College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread

The past few weeks during my downtime at work I spend a couple hours capping each game Week 1 since I am going to Las Vegas. I have a 5 dimes account also but I like betting in Las Vegas more because you get your winnings right away.

I am almost done capping the Week 1 games, just have a few more left. Also already have my Excel spreadsheets and macros going too. I have my odds database that I am cross referencing with certain numbers to see if there are any historical advantages.

I won't release my best plays until I have capped every game, but I'll share what I have on your plays. All my shite is on my work computer so I will have to go off of memory.

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Louisville -39.5

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My excel spreadsheets LOVE Charlotte in this one, but based on my actual non-Excel spreadsheet capping, I like Louisville, so I lean their way. The thing is, Charlotte should be better in their Baylor-style offense in Year 2, but I don't know if Louisville with all their experience is the right team for that. However, Petrino is known to take his foot off the gas in games like this early from prior history. Overall, I think there are better games on the board to bet

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Minnesota -11

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Keep an eye on this one. My own capping AND my excel spreadsheets love Minnesota here. BUT they liked them a lot more at -10, which is where the line was 2 weeks ago, than -11. I am worried that by the time I get to Las Vegas on August 28 this one will be at 13. -12.5 is as high as I would feel safe with Minnesota. They just aren't a team built to blow teams out, as bad as Oregon State looks to be.

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Temple -16.5

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My excel sheets and my own capping are leaning Army here. I think Army has their best team under Monken this year, and Temple is replacing a lot of defensive playmakers and this is a tough offense to prepare for with new players. This has all the makings of a low scoring game, so the 16-17 points Army will be getting are valuable.

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Boise St -19.5

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This one is tough. If this game were still scheduled for a Friday Night like it originally was, instead of a Saturday 11:00am kick, I'd like ULL a bit more. My excel spreadsheets like ULL a lot in this one, but based on my capping, Boise State will want to win this one by a decent margin and make a statement early. I think ULL rebounds from last year, but the question is by how much. Boise State can name their score if they play like they are capable, ULL is powerless, only Boise State will prevent Boise State from covering.

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Missouri +11

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Yes. This is one of my favorite plays. Before I capped this one I was leaning WVU. But then I dived into the numbers, rosters, and my excel spreadsheets and everything points to Mizzou. As bad as their offense will be, their defense will keep them in the game. WVU will have offensive problems of their own. Smallwood made that offense work, and he is gone. Not convinced on Skylar Howard. Has all the makings of a 7 point WVU win. WVU will be a team to put in a teaser here if you really want to play them

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Washington -26

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I liked UW more at -24 where they were when I capped the game. -26 is getting into the danger zone. Still, my own capping likes Washington as well as my excel sheets. This is another Minnesota situation. Washington isn't really a team built to blow teams out, even teams as bad as Rutgers will be. The question isn't whether or not they are capable of covering, because they are, the question is whether or not they will keep the foot on the gas to do so. I don't think people realize how big of a dumpster fire Rutgers will be.

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Iowa -28

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I was all about Miami when the line was 28.5 but with the hook gone, its not as appetizing. I think Miami improves quite a bit this year. They were god awful last year, because they were extremely young and inexperienced, but they do have some athletes on that roster. My excel spreadsheets still like Miami in this one, showing that Miami is still a profitable bet even all the way down to +22. My own capping says that this will be a close call, but I still think value is on the side of Miami on this side of 28.

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Nebraska -29

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All over my face and then some. Fresno State is awful, and will continue to be awful. 29 is a high number, but looking at the matchup, and doing my own capping, its a great number for Nebraska. Should be closer to 33. My excel sheets like Nebraska too. Any number at 30.5 or lower is a play on Nebraska.

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Let me know when you book those bets, I'll book them with you

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dcrews

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I have excel spreadsheets with calcs on every game.

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At first I had wildly complex Excel sheets and macros, but realized that I am one person, and no way will I come up with something that is better than what oddsmakers can put out. The amount of advantage I gain using a complex excel macro will not be much more advantageous than keeping it simple. Law of diminishing returns

So I just decided to keep it simple, only have a few variables in there.

i am taking a hard look at miami -55 against fl a&m and georgia southern -55 against savannah state.

id prefer to play the first half lines if i can get 35 or under. both these games have 70-3 written all over them.

so far..
tennessee -22.5 (just to have action opening night)
south carolina +3
tx am -2

will be looking at the following
southern miss +7
wisconsin +10
usc +10.5
ole miss ??? line will change with fsu qb suspended

Alabama -10 vs. USC.

Florida A&M has a damn good coach in Alex Wood. If Ryan Stanley is their starter I'm taking the Rattlers and the points.

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Just use your football knowledge and keep up w/ what's going on and you'll have a good idea what to play. Spreadsheets can't account for game day type variables.

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Using plain "football knowledge" will get you beat in the long run. It might work in the short run for a random weekend in Las Vegas, but to have any chance whatsoever of grinding out a profit you need to have at least some hard numbers to go off of.

The main use of my spreadsheets is comparing previous spreads. I.E. how did Team A with a rating differential of XXX from Team B with the line at XXX line perform. I then calculate the profitability of the bet using that information. I.E. Team A, with a rating differential of Team B of XXX. So I look for all matchups in my database where teams were within 0.25 Standard Deviations of the ratings differential, with a line similar to the line posted, and calculate the results against said line.

So if the result is 11/20 ATS, thats 55%, minus 52.4% which is a profitability result of 2.6%. Or if the result is 18/20 against covering a 10 point teaser, that is 90%, 10 point teaser legs must hit at 81.8% to profit, so thats 8.2% profitability in a 10 point teaser.

It's very crude, and probably not worth much, but it at least gives me something concrete to go off of to counter my personal biases when analyzing a game.

Norte Dame heavy

I don't care for future bets, but I love these two lines.

Charlotte O2.5
Temple U8.5