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re: Will the markets be back in the green on Monday?

Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:12 am to
Posted by Athletix
Member since Dec 2012
5134 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:12 am to
Lol
Posted by Nation of Buga
Sandy Eggo
Member since Aug 2014
2239 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:57 am to
For about 10 minutes.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 1:20 pm to
Biden
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
88758 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

Biden


Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
86305 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 1:24 pm to
This was the market reaction when Biden won those northern states

Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
5052 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 2:16 pm to
The market now seems to be in that high volatility state where it is just reacting to whatever pokes it on a given day.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 3:16 pm to
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135378 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

The market now seems to be in that high volatility state
Yep.
Took some off the table today.

Picks from last week were up 10-20%. Gallus gallus domesticus, but had to cash some of that.

We are still in front of some downside news IMO: bigger virus numbers, school closures, supply disruptions, earnings rpts, etc.

Still buying dips at this stage.
Posted by Athletix
Member since Dec 2012
5134 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 4:01 pm to
Seems like a day traders wet dream. Market running up and down in huge swings day to day. You’d have to imagine there’s gonna be another big run down at some point when more virus news comes out. Then, right back up cause...why not
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36537 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

Seems like a day traders wet dream. Market running up and down in huge swings day to day. You’d have to imagine there’s gonna be another big run down at some point when more virus news comes out. Then, right back up cause...why not



Glass is half empty for you perpetually, isn't it?
Posted by Zilla
Member since Jul 2005
10641 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 4:25 pm to

quote:


Glass is half empty for you perpetually, isn't it?


why do you say that ? it was a very neutral type post? I went back and read a lot of his previous post and they seemed the same to me ?
Posted by Athletix
Member since Dec 2012
5134 posts
Posted on 3/4/20 at 4:30 pm to
quote:

Glass is half empty for you perpetually, isn't it?


Why you riding my posts so hard? Do you think what I posted is in correct? or is it that I don't have sunshine and rainbows in every post that upsets you? Stop clutching your pearls every time I post
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
86305 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:05 am to
Here we go again
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:25 am to
Not really sure why you’re being downvoted. That’s pretty much what’s going on: erratic price action and high volatility.

I have to admit though, as a premium seller, I’m enjoying the increased IV and the $ that come with it. Just have to avoid price moves outside of expected ranges (short strikes), so I don’t get run over as the train goes back & forth.
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6534 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:29 am to
quote:

You’d have to imagine there’s gonna be another big run down at some point when more virus news comes out. Then, right back up cause...why not




Then right back up because why not??? You mean you wouldn’t expect the market to rebound after an emotional sell off on overblown news?
I guess someone will always be trying to a bigger deal out of something than it really is.
Posted by Athletix
Member since Dec 2012
5134 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:42 am to
quote:

I guess someone will always be trying to a bigger deal out of something than it really is.


And that’s the crux behind why I’m getting downvoted. I truly believe the virus is a bigger deal than you and most other people. Anyone doubting now that we are gonna have 10s of thousands of cases in the US? I get vast majority of people don’t think this virus is a big deal, but do you folks think the public will mimic that view point when the virus is spreading in their area?

We are basically waiting on a vaccine, because there are too many cases worldwide to stop. If you stamp out the virus in one area, what happens when that country opens its border back up? In the case of China, if they truly have eradicated the virus. What happens when they try and reopen travel to the rest of the world? Another infection spread. So, either stay quarantined for months (not economically reasonable at this point), or just deal with the virus as it infects your population. The later is kinda scary, and it’s essentially the route the US is taking.

I don’t think this is the bubonic plague, and all signs point to a mortality rate of .3%-1%. Probably much closer to .3, but with how infectious the disease is and the lack of therapeutic/vaccine, has made me pretty concerned. Unless warm weather can slow this thing down or we whip up a vaccine in the next few months, we are going to see a massive spread worldwide.
Posted by Zilla
Member since Jul 2005
10641 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:45 am to
100% agree with everything you said... I'm 90% cash including 401k.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135378 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 10:17 am to
quote:

... I'm 90% cash including 401k.
I hear you. It's tough. Bought BA last week at $288 (IMO that is a great price). Then it dropped to $270, bought again, doubling down. Sold that position at $290. Repurchased today at $269. Sitting on a ~$278 cb. Just one of a litany. Crazy market.
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 10:19 am
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 10:57 am to
BA is one of my best underlyings right now. 54.5 IV at the 100th percentile. Selling 252.5 weekly puts. At 252.5, I don’t care if it gets put to me or not... unless there’s an announcement of a coronavirus outbreak in the Seattle Boeing plant. Ruh roh
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6534 posts
Posted on 3/5/20 at 11:29 am to
quote:

. I truly believe the virus is a bigger deal than you and most other people


We know. I’m saying you are being over emotional. Most of the world isnt cramped in as closely quartered as china. It’s being over blown, with your estimates of .3-1% its like a moderate to severeIsh flu as the worst case.
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 11:58 am
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