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Which crash will be bigger? The .com Crash or the AI Crash?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 4:36 pm
Nasdaq dropped 70% over an 18 month span or so during the .com crash.
That would put the Nasdaq below 8,200.
Of course in 2000 they didn't have unlimited QE to bailout bad investors.
They just had to take their lumps.
That would put the Nasdaq below 8,200.
Of course in 2000 they didn't have unlimited QE to bailout bad investors.
They just had to take their lumps.
11
Posted on 7/29/26 at 4:38 pm to ZZTOP
Retail is likely to prop up demand at a higher level this time around.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 4:38 pm to ZZTOP
Man, this’ll be fun!
Posted on 7/29/26 at 4:39 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Retail is likely to prop up demand at a higher level this time around.
Retail is small potatoes.
Plus retail investors usually buy at the top and throw the towel in at the bottom.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 5:00 pm to ZZTOP
There's a reason everyone and I mean EVERYONE is trying to build more chips, data centers, power grid buildout. This is a wide open race and there are only going to be a handful of winners and a ton of losers.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 5:28 pm to Triple Bogey
quote:
There's a reason everyone and I mean EVERYONE is trying to build more chips, data centers, power grid buildout. This is a wide open race and there are only going to be a handful of winners and a ton of losers.
Just like Railroads, Automobiles, The Internet
The Internet was a guaranteed game changer.
AI may end up being a nothing burger, or at least not the game changer people think it will be.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 5:36 pm to ZZTOP
bottom signal
every time Norway shows up under a new handle and talks about shorting and making marriage threads on the OT, things tend to skyrocket after
every time Norway shows up under a new handle and talks about shorting and making marriage threads on the OT, things tend to skyrocket after
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 5:47 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 5:39 pm to ZZTOP
It’s more about the timeline than anything else.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 7:16 pm to jefforize
No joke, NVDA around a 20 forward p/e, and people talking bubbles and crashes
Posted on 7/29/26 at 7:19 pm to ZZTOP
You guys need to stop comparing these two.
Look at earnings.
That's not to say there aren't companies just riding the wave and not bringing any value. But generally speaking this comparison is lazy
Look at earnings.
That's not to say there aren't companies just riding the wave and not bringing any value. But generally speaking this comparison is lazy
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 7:22 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 7:28 pm to castorinho
The AI crash might happen eventually
People forget that the dot com crash was largely due to the "last mile problem"
I'm not convinced that there is a similar trap for AI, although...with the sheer volume of Capex with the build out, I struggle to see how all the players will get a real return on investment. There might be a zero sum game between "AI only" companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Alphabet and Meta have the luxury of being so big without AI even in their portfolio that they could stomach some losses. See the Metaverse as an example for Meta. They survived a huge capex that produced essentially nothing. I'm not sure OpenAI can continue operating at a massive annual loss because they have nothing to fall back on. They have first mover advantage but their path to profitability is an uphill battle.
People forget that the dot com crash was largely due to the "last mile problem"
I'm not convinced that there is a similar trap for AI, although...with the sheer volume of Capex with the build out, I struggle to see how all the players will get a real return on investment. There might be a zero sum game between "AI only" companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Alphabet and Meta have the luxury of being so big without AI even in their portfolio that they could stomach some losses. See the Metaverse as an example for Meta. They survived a huge capex that produced essentially nothing. I'm not sure OpenAI can continue operating at a massive annual loss because they have nothing to fall back on. They have first mover advantage but their path to profitability is an uphill battle.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 7:52 pm to Powerman
quote:Enter Daddy Jensen.
I'm not sure OpenAI can continue operating at a massive annual loss because they have nothing to fall back on.
The market hated the 250bn back stop that Nvidia provided over the weekend. I agree. We’ve created another too big to fail scenario, which is ultimately, unfair.
I hate Sam Altman. He’s a horrible ceo.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:32 pm to ZZTOP
The AI crash will be worse bc there’s far more concentration at the top this time around. Oracle going into near junk bond status will be the Lehman of this cycle. The SPCX IPO will also mark the top.
Ed Zitron will be the Michael Burry. He’s figured it out. When you dump all your free cash flow into something that has little marginal return, and you are using accounting tricks and circular financing in the short term to prop up the spend (one company books $5 billion revenue immediately, while the company that pays the $5 billion only shows it as 1/5 of a depreciating expense), it will massively overinflate near term earnings. But there’s nothing here to monetize it. It’s a race to the bottom.
Trump is out in 2028 and Dems winning in 2026 will also not be good either. And yeah Social Security will run out of funding in 2032. The debt is way worse now than in 2000. Housing market still frozen.
The Buffet Indicator and Schiller PE have never not mean reverted over a 130 year market cycle.
Ed Zitron will be the Michael Burry. He’s figured it out. When you dump all your free cash flow into something that has little marginal return, and you are using accounting tricks and circular financing in the short term to prop up the spend (one company books $5 billion revenue immediately, while the company that pays the $5 billion only shows it as 1/5 of a depreciating expense), it will massively overinflate near term earnings. But there’s nothing here to monetize it. It’s a race to the bottom.
Trump is out in 2028 and Dems winning in 2026 will also not be good either. And yeah Social Security will run out of funding in 2032. The debt is way worse now than in 2000. Housing market still frozen.
The Buffet Indicator and Schiller PE have never not mean reverted over a 130 year market cycle.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:37 pm to NotStupid
Registered today and just decided to hop into an AI discussion on the money board eh.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:38 pm to bayoubengals88
Sam Altman does suck but I have to say, I think their product has improved. I was a fan, then a hater, but after using their stuff recently… I notice substantial improvements
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:39 pm to NotStupid
quote:
The AI crash will be worse bc there’s far more concentration at the top this time around. Oracle going into near junk bond status will be the Lehman of this cycle. The SPCX IPO will also mark the top.
Ed Zitron will be the Michael Burry. He’s figured it out. When you dump all your free cash flow into something that has little marginal return, and you are using accounting tricks and circular financing in the short term to prop up the spend (one company books $5 billion revenue immediately, while the company that pays the $5 billion only shows it as 1/5 of a depreciating expense), it will massively overinflate near term earnings. But there’s nothing here to monetize it. It’s a race to the bottom.
Trump is out in 2028 and Dems winning in 2026 will also not be good either. And yeah Social Security will run out of funding in 2032. The debt is way worse now than in 2000. Housing market still frozen.
The Buffet Indicator and Schiller PE have never not mean reverted over a 130 year market cycle.
Not sure I agree on the public market side. Most of the companies are much better capitalized than those companies in the dot com era.
You site Oracle; however, that is a pretty good example of a company that has other lines of busines and isn't solely tied to AI.
Now could the stock re-rate and give back its AI gains - sure; however, I don't see the absolute carnage you saw in 2000.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:43 pm to jefforize
quote:
Sam Altman does suck but I have to say, I think their product has improved. I was a fan, then a hater, but after using their stuff recently… I notice substantial improvements
Well, if their one month ARR is higher than the previous quarter combined, it’s a good sign.
I can tell you one thing. Gemini sucks.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:47 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Gemini sucks.
Absolutely disappointing but, it can and will get better. Goog isn’t going to give up in this arms race.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:50 pm to whodatigahbait
quote:
You site Oracle; however, that is a pretty good example of a company that has other lines of busines and isn't solely tied to AI.
If Oracle was well capitalized then Moody’s wouldn’t have downgraded them to a level above junk.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 8:53 pm to NotStupid
quote:So you’re going to stick with this statement and tell us that QQQ will drop below 140/share?
The AI crash will be worse bc there’s far more concentration at the top this time around.
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