CFB Week 6 Betting Thread

Iowa starting QB is out

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Iowa starting QB is out

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I saw that but the Iowa Defense is a top unit in the country and their QB the last 7-8 years has been a game manager at-best.

I had yet to evaluate 3 more Friday games and it said that BYU was the best play before Saturday even with Martin out. I'll run through the Saturday card and post them before the weekend.

I have an NFL Week 5 thread posted. A similar method there finished 7-1-1 last week with the lone loss coming with Minnesota -9.5 when Hockenson took a knee at the end of the game at the 1 just inside the 2 minute warning.

What is the end goal for line setters?

Equal $$ on both sides and collect the 10%.

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What is the end goal for line setters?

Equal $$ on both sides and collect the 10%.

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It is an extremely common misconception this is always the goal. Sometimes (a minority of the time) that’s the case. But if their numbers have a game going at a certain spread, even if 80% of bets are a certain way, they’re happy to take that risk (in addition to what they’d get from the vig if it was 50/50 split in bets). They might lose big on particular games, but spread that out over the course of thousands of events annually and they come out way more ahead doing it that way than just getting the vig from 50/50 bets.

FanDuel used to publicly list the percentage of both bets and money for each game on their app. People then caught on that if 70+% of the bets/money were on Team A, the smart bet would be to put your money on Team B, so FanDuel stopped doing it.

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FanDuel used to publicly list the percentage of both bets and money for each game on their app. People then caught on that if 70+% of the bets/money were on Team A, the smart bet would be to put your money on Team B, so FanDuel stopped doing it.

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I track exactly this on my prediction site as well as wins against CLV.

"LSUAlum2001" - record looks pretty good so far, will be interesting if you find a true edge in ATS as I have been running algo's for last year and they are few and far between without heavy trend filtering then if you run that supposed edge against a random null test it will fail. My site list this as well but can't link it here (did last year with free access to TD users but still got anchored). If you want access send me your email and will set up whoever as a beta user to look around.

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FanDuel used to publicly list the percentage of both bets and money for each game on their app. People then caught on that if 70+% of the bets/money were on Team A, the smart bet would be to put your money on Team B, so FanDuel stopped doing it.

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You can still get this info

Draftkings still does it

59% on Dallas -8.5 tonight

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If everyone has it, there are no edges.

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People value different stats and at different weights for power rankings

BYU is a weird one for me.

I like them based on the key metrics that I followed last week (100% match) but my regularized regression model likes Iowa State.

Staying with BYU -9.5, though,

With you on BYU even at -10 (if it moved to -10.5 I would probably flip). I will most likely take the over as well at 46.

From my matchup generator:

Iowa State (3-2, 2-2 against FBS) visits BYU (4-0, 3-0 against FBS). Iowa State scores 33.6 points a game and allows 21.2; BYU scores 37.2 and allows 14.2. BYU is favored by 10 after opening at BYU -14.5. The total is 46 (opened 50.5).

Iowa State's offense succeeds on 41.1% of its plays against a BYU defense that allows 36.9%. BYU's offense succeeds on 52.8% against a Iowa State defense that allows 38.8%.

The bigger play threat of the two offenses is Iowa State (explosiveness 1.32); the defense more likely to give up a big play is Iowa State (1.24).

Iowa State, most recent games: W 45-42 vs West Virginia; L 17-31 vs Utah. BYU, most recent games: W 17-10 at TCU; W 41-23 at Colorado State. Iowa State is +2 in turnovers (7 gained, 5 lost); BYU is +5 in turnovers (7 gained, 2 lost).