2020
24650 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 9:47 pm to
Imagine wimping so hard for sanders and now doing tbr same for the last weeks laughing stock, Mel Kiper.

It’s got to suck to constantly play the victim lol
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 9:57 pm to
The next link is from a 2018 article.
They cite numbers from The Huddle Report. And again, same flawed methodology. This one says it's from a 5-year window.

quote:

In the past five years, based on The Huddle Report data, Kiper has accurately predicted a team’s first-round pick 23 percent of the time; accurately predicted which players will be picked in the first round, regardless of team, 85 percent of the time; and accurately predicted which players will be picked among the top 100, regardless of team, 78 percent of the time.


You didn't say "or higher", did you?
The 85% and 78% numbers are arguably more relevant.
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 10:22 pm to
Same methodology for the next article from 2018.
The next link cites FantasyPros from 2021. They do add much more nuance to their methodology than the others, but it's still not an exact measure.

They currently have Kiper ranked 21st out of 145 for 2025.

2025 NFL Mock Draft Accuracy

This is not an exact measure of hits, though. If he was attempting to get every pick exactly right based on where guys get drafted, the score would probably be different. We're talking about his own personal rankings.
Obviously his score is brought down in these types of rankings by having Shedeur as his #1 QB. Where that ends up as an actual hit or miss is TBD.
Posted by inadaze
Member since Aug 2010
5234 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 10:29 pm to
The last sentence is referring only to the bad methodology, only for the 1st Round in 2023.
Posted by Stamps74
Member since Nov 2017
1533 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 10:52 pm to
Several reports he might go top 5 before draft, no later than 21, but yea it’s insane for Mel to have this take …..
Posted by theballguy
HSV (Dealing only in satire)
Member since Oct 2011
37213 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 10:53 pm to
Mel Kiper
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
37523 posts
Posted on 4/29/25 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

ESPN will fire Mel Kiper in the next few weeks

It's going to be interesting. On one hand, his behavior has been embarrassing, on the other hand, he's probably generated a ton of 'engagement' for ESPN


I don't know how they could fire him for doing what amounts to their business model.

Assuming an intentionally provocative position and holding fast to it is 90% of their programming commentary.
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
139421 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 4:25 am to
quote:

The whole thing was so unprofessional and over the top ridiculous.



It was tough watching an already weirdly theatrical NFL draft but to hear him drone on about Sanders when other picks were going on was very annoying.
Posted by 214
United States of America
Member since Mar 2025
5342 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 4:42 am to
This post was edited on 5/1/25 at 12:21 am
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