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re: Insider Info scandal between FanDuel and Draft Kings?
Posted on 10/6/15 at 10:56 am to BallChamp00
Posted on 10/6/15 at 10:56 am to BallChamp00
quote:
Lol. We got Don Best.
I should have known better than to come out in this place.
I'm not even trying to brag or talk any junk. I've admitted I don't gamble so I'm not that buddy of yours that always wins at the casino. I am making no such claim. In fact, I admitted that once I was told how much my buddies were using my picks I started to feel the pressure and began to pick poorly.
I don't think it is that unrealistic to look at all the different college games that are played over the weekend, all the spreads, and all the O/U to be able to cherry pick a couple games a week and be very successful. I wouldn't even begin to try to pick every game as I know my pick rate would tumble to horrible levels. I usually stay away from the high profile games and I won't even attempt picking NFL games. Too much attention and analysis paid to those games.
1
Posted on 10/6/15 at 11:00 am to SoDakHawk
quote:
Well, I did maintain that average for 2 years,
No.
fricking.
Way.
quote:
65% is still pretty good,
65% is GOAT territory. Unless there is some verifiable documentation there is a misunderstanding here.
Please note, somewhere else on the interwebs there is someone that will claim to be 80% over a year or 2.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 11:19 am to H-Town Tiger
You obviously didn't read how I don't claim to be the all-time greatest prognosticator. I just cherry pick a game or two a week.
Whatever, I'm done with this.
Whatever, I'm done with this.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 11:30 am to SoDakHawk
quote:
You obviously didn't read how I don't claim to be the all-time greatest prognosticator. I just cherry pick a game or two a week.
I am a professional statistican, it's what I do for a living
I spend hours every week and dozens of hours in the offseason developing and fine tuning my college football and basketball models that I use to gamble with.
I had my best year ever last season and finished the year 56.9% against the spread.
If I was hitting 65% I would quit my job and move to Las Vegas.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 11:45 am to SoDakHawk
You don't think it's unrealistic? Well how bout this. The top handicappers in the world who sell picks advertise that they go around 55-59%. If ur picking 65% then prove it for the next 2 months. Then we can sell ur picks and move to Vegas.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 11:47 am to accnodefense
quote:
I had my best year ever last season and finished the year 56.9% against the spread
tScript is always 100% against the spread.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 11:49 am to brgfather129
quote:
@darrenrovell: NFL says teams can't own stakes in daily fantasy companies, but their owners can. Robert Kraft & Jerry Jones have stakes in DraftKings.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 11:51 am to BallChamp00
quote:
who sell picks
Anyone who sells picks is a scammer. If you truly had a system that worked you wouldn't need to sell the picks. Touts who sell their picks are losers who can't cap games.
Touts who sell their picks are a scam and anyone who purchases their picks is a moron. What they do is give a free pick for one game, side A to 50% of their interested client base, and free pick side B to the other 50%.
Then if Side A wins, they give free pick #2 Side A to 50% of those who got the Side A pick, and the other 50% get free pick #2 Side B.
The 50% who are on the winning side in Round 2 just got 2 winners in a row, and then the tout comes in and offers them a "package". That is how touts work.
A lot of websites are guilty of this. For example one website will offer "A Pick, B Pick, C Pick". Then 4 weeks later whichever one of the picks is doing best, they will advertise. "A Picks are 75% in the last 4 weeks!" when B Pick and C Pick are flailing.
Or another site will say "Joe Capper is 16-8 in his last 24 guaranteed picks". Never mind for the season he is 50-55.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:00 pm to SoDakHawk
quote:FWIW, you can't sustain 80%, or even 65% for that matter. You didn't drop because of pressure, you dropped because 80% is impossible, and your number will drop more in the future.
He told me I was right about 80% of the time and that he would pass on my picks to his other buddies and they were all cleaning house. That ruined it for me. Ever since then I know what is going on and feel the pressure and my win rate has dropped to about 65%.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:02 pm to SoDakHawk
quote:1-2 games a week means a sample size of probably 15-30 games. Heck, great job, not trying to rain on your parade or anything. But just know over a large sample size, if you hit 65%, you'll be one of the best in the world at picking games.
Well, I did maintain that average for 2 years, so there is that. 65% is still pretty good, that's good to know.
quote:The best in the world don't hit at your rate, so it is unrealistic over a large sample.
I don't think it is that unrealistic to look at all the different college games that are played over the weekend, all the spreads, and all the O/U to be able to cherry pick a couple games a week and be very successful
This post was edited on 10/6/15 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:07 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:Nah, it's not unrealistic at all to win at a 65% clip picking 1-2 games per week for 2 years. It's just not sustainable long term. I guess some of the best may hit that number, not entirely sure. But the work they put in, it's not something we can do over a large sample. This is very doable if he's only picking 1 or 2 games per week.
65% is GOAT territory. Unless there is some verifiable documentation there is a misunderstanding here
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:22 pm to shel311
quote:
Nah, it's not unrealistic at all to win at a 65% clip picking 1-2 games per week for 2 years.
The original post claimed he won at 80% over two years. Let's assume he picked 1.5 games per week for 15 weeks for two years - 45 games total. Let's also assume the chance of winning long term is 55% (a very impressive long-term win rate for any capper).
The chances of winning on 80% or more of your picks (36 picks or more) is .042% - 4 in 10,000 To put another way, there is a 99.96% chance that you will win LESS than 80% of the time.
If you lower the expected long term probability to 50%, the likelihood of getting 80% or more right over 45 games is slightly better than 3 in 100,000.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:26 pm to shel311
quote:
Nah, it's not unrealistic at all to win at a 65% clip picking 1-2 games per week for 2 years.
I guess it depends on your definition of unrealistic. At a 55% expected win percentage, winning 29 (64.4% success rate) or more games out of 45 is only 13%.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:27 pm to shel311
quote:
Nah, it's not unrealistic at all to win at a 65% clip picking 1-2 games per week for 2 years. It's just not sustainable long term. I guess some of the best may hit that number, not entirely sure. But the work they put in, it's not something we can do over a large sample. This is very doable if he's only picking 1 or 2 games per week.
Last year I had a 4 or 5 week run where I hit 70% during that stretch. But for the season I was 56.9%. Even during my best run ever I was only at 70%.
80% is insane. I have been doing this for years and I have had an 80% week (on weeks where I bet 5 or more games) only a handful of times.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:28 pm to slackster
quote:Sounds more like it was 1 season, and we don't even know if it was an entire season. Very possible it could have been 15-25 picks, not 45.
The original post claimed he won at 80% over two years
quote:
It started a couple years ago when he text me to give him a CFB winner one Saturday. I obliged. Pretty soon I was getting a text from him every weekend. I'd give him a game every weekend. I didn't know if he was betting them or not, I didn't really care and didn't really follow the outcome. This season I asked him while we were tailgating if I was any good at this and if he used my picks. He told me I was right about 80%
Really sounds like 10-15 games, tops.
This post was edited on 10/6/15 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:31 pm to accnodefense
quote:I don't bet lines cause i'm not very good at it and mostly did it for action, and I know I've had many of 7 for 8 type nights, or strung together 3 really good NBA nights/plays in a row before where I probably gambled 25 ish games at around 75%. And again, i'm not even good at it, so i can see it happening over a small sample like it seems he's portraying.
80% is insane. I have been doing this for years and I have had an 80% week (on weeks where I bet 5 or more games) only a handful of times
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:38 pm to shel311
While you may be right, this was what he originally said:
quote:
Personally, I got a pretty decent system going with a buddy. Well, I don't make any money. He gambles, I don't. It started a couple years ago when he text me to give him a CFB winner one Saturday. I obliged. Pretty soon I was getting a text from him every weekend. I'd give him a game every weekend.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:42 pm to shel311
I have explained this. I don't pick every game. One or two a week, tops. The low hanging fruit. The straggler at the back of the herd. My pick rate would drop pretty bad if I tried to handicap every game. I realize this. Yes, I was clipping along at 80% per my buddy who was actually winning the money on picks I was providing. Yes, my rate is dropping, so to say it is unsustainable, you are all probably right.
Honestly though, I don't blame any of you for calling BS. I knew I was going to get that response when I originally typed out the sentence. But did you ever stop to think that those of you who are putting hours and hours into spreadsheets, systems, and formulas that maybe you are trying too hard and over-analysing these games?
Honestly though, I don't blame any of you for calling BS. I knew I was going to get that response when I originally typed out the sentence. But did you ever stop to think that those of you who are putting hours and hours into spreadsheets, systems, and formulas that maybe you are trying too hard and over-analysing these games?
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:43 pm to shel311
quote:
strung together 3 really good NBA nights/plays in a row before where I probably gambled 25 ish games at around 75%
19/25 - 76% - at a 50% expected success rate is still incredibly rare - less than 1% chance of that happening.
I'm not saying you or this other guy are lying, I'm simply putting the numbers out there. Both of you have had insanely lucky streaks - him much more so than you.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:45 pm to SoDakHawk
quote:How many games, would you say?
I was clipping along at 80%
And how many at 65?
quote:I'm the only one taking your side here, buddy.
Honestly though, I don't blame any of you for calling BS. I knew I was going to get that response when I originally typed out the sentence. But did you ever stop to think that those of you who are putting hours and hours into spreadsheets, systems, and formulas that maybe you are trying too hard and over-analysing these games?
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