re: XOM has been trying to kiss March 15 this week.

Up until 2014 XOM made $5-10B/qtr more cash from ops than spent on capex. After 2014, coverage dropped to $0-5B/qtr, until 2019. Since then they have spent almost $0.5B more on capex than generated from operations, per quarter. And that is before dividends.

So what have they done? Sell assets and add debt, swinging XOM's balance sheet from essentially no debt (after cash) to over $50B. Production has dropped from almost 5 mmboe/d to 4 mmboe/d. What can they do? The market has clearly sniffed out that the dividend is not sustainable. Yield is now over 10%. It’s reminiscent of $COP in 2016. Dividend was not sustainable & market knew it. COP cut it from 74c to 25c in 1Q16. XOM in a different position though, almost unique in the market; certainly unique within energy. On 2Q20 earnings call, they reported that “something like 70% of our shareholder base is retail investors”

Simplest course of action, keep selling assets where they can and backfill cash flow needs by continuing to add more and more debt at remarkably low rates. Hope commodity prices improve drastically, which is not much of a strategy. Hard to see how they improve their position absent a dramatic increase in commodity prices, for which is an environment in which there are far better stocks to own

For a shareholder, you really disagree with some fundamental beliefs they have. Have you read their energy outlooks the last couple of years?

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Why will it be "back"? Why does it have to be "back"? What does "back" mean?

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I’m not an expert, but my gut feeling is -

- just like the 80’s and early 90’s, small producers will go under, shut down smaller / older refineries, won’t be able to borrow to drill

- populations in third world will continue to increase along with a demand for energy

- state governments will realize more electric cars mean more of a demand on electrical infrastructures and results in huge reductions in gasoline taxes for road maintenance , thus will reduce regulations and purchase tax incentives for purchase (Note recent article posted on OT about Volvo study showed an electric version of the XC40 needs to surpass 115,000 miles before the CO2 associated with production and usage starts becoming less than the gasoline version)

- the virus impact will go away

- oil companies will tighten their belts and make smarter decisions

- new product slates will be developed

Will oil go back to $100 per barrel? I doubt it. Will they be profitable companies capable of paying good dividends and growth? Yes

Just my opinion.

Google “ExxonMobil outlook for energy.” There’s a pdf that should come up.

I’ve lost all gains since I bought in in March. Man this is gonna be a long long long hold

I unloaded my XOM at a loss a little while back mainly because of the opportunity cost. Not because I don’t think XOM will bounce back. But it’s not going to rebound soon.

My money can grow elsewhere making up for the loss and then some and I’ll readdress buying back into XOM at that point. I feel this price point for XOM will still be around months from now.

Refining margins are hardly improving. U.S. refiners are down an average ~25% over the past month. They are sick. The oil market is sick. And the demand recovery has seemingly hit a lull. More pain ahead.

Some chemical margins are up. Mostly based on supply not coming online that was expected

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i dumped every O&G position i have. not becuase i think it could find success in the future, but because your money is better off somewhere else.

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I have too over the past few years other than one small spec play. It's been dead money for too long.