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re: Imagine drafting Caleb Williams
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:05 am to BayouBaw84
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:05 am to BayouBaw84
USC will have 1 WR drafted this year and not till day 3.
0
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:07 am to Powerman
He will not be top ten he is not going to work in the NFL unless they put 5 all pro linemen in front of him
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:12 am to LSUNWO1988
Think they only people that are still so high on fields only focus on fantasy output
From a football perspective, he simply hasn’t shown enough to commit to long term. And when you haven’t shown that this close to your second contract, and your team has a chance to draft another top end QB prospect, the writing is on the wall
I’m not writing off fields, but turning down other options at QB based on his play so far, would be far more of a negatively impactful decision than it is to reset the clock on your roster with a new QB at #1 overall
From a talent perspective, it’s undeniable that CWs is more talented, and their value around the league both in current state, and during their draft processes, proves that. And you get 4 years for essentially free to figure out if all those other components matter at all for him being successful
If fields had shown even Trevor Lawrence levels of competence, the bears would be having a much tougher call to make. But the reality is current version of fields hasn’t shown he’s worth building around, despite a couple very high highs in a few games
From a football perspective, he simply hasn’t shown enough to commit to long term. And when you haven’t shown that this close to your second contract, and your team has a chance to draft another top end QB prospect, the writing is on the wall
I’m not writing off fields, but turning down other options at QB based on his play so far, would be far more of a negatively impactful decision than it is to reset the clock on your roster with a new QB at #1 overall
From a talent perspective, it’s undeniable that CWs is more talented, and their value around the league both in current state, and during their draft processes, proves that. And you get 4 years for essentially free to figure out if all those other components matter at all for him being successful
If fields had shown even Trevor Lawrence levels of competence, the bears would be having a much tougher call to make. But the reality is current version of fields hasn’t shown he’s worth building around, despite a couple very high highs in a few games
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:14 am to The Pirate King
quote:
has never played under center
is this 2004 again
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:17 am to BayouBaw84
quote:
more the running around outside the pocket when a lot of times he doesn’t even need to.
Are you sure about that? USC's offensive line was awful last season. A lot of his running was out of necessity. Just look at the Arizona game and onward.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:24 am to nvasil1
Making plays outside the pocket/ outside of structure is one of the best indicators of success for todays NFL.
Only thing I’ve learned is none of know anything about QBs, especially the teams, it’s all just guesswork and dart throws and then hindsight claims of being experts.
Idk if CWs will be good, idk if fields will be good, all I know if fields hasn’t shown enough in 3 seasons to be worth passing on another big QB prospect at #1 overall
Only thing I’ve learned is none of know anything about QBs, especially the teams, it’s all just guesswork and dart throws and then hindsight claims of being experts.
Idk if CWs will be good, idk if fields will be good, all I know if fields hasn’t shown enough in 3 seasons to be worth passing on another big QB prospect at #1 overall
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:30 am to LSUNWO1988
Williams will be fine, and Fields has been awful from the start, but I’d still like to see how Fields would have performed with all the talent they just brought in for their next QB.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:39 am to LSUNWO1988
quote:
You barely gave Justin Fields a chance
Define barely
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:44 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
Making plays outside the pocket/ outside of structure is one of the best indicators of success for todays NFL.
Only thing I’ve learned is none of know anything about QBs, especially the teams, it’s all just guesswork and dart throws and then hindsight claims of being experts.
Idk if CWs will be good, idk if fields will be good, all I know if fields hasn’t shown enough in 3 seasons to be worth passing on another big QB prospect at #1 overall
100%, all of this.
I get that people don't like Williams, but given the options of keeping Fields or drafting one of the top QB prospects, I don't see how Caleb can be considered the worst choice at this point.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:46 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
From a talent perspective, it’s undeniable that CWs is more talented, and their value around the league both in current state, and during their draft processes, proves that. And you get 4 years for essentially free to figure out if all those other components matter at all for him being successful
This. You’re resetting the financial clock. You have potential and a rookie contract. Fields was about to have to get paid. Also the market always dictates the value and what did he fetch, a 6th round pick. That tells you all you need to know.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:51 am to sorantable
quote:
Williams will be fine, and Fields has been awful from the start, but I’d still like to see how Fields would have performed with all the talent they just brought in for their next QB.
Put it this way
If Fields did get this chance next year and crushed it. Best case scenario, he has an MVP type season and you have your QB of the future
But, you likely did not extend him his 5th year option, so you’re going to need to franchise tag him at ~38 mil (likely more next offseason). Even if you assume the Bears have the foresight to know this is coming and did opt into the 5th year option, that’s still a 26 mil dollar cap hit fully GTD and likely going to be looking to extend him for even more money in either scenario
2nd best scenario: fields is bad even with the good roster. You will have created a great roster potentially being let down by the QB position. But hey atleast you didn’t commit long term and you can make a big play at QB with your cap and draft assets. The downside is now you have neither of those QB assets, Williams or Fields.
Worst case scenario: Fields has a Daniel jones level season where he brings you to a short playoff run, you still aren’t exactly sure what he is but you can’t let him walk either. Now you pay him QB1 money on an extension (or the tag scenario) and you may waste another 3-4 seasons finding out who he is depending on that contract and could end up burning this window of young talent and assets
Drafting a QB at 1 however, gives you 4 seasons of a cost controlled asset that you can quickly move on from if he is a disaster, and still have a high quality roster to build around another QB that you take a swing if you determine the QB isn’t the answer.
Being wrong is part of life in the NFL. Difference between the good and bad teams is when you are wrong, how wrong you are, and how committed you are to the wrong answer
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:57 am to BayouBaw84
And people will say "oh that's what Mahomes does," you know who also did that? Zach Wilson
Posted on 3/17/24 at 10:57 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:
Caleb can make plays like Aaron Rodgers...we haven't seen him with a decent O-line. He had to score 50 to win games because of USC's shite defense. Lincoln Riley owes him...NFL draft is always about potential. Did Lincoln ruin it?
You say he had bad olines but at OU he had a great one.
The problem with Caleb is he leaves good pockets too many times. He likes to ad lib and knows it keeps his name in limelight. By doing that he gave his olines a bad rep.
OU was undefeated in 21 when we faced tx. They inserted CW when down and due to some 50/50 miracle catches we won. CW played 8 games (started 7 but saved tx game) and went 6-2. That 6-2 might have been 4-4 if not for some great catches on risky passes (Marvin Mims). Plus we all remember that play where CW took the ball from a stopped RB and got the first down else thats a loss.
Those plays don’t work as well in NFL. I will always give him credit for tx game, if we keep Spencer in we lose that game. But he had some great receivers to throw to that saved us.
I just don’t see his scrambling working as well in NFL. Imagine being his oline. Most qbs the oline has a good idea where the qb pocket will be and they move their defender around that circle. But with CW since he didn’t like to stay in pocket it becomes impossible for oline to know where to push/guide their defender. Sometimes what might like a busted oline play was really a bad qb decision instead.
He has talent. But he’s no AR lol. When the team is losing he’ll come up gimpy with a limpy. Its his way of having an excuse when losing.
He’ll do ok the first 7/8 games until NFL teams get film. Then he’ll decline as they will take away his scrambles and force him to pass which will lead to errors. His instinct is to run with any pressure. In NFL qbs always get pressure often, so thats where he’ll have to change his instinct. Can he?
Posted on 3/17/24 at 11:33 am to OU Guy
quote:
He’ll do ok the first 7/8 games until NFL teams get film. Then he’ll decline as they will take away his scrambles and force him to pass which will lead to errors. His instinct is to run with any pressure. In NFL qbs always get pressure often, so thats where he’ll have to change his instinct.
This is basically what ND did. He destroyed us in 2022, with a lot of Houdini acts/our DEs sorta “over-rushing” him and allowing him to escape. Al Golden with an NFL pedigree made great adjustments in 2023 (and obviously ND’s defensive talent is/was top-notch for college too, which helps) and we were able to significantly limit him.
Quote from one of our LBs post-game:
“Coaches put an awesome game plan in. One of the big things was keeping him in the box. Last year, I mean, we really experienced him getting out, him really playing backyard football where he is scrambling, holding this play, making ten seconds long, and now at that point it's hard to cover downfield and the receivers are getting open. So that was a big emphasis, and I think you could see that we tried to contain him as much as we could in that pocket.“
“We tried to contain him as much as we could in that pocket” is an interesting thing for a college defensive player to say about a QB that’s about to be the #1 pick (and has been touted as “generational”). Caleb has a ton of arm talent and he’s a pretty good athlete. He does have flaws in his game though (that I think are actually kind of weirdly being overlooked because of the weird personality things like the fingernails/crying to his mom, etc. It’s almost like pundits are saying he’s a “perfect” on-field prospect with only character/off-field questions, which I don’t think is true). If he can get them corrected, he could be special. But I think he’s a bit less plug-and-play than some think. We’ll see.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 11:35 am to LSUNWO1988
quote:
You barely gave Justin Fields a chance
Ehhhh
Posted on 3/17/24 at 11:41 am to wildtigercat93
quote:
wildtigercat93
Good post.
The bugaboo of this whole situation is Chicago’s coaching staff.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 11:51 am to sorantable
For sure, was very surprised they didn’t use this as a time for a fresh page on the coaching staff. Similar to the cardinals a few years ago, just nuked the staff to get the best fit with your new number 1 pick. That didn’t work out of course but I think that plan made more sense than trotting out Eberflous again and likely doing the same exercise in a season
I think the front office wants to keep that as another layer of defense. They can save their job by blaming the old coaching staff and getting a new one. Make that call now and you’re losing that layer of insulation
I think the front office wants to keep that as another layer of defense. They can save their job by blaming the old coaching staff and getting a new one. Make that call now and you’re losing that layer of insulation
Posted on 3/17/24 at 12:46 pm to Civildawg
quote:
They gave fields 2 years and didn't like what they saw. Not sure what people want Chicago to do
At some point, you gotta take a long hard look in the mirror and realize it isn’t the bows and arrows fault but the Indians.
I’ve seen it first hand as a lifelong Chief’s fan, 1st round QB busts and 25 years of past their prime’s retreads.
Patrick Mahomes is on a HOF trajectory, none of that would have been possible on skill level alone.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 1:44 pm to BayouBaw84
quote:
They both shined in college because of superior athletic ability and their receivers more Daniels than Williams with the receivers
I was as much of a critic of Daniels as anyone, but he took an astronomical leap forward as a passer this year, even from the beginning of the year to the middle of the year. He was dropping perfect balls down the chimney for touchdowns most of the season.
He may or may not be successful in the pros as the hit rate for QB's is low, but it won't be because coming in he wasn't a good passer of the ball.
Posted on 3/17/24 at 2:24 pm to LSUNWO1988
quote:
You barely gave Justin Fields a chance now you’re drafting a girlirier version with less potential of HOF
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