- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: 3 timeouts and you try a 64 yd FG?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:41 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:41 pm to SirWinston
quote:
But many of those attempts came from kickers that didn't really have the range.
McManus clearly has the range so his odds are higher than the total attempted / made stats
That's not really how stats work. You either go by the stats or you don't. The facts are, once you don't take the timeout immediately, kicking the field goal and going for it likely have about the same EPA. You have to call the timeout immediately and go for it, but he didn't so the decision to kick isn't egregious.
1
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:41 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
You'd be too busy crying on the internet about your involuntary incel status
I’m not going to fault a kicker for missing two 64 yard kicks anymore than I’d fault a quarterback for missing two Hail Marys.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:42 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I’m not going to fault a kicker for missing two 64 yard kicks anymore than I’d fault a quarterback for missing two Hail Marys.
Because you are a retard. One of those is extraordinarily more likely than the other
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:44 pm to TackySweater
Brandon McManus career history on 62+ yard FGs
62 yards - 2016 - MISS
62 yards - 2018 - MISS
63 yards - 2021 - MISS
64 yards - 2019 - MISS
64 yards - 2022 - MISS*
70 yards - 2021 - MISS
*tonight
62 yards - 2016 - MISS
62 yards - 2018 - MISS
63 yards - 2021 - MISS
64 yards - 2019 - MISS
64 yards - 2022 - MISS*
70 yards - 2021 - MISS
*tonight
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:46 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Because you are a retard. One of those is extraordinarily more likely than the other
I beg your pardon Mingo, but it’s pretty well established here that you are the retard.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:47 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I beg your pardon Mingo, but it’s pretty well established here that you are the retard
At least I understand math
The chance they get the first down is right around 50% and the make percentage from 57 yards is right around 40%. The make perctage from 64 yards is right about 20%. The chances you win going for it or kicking it are almost exactly the same.
This post was edited on 9/12/22 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 9/12/22 at 10:53 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I’m sure that’s happened way more times than a 64 yarder. Again the record is only five yards further.
The record is 66 that Tucker bounced off the crossbar last year.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:00 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
The make perctage from 64 yards is right about 20%
20% seems incredibly high for a 64 yarder considering it would be the second best all-time and 60+ are relatively easy to block.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:01 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Because you are a retard. One of those is extraordinarily more likely than the other
quote:
According to ESPN, only 9.7% of Hail Mary attempts are completed. Between 2009 and 2020, there were 193 attempts with 16 produced touchdowns.
Extraordinarily?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:01 pm to saintsfan92612
quote:
The make perctage from 64 yards is right about 20%
This is absolutely not true lol
Are you just making shite up?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:02 pm to saintsfan92612
quote:
20% seems incredibly high for a 64 yarder considering it would be the second best all-time and 60+ are relatively easy to block.
Im just using the published stats
This post was edited on 9/12/22 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:03 pm to TackySweater
quote:
Extraordinarily?
Over double?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:08 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
How many attempts?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:11 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
There have been 10 65-yard attempts in NFL history. 0 were made. 0%
There have been 10 64-yard attempts in NFL history. One was made (in Denver). 10%
There have been 29 63-yard attempts in NFL history. 6 were made (2 in Denver). 20%
There have been 5 made 62 yard field goals. No idea how many attempts.
Had this game been in Denver, maybe it would be a little more forgivable.
There have been 10 64-yard attempts in NFL history. One was made (in Denver). 10%
There have been 29 63-yard attempts in NFL history. 6 were made (2 in Denver). 20%
There have been 5 made 62 yard field goals. No idea how many attempts.
Had this game been in Denver, maybe it would be a little more forgivable.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:14 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
There have been a total of 22 - nope, as of Nov. 15, 2020 we have the 23rd - successful (of around 144 attempted) NFL field goals of 60+ yards.
So this is showing attempts over 60 yards. And the numbers shows it’s 15%. Your graph doesn’t show only 64yds.
You have to also factor in how many were attempted at 64yd. The number is very low because THE LIKELIHOOD IS CLOSE TO ZERO. There’s a reason why nobody does it.
Above post shows 64yds is 1/10.
We have 144 opportunities for a Hail Mary and a 10% conversion rate.
You wanna make a wager on the % for converting a 64yd fg over 144 attempts? Lol. Hint. It ain’t gonna be 10% lol
This post was edited on 9/12/22 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:17 pm to TackySweater
quote:
THE LIKELIHOOD IS CLOSE TO ZERO.
According to you, the likelyhood is about 15%
quote:
There’s a reason why nobody does it.
Bad arguement. Coaches have been making negative EPA decisions for eternity. College football is WAY worse, but NFL coaches are bad too, but getting better.
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:18 pm to moneyg
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:19 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
According to you, the likelyhood is about 15%
So we just ignore sample size now? Cool.
If someone somehow kicks a 70yd fg, which sets the bar at 100%, does that mean the correct decision is to kick a 70yd fg because the odds are 100%?
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:20 pm to Kansas City King
quote:
Peyton Manning reacting to that decision was great!
As I've said, at least twice, not calling the timeout immediately is the decision everyone should be mad about. The closer you can get the field goal, the better decision going for it is. Once you are out of time, going for it or not has about the same win %
Posted on 9/12/22 at 11:21 pm to LSUlefty
Wilson hated Seattle because he wanted his coach to trust his ability to win a game...
to only come to a place where his coach didn't trust him to win the game
to only come to a place where his coach didn't trust him to win the game
Page 5 of 10
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News