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Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:58 pm to castorinho
quote:It’s definitely nothing like the dot com bubble but free cash flow is down and debt is up. If everyone is still saying “we’ll explain how profitable we’re going to be later” that’s not going to be received as well.
You guys need to stop comparing these two. Look at earnings.
If there is a “crash” it will be because we’ve spent all this money on a technology that is insanely deflationary.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:08 pm to Powerman
quote:This will sound hyperbolic but I’m a little concerned that these companies could be worthless.
Anthropic and OpenAI
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:11 pm to beaverfever
quote:I can definitely see the problems that open source presents.
This will sound hyperbolic but I’m a little concerned that these companies could be worthless.
Could be a matter of “when” and not “if”.
How will they compete?
It comes down to paying for Sovereign AI, proprietary data, regulatory concerns, etc.
Will it be enough?
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:14 pm to beaverfever
Surely a worthwhile take but I’ll counter with this:
Come up with a game plan to “use AI” tonight and use the frontier models and then attempt to use the Chinese open source models.
Let us know how it works out and which one was easier to use.
Come up with a game plan to “use AI” tonight and use the frontier models and then attempt to use the Chinese open source models.
Let us know how it works out and which one was easier to use.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:37 pm to jefforize
Yeah fair. I just think if everything continues on the current path, the first job that the AI lab companies will take will be their own. It’s a technological singularity. And technology is immensely deflationary. It’s hard to make money by creating tools that make everything obsolete, including yourself.
I don’t know though. Just thinking out loud more than anything.
I don’t know though. Just thinking out loud more than anything.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:44 pm to beaverfever
Certainly a lot of uncertainty. Exciting times
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:45 pm to ZZTOP
Bring it. Got plenty of cash to dump into it and plenty of runway until retirement to watch that rebound.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 1:18 am to bayoubengals88
there is some comedy in this thread - show me the hundreds of equivalent companies to E toys and ask jeeves.
The difference between a world calm, and Nvidia couldn't be more stark if you actually looked at the numbers.
It is so apples to oranges - It's rather lazy argument.
The difference between a world calm, and Nvidia couldn't be more stark if you actually looked at the numbers.
It is so apples to oranges - It's rather lazy argument.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 8:51 am to NotStupid
quote:
quote:
You site Oracle; however, that is a pretty good example of a company that has other lines of busines and isn't solely tied to AI.
If Oracle was well capitalized then Moody’s wouldn’t have downgraded them to a level above junk.
1) They aren't junnk, they are still investment grade (althought lowest rating with a negative outlook)
2) Let's pretend they are BB+ (highest level of junk) that is still a pretty well capitalized company, other companies that are BB+ are Ford and Occidental Petroleum. Additionally, even at a junk rating Oracle is infintiely better capitalized (wiht more access to capital) than dot com companies ever were.
I do think things might be overheated but I don't think this crash will be at the same magintude of dot com.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 10:00 am to whodatigahbait
quote:This is different because the dot com situation was just valuation nonsense. You could feel it then. This is systemic leverage. It NEEDS to work. I don't necessarily think there will be a problem but if there is one, the ingredients are there for it to be quite a bit worse than the dot com bubble popping.
I do think things might be overheated but I don't think this crash will be at the same magintude of dot com.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 10:04 am to beaverfever
I did not have any money in 2000 so the AI crash is bigger for me
Posted on 7/30/26 at 10:13 am to StonewallJack
I think even if the monetization of AI disappoints a full blown crash isn’t the base case. I just think the hyperscalers that have been carrying the market for years would absorb that disappointment and they’d be dead money for 5-10 years.
Meanwhile, the rest of the S&P would probably kill it because they would have had their productivity gains subsidized by those hyperscalers.
Meanwhile, the rest of the S&P would probably kill it because they would have had their productivity gains subsidized by those hyperscalers.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 10:13 am to ZZTOP
quote:
AI may end up being a nothing burger, or at least not the game changer people think it will be.
It is undoubtedly not a nothing burger. In 6 months, the way I do my job has completely changed and I'm 10x faster.
Whether it leads to some utopian society where all resources are abundant is a different story.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 10:14 am to TigahsOnTop
Yeah AI is very real. How it plays with the market and the broader economy is what’s tbd.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 10:37 am to ZZTOP
me to the market rotating back (fingers crossed) into tech, chips, AI where I am heavily invested:
please don't leave me.
please don't leave me.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 12:21 pm to NotStupid
quote:
and Dems winning in 2026 will also not be good either.
Good thing that's not happening.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 12:34 pm to beaverfever
the more advanced that AI becomes, the more likely market panics become. Whether that changes the buy/hold/DCA strategy in the long term is the question that I have.
In other words, will free cash flow matter going forward?
In other words, will free cash flow matter going forward?
Posted on 7/30/26 at 5:10 pm to TIGERSby10
quote:
Good thing that's not happening.
Kalshi has the odds of Dems winning House at 83% as of today.
Posted on 7/30/26 at 5:14 pm to NotStupid
quote:Well if Kalshi has it, it must be a done deal.
Kalshi has the odds of Dems winning House at 83% as of today.
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