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Started By
Message
re: 3 timeouts and you try a 64 yd FG?
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:05 am to Mingo Was His NameO
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:05 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Using the kicking stats I posted its almost exactly the same. Roughly 20%.
This is just flat out wrong lol. You’re using a number that looks at 60+ not 64.
quote:
Nfl teams are 2/42 on attempts of 64 yards or more
0
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:10 am to Ed Osteen
Mingo how is the math you freaking idiot
quote:
Aaron Schatz, a pioneer in NFL advanced stats and the creator of Football Outsiders, described Hackett electing to kick a field goal as “a flabbergasting decision.” Schatz’s win-probability model suggests that with 20 seconds to go the Broncos had a 36.1% chance of victory by going for it on 4th-and-5 compared to only 7.4% by attempting the field goal.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:19 am to lsupride87
Yea I didn't even factor in the fact that seattle would still have about 13-15 seconds and two timeouts even if McManus made the kick.
So kicking there (being the most generous to denver on probabilities) is even worse than I initially thought.
There's really no universe that kicking there makes sense.
So kicking there (being the most generous to denver on probabilities) is even worse than I initially thought.
There's really no universe that kicking there makes sense.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 9:19 am
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:20 am to LSUlefty
Coach would rather put it in the kickers hands for 64 yards than in Wilsons hands in crunch time 
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:22 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
The facts are, once you don't take the timeout immediately, kicking the field goal and going for it likely have about the same EPA.
No, the fact that he didnt take the timeout says he thought making a 64 yard field goal was better odds than running another play and using his remaining timeouts to gain more yards, which is asinine. Once he decides to let the clock run he literally has no other option other than a hailmary
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 9:23 am
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:26 am to Ed Osteen
quote:
Schatz’s win-probability model suggests that with 20 seconds to go the Broncos had a 36.1% chance of victory by going for it on 4th-and-5 compared to only 7.4% by attempting the field goal.
lmfao so 5x as likely to win if they go for it but dingo is in here telling us were all retarded
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:08 pm to hubertcumberdale
Lol. Radio just said Russel Wilson has converted 56% of his 4th down conversions between 4-6 yds.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:48 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
Even if you just think about what play has a higher likelihood for success. I think five yards is easier.
The team has a 47% chance of making the 4th down.
64 yard FG? 4%
Posted on 9/13/22 at 6:52 pm to Ed Osteen
quote:
go the Broncos had a 36.1% chance of victory by going for it on 4th-and-5 compared to only 7.4% by attempting the field goal.
Coach is probably thinking that all they had to do was kick a field goal, as opposed to make the 5 yards, and then try a slightly easier field goal
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:35 pm to chalmetteowl
64 is almost impossible if you go off stays.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 10:27 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Nfl teams are 2/42 on attempts of 64 yards or more
I understand.
I also see kicks that are 50+ that would be good from 65 on a weekly basis now.
Kicking isn't what it used to be. Go look at Cade York's FG to win this weekend. It would have been good from 65 no problem.
If you think the current FG% is anywhere near 2 in 42, you simply haven't been paying attention.
Having said that, I'm not saying that the decision was a good one. I would have gone for it.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 11:15 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
lmfao so 5x as likely to win if they go for it but dingo is in here telling us were all retarded
Keep in mind that win likelihood probably goes up significantly if they don’t let 40 seconds bleed away before attempting their fourth down play.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 11:16 pm
Posted on 9/13/22 at 11:18 pm to moneyg
quote:
If you think the current FG% is anywhere near 2 in 42, you simply haven't been paying attention.
Yeah, it’s now lower by a bit.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 11:37 pm to tzimme4
quote:
why you don't go for it and get the first down.
if you don't make first down you lose.
if you make the kick you win.
it made the distance.
wide left a couple feet.
I only saw it live.
looked close
Posted on 9/14/22 at 1:01 am to LSUlefty
What were they gonna talk about? He wanted to kick
Wilson fricked up all night
Wilson fricked up all night
Posted on 9/14/22 at 5:01 am to JohnnyKilroy
just checking in to say I understand math and would have deep-fried a football and eaten it before I did what Hackett did on Monday night
Kicking there is damn near inexcusable.
Some of the posts in this thread advocating the FG as a statistical toss-up are eye-crossingly bad
Kicking there is damn near inexcusable.
Some of the posts in this thread advocating the FG as a statistical toss-up are eye-crossingly bad
Posted on 9/14/22 at 5:23 am to tzimme4
quote:
Lol, no clue why you don't go for it and get the first down.
Dumber part was draining the clock. If you think you have a better chance of making the FG than the 4th and 5, kicking is the right call.
But do it right away and use the timeouts to get the ball back.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 10:33 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Kicking there is damn near inexcusable.
Some of the posts in this thread advocating the FG as a statistical toss-up are eye-crossingly bad
watch the video .
ball is long and high enough. wide left. 5 feet.
we saw a wide left from 36 yards this week.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 10:42 am to CelticDog
quote:
if you don't make first down you lose.
if you make the kick you win.
it made the distance.
wide left a couple feet.
I only saw it live.
looked close
none of this changes the statistical stupidity of Hackett's decision.
oh, and the kick missed. so it doesn't matter how far it went
Posted on 9/14/22 at 10:44 am to CelticDog
quote:
is long and high enough. wide left. 5 feet.
Right. It’s damn near impossible to make that. Which is why the odds are so low. Just because it looks like he almost made it doesn’t mean the odds are high.
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