re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread

One more note about the Clemson vs Auburn game... It's an 8pm Central kick at Jordan-Hare. Tough opening game situation for a heavily favored Clemson with big expectations.

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Fair enough, I know all of those guys you mentioned have been exposed, a lot of them in that big article that came out a few months ago.

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Yeah that Deadspin article made me hard as a rock. It's about time someone called them out. I can't stand Colin Cowherd and ESPN and the NYT lending credibility to these scam artists.

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Personally I've had a very tough time tailing anyone over the years as well. Have gotten comfortable trusting a few of the quality posters on here over the years on a few sides.

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Agree 100%. The best people to tail are just run of the mill people who give out their plays because they enjoy it and just want to help others and share their insights, not because they are putting chum in the water for their eventual tout path if they hit a hot streak.

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Definitely a lot of truth to what you posted, but SDV seems like a savvy poster and I remember him talking this guy up a little bit last fall, I think he has been pretty solid for a couple of seasons.

I'm probably in the minority but I still think maybe 10% of the "touts" are honest guy...lol

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SDV is the man. His 1 play bombs are sick

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I came up with some mathematical based system in 2007 and it was always bouncing between 56% and 61% year to year ATS.

I'm going back to the original formula because my dumbass thought I could improve on that % and I tweaked it to where it was all over the place. Great one week, in the shitter the next.

6-4 every week? Yes, please!

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Share? Friend?

I haven't figured out the ol' excel spreadsheet simulation stuff. I just read stats/articles/thoughts.

I'll try to join you guys while I have some free time for a month or two. Hopefully I can contribute something worthwhile, but it will take me at least a few days to catch up.

I used to do well with totals 5-10 years ago, before the rule changes and up-tempo offenses turned the game into basketball on grass. Now I basically only bet Overs unless something really sticks out.

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I rode this strategy and this strategy alone to a great 2014. I basically made bets that I was really uncomfortable making, played the opposite of what the "common sense" play was and heavily faded the public. Ended up like +20 units at the end of the year.

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I'm very familiar with this. A friend of mine would play only these plays, and he had crazy (winning and losing) swings. He told me one time he turned $1K into $34K in a month, and lost it all in a week, and I actually believe it. Why? Because I've seen him crush at an 80% clip for a few weeks (with many bets daily), then have the opposite happen for just as long. At first I thought it was just short-term variance, but it happened too consistently, across multiple sports. Unfortunately, after years of tracking, we never could find a "trigger" for the hot and cold streaks.

A week 1 example would be Auburn. My first thought is that I would want at least 10, maybe even 14, to side with them against a powerhouse like Clemson. But, somehow they will probably keep it close, and may even win.

Anyone use BetDSI.com? Looks like they have a 100% bonus for new members which is intriguing. They do a bunch of advertising on Barstool... Only place I've heard of them though.

Tired of Bovada dragging arse putting lines up.

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Not a fraud. Is he even a tout? He and I used to exchange picks a couple years ago up at Westgate but I haven't seen him since the World Series KC bet last year. The guy literally lives the life everyone on the OT claims to live.

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No Vegas Dave isn't a tout like the others. He actually isn't a bad guy. I labelled him as a fraud but that might be a bit too much.

The issue with Vegas Dave is that the sports media thinks that because he A) Lives in Las Vegas and B) Wagers a lot of money on games, that he must be some kind of awesome handicapper that makes a living off of betting on sports.

Does he have good sports knowledge? Yes

Does he bet that much money on games? Yes

Does he have a lot of money? Yes

Is he a long term winner? NO

The sports media treats him like some kind of long term winner deep pockets simply by betting on sports.

No different from Floyd Mayweather. You only hear about his big bets when he wins.

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The stats they use for the variables are elementary and not predicative at all.

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I've yet to figure out what is actually "predicative", if anything.

For NFL I'm hooked on Net YPP differential with a factor and 'true' homefield adjustments... NCAAF is all market-based for me.

I'll delve into the NFL calcs with visuals in those threads.