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Does a 3 loss Ohio State make the playoffs? Because their schedule is brutal.

Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:55 pm
Posted by Dawg Collar
Member since Sep 2026
15 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:55 pm
They already played #1 Texas in Austin and lost by 1 point.

The next 5 games include @Iowa. @Indiana. @USC, vs. Oregon in Columbus.
Then they also have their rivalry game with Michigan.
If they survive all of that with 1 loss (Plus Texas) they would still have to play in the Big Ten Title Game.

They are almost guaranteed to lose 1 more, and probably 2 more.
So does 3 losses get them in?
Probably considering the CFP success of the Big Ten over the last 3 years.
This post was edited on 9/28/26 at 3:19 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216823 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:56 pm to
Nope. Next question.
Posted by Dawg Collar
Member since Sep 2026
15 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:57 pm to
quote:


Nope. Next question.


Alabama got in last year with 3 losses (including a 14 point loss to 5-7 FSU).
This Oho State team is far more talented than Alabama last year.
Of course Alabama getting blown out by Indiana probably won't help the argument for a 3 loss team getting in this year.
This post was edited on 9/28/26 at 2:58 pm
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37972 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:58 pm to
If the pick up a 3rd loss in the big ten title game they will still be in. If the lose 3 in the regular season, they’d almost certainly have to win the big ten title to get in.

quote:

They are almost guaranteed to lose 1 more, and probably 2 more.


They’re going to be favored in every game left on their schedule. They aren’t “probably” going to lose 2 more.
Posted by RLDSC FAN
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
61479 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:00 pm to
I doubt they lose another game. That schedule isn't that daunting
Posted by Dawg Collar
Member since Sep 2026
15 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:03 pm to
quote:


If the pick up a 3rd loss in the big ten title game they will still be in. If the lose 3 in the regular season, they’d almost certainly have to win the big ten title to get in.

If they lose 2 regular season Big Ten games they probably won't be playing in the Big Ten Title Game.
I think UGA, Texas, Ohio State are clearly the best 3 teams in the country.
Would be stupid to punish Ohio State for scheduling Texas and losing by 1 in Austin.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37972 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

Would be stupid to punish Ohio State for scheduling Texas and losing by 1 in Austin


They’d be punished for losing 2 out of 5 games they’ll be favored by a touchdown or more in.
Posted by Dawg Collar
Member since Sep 2026
15 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:06 pm to
quote:


I doubt they lose another game. That schedule isn't that daunting


@Texas
@Iowa
@Indiana
@USC
Oregon at home
Michigan at home
Big Ten Title Game

That isn't daunting?

I don't think that word means what you think it means
This post was edited on 9/28/26 at 2:08 pm
Posted by OKBoomerSooner
Member since Dec 2019
5323 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:10 pm to
I think the only correct answer is that you have to be open to the possibility at this point, and you can examine it more seriously if it happens. I know that’s not a satisfying answer, or much of one at all, but the point of the playoff taking “top 12 teams” is that the line is necessarily relative to what other people have done. So it’s impossible to answer coherently right now if 9-3 vs that schedule “should” get in.

To your point,
• that is a brutal schedule
• the Committee needs to be more open to the idea of taking X-3 or even X-4 teams from the SEC and Big Ten because their schedules are much tougher than everyone else’s
Posted by chalmetteowl
Chalmette
Member since Jan 2008
55678 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

Would be stupid to punish Ohio State for scheduling Texas and losing by 1 in Austin.


Don’t we want teams to win games when they lose by 1?
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
97351 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

I doubt they lose another game. That schedule isn't that daunting


@Texas
@Iowa
@Indiana
@USC
Oregon at home
Michigan at home
Big Ten Title Game

That isn't daunting?


Well Texas already happened so not sure why you included that when you were quoting someone who said they doubt they lose another game. And no, Iowa, USC, Oregon, and Michigan is not that daunting at all. We'll see about Indiana, and the title game will depend on the opponent. It's definitely not some crazy difficult schedule though. But granted its at least harder than Indiana's.
Posted by SEC Doctor
Member since Aug 2024
13092 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:13 pm to
I don't understand the "will they get in" questions this early in the season. No one knows what the records will be when the season is over.
Posted by Chris ALL Capps
Member since Jan 2024
873 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Because their schedule is brutal


That's what Ohio St. fans tell you. This is the first time in awhile that Rutgers or Purdue didn't show up on their schedule so they panicked. They won't lose again until the playoffs.
Posted by Riseupfromtherubble
You'll Never Walk Alone
Member since Jun 2011
40403 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:15 pm to
USC is arse
Oregon in Columbus they'll be favored by 8.5
They're favored by two TDs @ Iowa who still can't do anything offensively
@ Indiana will be a tough game

To answer the question though, probably not. Someone brought up Alabama getting in with 3 losses, but Alabama also had a win @ Georgia. Ohio State's opportunity for a win equal to that was squandered away.

There's also the big 12 issue this year. Forget about BYU. Utah and Texas Tech will meet as two undefeated top 10 football teams in the big 12 title, so they are getting in two.

The SEC is getting in 4 or potentially even 5. Vanderbilt was left out with 2 losses. A two loss Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida, Alabama, Georgia is not getting left out.

So if you're doing the math you got

SEC champ
SEC runner up
Big 10 champ
Big 10 runner up
Big 12 champ
Big 12 runner up
Notre Dame
ACC champ- we will say Miami, but in the event of an upset in Charlotte that's another stolen bid
G5

So that's 9 spots that you can pencil in. If the SEC cannibalizes itself and you've got 4 "big name" 2 loss teams that aren't in the conference title, I don't know how OSU gets in over one of them.

I say all that to say it's a futile exercise. Ohio State probably isn't losing again until January and certainly not twice
Posted by Dawg Collar
Member since Sep 2026
15 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

To your point,
• that is a brutal schedule
• the Committee needs to be more open to the idea of taking X-3 or even X-4 teams from the SEC and Big Ten because their schedules are much tougher than everyone else’s


100%.

Otherwise you can kiss regular season games like Ohio State vs Texas goodbye.
If a 1 point loss on the road vs #1 Texas keeps you out of the CFP then why schedule those games going forward?
Just schedule a nobody in Week 2 like everyone else.
This post was edited on 9/28/26 at 2:18 pm
Posted by theCAW
Polk County
Member since Dec 2023
10278 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

@Iowa @Indiana @USC Oregon at home Michigan at home


Mich, usc and Oregon all
Suck this year

Iowa is above average and Indiana is good but not quite what they were last year.
Posted by LSUGrad9295
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
38670 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

schedule is brutal.
quote:

The next 5 games include @Iowa. @Indiana. @USC, vs. Oregon in Columbus.


Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37972 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

If a 1 point loss on the road vs #1 Texas keeps you out of the CFP then why schedule those games going forward?


If you are a blue blood, you really shouldn’t. But you can’t ask this question in a vacuum either way.
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
27950 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:20 pm to
I bet they win every game you listed
Posted by Chris ALL Capps
Member since Jan 2024
873 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

Otherwise you can kiss regular season games like Ohio State vs Texas goodbye


Have you not noticed all cancelations or talk of canceling future big time ooc opponents this year ? Or the fact that Indiana plays absolutely no one out of conference until 2030 ?
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