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Started By
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re: 3 timeouts and you try a 64 yd FG?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:22 pm to TackySweater
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:22 pm to TackySweater
quote:
If someone somehow kicks a 70yd fg, which sets the bar at 100%, does that mean the correct decision is to kick a 70yd fg because the odds are 100%?
Of course not, but 1 attempt and 144 attempts aren't really the same thing.
Look, it's pretty simple. You likely aren't making a 64 yard field goal. You also likely aren't converting 4th down and then making a 57 yard field goal. Acting like the field goal was some egregious decision is incorrect.
shite on the guy for letting 40 seconds run off the clock before calling the timeout, that was certifiably dumb.
2
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:23 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
You have to calculate the chances of getting a first down and then making a 59 yard field goal opposed to just a 64 yard field goal.
Why did it have to be a 59 yarder?
They had about a minute left on the clock and 3 timeouts when they were faced with 4th and 5.
If they pick up the first down they have time for at least another 3 or 4 plays.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:31 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
You also likely aren't converting 4th down and then making a 57 yard field goal.
What down it was doesn’t come into play here. It’s one play to get more than five yards. Those odds aren’t that low.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:35 pm to LSUlefty
Seattle says, thanks for the Win and the 1st and 2nd round draft picks next year
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:39 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Look, it's pretty simple. You likely aren't making a 64 yard field goal. You also likely aren't converting 4th down and then making a 57 yard field goal. Acting like the field goal was some egregious decision is incorrect.
So what have we settled on for a reasonable percentage chance that McManus making this kick?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:47 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
So what have we settled on for a reasonable percentage chance that McManus making this kick?
He’s dead set on 20% chance to make a 64yd fg lol
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:57 pm to TackySweater
If we're sticking with 20% on a 64 yarder the math is clear that going for it and trying to make a 57ish yarder is the correct move.
20% for the 64 yarder and about 27% for the conversion and 57 yarder. So a 35% increase in probability to win if they go for it there and for some weird reason let the clock run down instead of calling their second time out to run another play.
20 seconds left and two time outs. You can get off 2 plays pretty easily with another 2-3 seconds left on the clock for the game winning attempt. Probably more like a 53-55 yarder since they would have had time to run at least one more play. That raises the probability to around 30%. So about 50% more likely than hitting a 64 yarder.
20% for the 64 yarder and about 27% for the conversion and 57 yarder. So a 35% increase in probability to win if they go for it there and for some weird reason let the clock run down instead of calling their second time out to run another play.
20 seconds left and two time outs. You can get off 2 plays pretty easily with another 2-3 seconds left on the clock for the game winning attempt. Probably more like a 53-55 yarder since they would have had time to run at least one more play. That raises the probability to around 30%. So about 50% more likely than hitting a 64 yarder.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 12:03 am
Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:04 am to JohnnyKilroy
This dude wants to hear nothing about that. He’s dead seat on a made up 20% number for the 64yd fg and that’s all he cares about.
Getting five yards and kicking a shorter fg is beyond impossible according to his math.
Getting five yards and kicking a shorter fg is beyond impossible according to his math.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:06 am to JohnnyKilroy
Before tonight: McManus was 25% on 60+ yard kicks, 59% on 50-59 yard kicks.
think its fair to say, I would take my odds on converting the 3rd down (8/15 that night overall) and a sub 60 yard kick
think its fair to say, I would take my odds on converting the 3rd down (8/15 that night overall) and a sub 60 yard kick
Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:16 am to htran90
Kicking something that only TWO guys have made in history (and one was at Mile High in the thin air) vs. Using your timeouts and 1 minute left with a 4th and 5?
Hmmm? Decisions, decisions?
Hmmm? Decisions, decisions?
Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:22 am to htran90
quote:
Before tonight: McManus was 25% on 60+ yard kicks,
Not sure of the true stats, but based on what's been posted in this thread, McManus is more like 14% on kicks of 60+ (1/7) coming into tonight.
So if we use just McManus' instead all NFL kickers when calculating the probability of hitting a 64 yarder then going for it is over 100% more likely than hitting the 64 yarder.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 8:13 am
Posted on 9/13/22 at 12:26 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
McManus is more like 17% on kicks of 60+ (1/6) coming into tonight.
So what. This is a 64yd. Not 60, 61, 62, 63. That 17% factors in those other 4 possibilities.
(Not directed at you, just pointing out)
Posted on 9/13/22 at 1:12 am to TackySweater
Lets not forget, he got two tries...one basically without a rush and missed both.
If a guy misses badly on a practice kick, you go back to being sensible. They still had TO's to work it down the field.
If a guy misses badly on a practice kick, you go back to being sensible. They still had TO's to work it down the field.
This post was edited on 9/13/22 at 1:13 am
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:48 am to lsupride87
quote:
Make 64 yarder: 33%
Nice try here. That isn’t close to being accurate.
This is the point. You and he disagree on the likelihood of making that kick. Your point about "only twice" really isn't a good one. That opportunity doesn't present itself much. And, in a different game situation, teams punt it.
My instinct was definitely to take the timeout early and go for it.
But, I'd bet that the Broncos had more faith in that kick than you did (given you think it's way below 33%)...and I bet the statistical move is pretty close either way you go.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:50 am to TackySweater
quote:
Converting a five yard first down with your superstar qb you just traded for has to be decent odds though
My guess is about 70%
Posted on 9/13/22 at 7:57 am to moneyg
quote:Nfl teams are 2/42 on attempts of 64 yards or more
That opportunity doesn't present itself much. And, in a different game situation, teams punt it.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:07 am to lsupride87
I hoping they give my son a shot to break some records this Friday, 52 is school and 58 is state. Kicking off of turf on the coast…so one direction should give a yard or two more. He’s made plenty of 60s at this school since that’s where he trains before camps. End of half or end of game is likely the only time the state record would be attempted.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:13 am to LSUlefty
IMO the guy just got scared, there are no analytics or percentages to justify the decision. He clearly hasn't built up a rapport with Wilson yet if he didn't trust him with the ball in that scenario. And if he kicks it, he thinks the pressure is off him and on the kicker because the game wouldn't end on an unsuccessful call by him.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:15 am to moneyg
quote:
and I bet the statistical move is pretty close either way you go.
It's not remotely close. Going for it should be a no brainer for an NFL team with the analytical staff up in the booth.
Posted on 9/13/22 at 8:16 am to moneyg
quote:
I'd bet that the Broncos had more faith in that kick than you did
In that case anyone involved in the decision should be fired, because McManus has never in his career made a kick longer than 61 yards.
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