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re: Insider Info scandal between FanDuel and Draft Kings?
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:45 pm to shel311
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:45 pm to shel311
quote:
quote:It started a couple years ago when he text me to give him a CFB winner one Saturday. I obliged. Pretty soon I was getting a text from him every weekend. I'd give him a game every weekend. I didn't know if he was betting them or not, I didn't really care and didn't really follow the outcome. This season I asked him while we were tailgating if I was any good at this and if he used my picks. He told me I was right about 80% Really sounds like 10-15 games, tops.
This is pretty accurate. I'd put the number at 15-20 games.
1
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:46 pm to SoDakHawk
quote:
Honestly though, I don't blame any of you for calling BS. I knew I was going to get that response when I originally typed out the sentence.
You had an absolutely incredible run, regardless of your strategy.
quote:
The low hanging fruit. The straggler at the back of the herd.
If you can find a line on the game, you can bet it is on the radar of the professional gamblers.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:46 pm to slackster
quote:I was probably more like 40%
19/25 - 76% - at a 50% expected success rate
Which I know hurts my argument for my numbers even more lol.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:47 pm to SoDakHawk
Seems like every week we have a new peasant on the internet claiming they win 80% of the time without proof.
Just lol - it never fails
Just lol - it never fails
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:48 pm to SoDakHawk
The thing that makes people roll their eyes is everybody knows somebody like this. A friend of my got a bookie a few weeks ago because everyone at his work was telling him he gives them winners every week. Sure enough, now that he is putting pen to paper, the success isn't quite there. He's one of these guys who flip flops a ton before every game, so he used to be able to say after the fact that he nailed the analysis. Get in those betting threads and post up. 
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:49 pm to SoDakHawk
quote:
I'd put the number at 15-20 games
Fair enough. Just so you understand how unlikely that was, the chance of winning 16 or more games out of 20 is .59% - slightly less than 6 in 1000.
You were on an amazing streak now matter how you slice it.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:52 pm to shel311
quote:
How many games, would you say? And how many at 65
15-20 over the last two seasons. This year it's been two picks a week and I'm having some fun following it, but like I said am clipping along at 65% for this season so far.
My biggest debacle was picking AZ to beat UCLA a couple weeks ago. I usually stay away from higher profiel games but my friend was out in AZ for the Foo Fighters concert anyway so thought it would add a little excitment to the evening. I had picked against UCLA the week before when Rosen went to crap in the first half and the Bruins only eeked out a 1 point win, so I covered that week. I was trying to ride that pony one more week.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:53 pm to shel311
quote:
I was probably more like 40% Which I know hurts my argument for my numbers even more lol.
.028% chance of winning 19 or more out of 25 games. 3 in 10,000.
If you've had more than one stretch like that, you should probably quit now.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:55 pm to SoDakHawk
Ok. I plan on jumping in the betting thread for the rest of the season and dropping two picks. I'm not talking junk because I will probably crash and burn, but it will be fun. I'll let you guys track it.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:55 pm to slackster
It probably wasn't actually 40%, but it wasn't good enough to be +EV.
quote:I've moved on to DFS, doing extremely well in my 1st season last year with the NBA. I had a ridiculously good ROI, which I'm well aware is not sustainable.
If you've had more than one stretch like that, you should probably quit now.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 12:55 pm to shel311
quote:
65% is GOAT territory. Unless there is some verifiable documentation there is a misunderstanding here
Nah, it's not unrealistic at all to win at a 65% clip picking 1-2 games per week for 2 years. It's just not sustainable long term
This is what I was really getting at
quote:
But just know over a large sample size, if you hit 65%, you'll be one of the best in the world at picking games.
Over 1 season, 65% is very possible but still outstanding, but over 2 I'd think it evens out. 80% over more than a couple of weeks at best is tough to buy.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 1:01 pm to accnodefense
Naw. Not the top ones. They sell legit picks. But they scam u on what they say they get the line for. Crazy how only they fine some lines. Lol
Posted on 10/6/15 at 1:01 pm to SoDakHawk
Yea. Follow the script.
1. ....I win 80%...
2. "No you don't"
3. ...Yes, I do - I'll show you!...
Three weeks later
Disappears...
1. ....I win 80%...
2. "No you don't"
3. ...Yes, I do - I'll show you!...
Three weeks later
Disappears...
Posted on 10/6/15 at 1:05 pm to SprintFun
How ironic is it that FanDuel and DraftKings released a joint statement in response to these allegations?
Posted on 10/6/15 at 1:07 pm to slackster
quote:
The low hanging fruit. The straggler at the back of the herd.
There is no such thing when it comes to betting on sports.
Books aren't going to put out low hanging fruit lines or stragglers at the back of the herd.
I've had to explain this on the SEC Rant many times. Especially Week 2 when everyone was saying Georgia -20.5 at Vandy was free money.
No such thing as free money or low hanging fruit. If it were that easy I'd move to Las Vegas and bet the low hanging fruit and make a living out of it.
I am sure many people have tried just that, moving to Las Vegas and saying "I will just bet that one game a day or the easy locks" and find themselves buried/homeless quickly.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 1:09 pm to BallChamp00
quote:
Naw. Not the top ones. They sell legit picks.
There is no way to know this because the only way to know how well they do is to buy their services.
The "handicapper watchdog" sites are just scams in and of themselves where cappers can pay them to publish good results.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 2:04 pm to GeauxAggie972
quote:ESPN has pulled the sponsored segments from their shows. So that's a small start and maybe a precursor of more to come for you weirdos who watch commercials still in 2015.
To go a whole day, especially a Saturday or Sunday without seeing a single commercial from either site would be a blessing
Posted on 10/6/15 at 2:16 pm to SoDakHawk
quote:
Ok. I plan on jumping in the betting thread for the rest of the season and dropping two picks. I'm not talking junk because I will probably crash and burn, but it will be fun. I'll let you guys track it.
FADE [ON] OFF
Posted on 10/6/15 at 3:22 pm to accnodefense
I have access to a google doc where there picks are listed right as they tweet them out. They are legit that way. But their lines are retarded.
This isn't a watch dog. Lol
This isn't a watch dog. Lol
This post was edited on 10/6/15 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 10/6/15 at 3:25 pm to BallChamp00
Honesty I can't wait til super bowl. Draftkings spebt 20 million in one week of advertising. They have made over 450 mil and have a net profit of $0.
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