re: Zillow House value is trending down wth

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My friend is an appraiser and he says Zillow is fairly accurate assuming you have sales in your area

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Your friend is correct. The thread is interesting. Realtor.com may or may not be "more" accurate than Zillow, but they seem to use similar models. It's a bit like analysts "buy ratings". Sometimes they are dead on. Sometimes they miss by a mile.

Same with appraisers.

CSB: We refinanced one of our homes several years back. The refi appraisal came in very low. Didn't matter as a principle was covered. Loan rate was very good. So we just took it. Two months later MrTaxMan gave us his own property value re-eval, and his own reappraisal. There was a $600K difference between the loan appraisal and tax appraisal!

Suffice it to say, we had some fun at expense of the government on that particular tax reappraisal.

Both realtor and zillow were more accurate than either human appraisal though.

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I don't know how accurate zillow normally is but it's about 30K shy of what I could sell my home for if not more

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Right. They straddle realtor.com on ours. Until we sell, my hope is they are off on the lower est, and . . . . under on the upper estimate.

Seems like makings for a good study though. Compare predictions vs results. Just like election polling.

I have a few friends in real estate.

At least here in Tampa, they say new permits for construction have slowed significantly. Appraisals are down 5-10% from last year. Home prices have leveled off and in many cases are going down. Particularly in the $250K and up segment. They also say homes are taking longer to sell. By that they said a home that literally would get an offer the day it was listed only a year ago typically stays on the market for 7-10 days now. Still not bad.

They don’t sound too doom and gloom; but, all say there’s a correction coming or that has already started. They fear another interest rate hike will really make things tough.

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An appraiser does not adjust for the size of a 1 car garage vs 4? There were not comparable sales within a typical range and temporal period? I find this and other anecdotal, one-off experiences hugely informative.

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Of course they adjust. I said "enough". I personally would never buy a house with a 1 car garage ever again. So a 2 car isn't worth $4000 more, its worth $0 to me. Most of them consider something like a garage as all even value. For example you add $5k for a single garage, $10k for a double, and $15k for a triple. Well that's not how it works at all. Appraisers generally go more by tangent info. Realtors go off of price per sq ft and then their gut.

I agree with you appraisers are "generally" better. The difference though, is that I can find a realtor with active listings or sold listings in my neighborhood of choice and contact them. They KNOW.

An appraiser may be better in general but I've had appraisers from 45 minutes away. Many places 1-2 streets over can be a completely different price point and neighborhood, but only be 1-2 blocks by crow. I've had multiple appraisers use properties that should have had absolutely no effect on mine. A realtor would know this.

Again, I'm simply saying unless you live in the neighborhood and you are a realtor talking to active buyers then you really have no idea. Its a very difficult thing to get an accurate value until it is on the market.

ETA: The garage example was not the best. Another thing no one considers is floor plan/ layout. HUGE difference in value. Realtors would know this. I'm not trying to rep realtors, I'm simply saying if you have absolutely no idea how real estate values work the best thing would be to get an estimate from all of the above.

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Anytime you can find a realtor who works an area or community exclusively vs random lottery drawn appraiser by a lender my money is always on the realtor.

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Nowhere in my post did I ever indicate that the OP should call an appraisal management company. It’s a bit on the disingenuine side to suggest that I would suggest something like that while discussing the best means to achieving the OP’s end. But I digress.

I have had a very good friend in the past two months contest an appraisal. Another went out and got a different appraiser for his needs altogether. There are one off, anecdotal stories about this process that will no doubt abound.

I’ve stated my reasoning here. I’ve detailed it a bit. But I’m not gonna repeat myself in response to anecdotal evidence that amounts to someone having a problem with an appraisal in approximately 10% of the time they conduct a transaction. In reality I can find an issue with an appraisal and try to pick at the pull in the sweater to bump value all day. Likewise an underwriter-good or bad-can destroy a loan with their tricky tack bullshite reviews if you aren’t careful.

At the end of a day, an appraiser evaluates a structure or piece of property’s worth within the context of the community and market conditions present within said community. It is a very specific, very niche job. A realtor can conduct market analaysis to help you arrive at these numbers yes.

But see how far you get with any attempt to borrow money in order to pay for a piece of property with the market analysis paperwork. You’ll be laughed at. Am I saying the realtor is useless? Well I think they are but for a host of other reasons (LOL). They do have their place and they do have some insight. But an appraisers opinion is the one that ultimately counts.

So why start anywhere else?

Everyone here is being such a bitch.


"Zestimate" = "Zillow Estimate"

Not intended to be an actual appraised value, but a reasonable computer-generated estimate based on many factors.