re: What Is There To Be Bullish About?

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What if all the bad news you cited is already priced in?

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The Dow wouldn't be down over 1k since Friday's open.



People are starting to wake up to the fact that you just can't optimism your way out of constant high inflation and energy prices, especially when the Fed tossed out all its tools years ago.

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Stocks only go up ok.

You should hold on them forever because gosh darn it they will get back to where they started.

Eventually.

Maybe in 5 years or so.

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This, but not sarcastically or ironically.

If you're less than five years from retirement, you are in a different basket of risk and should plan accordingly.

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This type of response is futile on the MTB. Most folks on here are market-timers with a short-term perspective and shame those of us who understand that time-horizon and risk allocation are correlated.

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It is absolutely the opposite. 90% of the people here just do things by the book and just dollar average into the market every month for eternity. Nothing wrong with that, it works.

I am not part of that group and never have been. I look for asymmetrical bets that pay off while maxing out the 401k for no other reason than tax purposes.

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I would say 90% of the investing/trading/markets posts/threads on this board center around fear, crypto, short-term time horizons, market timing, and stock picking...

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Add in buying penny stocks and i'd say your pretty accurate

I work in container imports. We are always on the front end of what's happening as we are essentially the start of the US/Global Supply Chain. I'm not smart enough to piece together what it means in the big picture, but always look back and think, "yep, makes sense".

Container rates have plummeted the last 12 weeks. There was no Back to School or Holiday peak as there typically is and there isn't going to be. I'm getting nightly updates on rate decreases and excess capacity out of China. Customers we are talking to are ordering 1/10th of the goods they have the last 36 months. Either over inventoried finally or sales have dried up. Consumers can spend more dollars on experiences/service vs product which has shifted the market as well.

I expect a very cold winter in the CPG space. Especially with a lot of companies coming off record highs the last 2.5 years.

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I expect a very cold winter

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Funny you should mention that... LINK ]A ‘Tsunami of Shutoffs’: 20 Million US Homes Are Behind on Energy Bills: Surging electricity prices spur worst-ever crisis in late utility payments.

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About 1 in 6 American households are behind on their utility bills, the highest number on record, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

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I know that's not what you were referring to, but it made too good of a segue for me to pass up.

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Container rates have plummeted the last 12 weeks. There was no Back to School or Holiday peak as there typically is and there isn't going to be. I'm getting nightly updates on rate decreases and excess capacity out of China. Customers we are talking to are ordering 1/10th of the goods they have the last 36 months. Either over inventoried finally or sales have dried up. Consumers can spend more dollars on experiences/service vs product which has shifted the market as well.

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GDP has contracted this entire year thus far while inflation has remained high. Producers have been bringing in more money for selling fewer goods, but when you adjust those profits for inflation you see they are either making only a small profit or losing money altogether (another aspect of this economy no one seems to be talking about).

For example: July 2021 retail sales were $617.7B. For July 2022 retail sales were $682.8B. How is this generally being portrayed? As a whopping 10.3% increase YoY.



But taking inflation into account ( BLS inflation calculator) we see that just to break even on YoY retail sales would need to be $670.36B. So $682.8B isn't really a 10.3% increase, it's only a 1.9% increase. With sustained high inflation, this adjustment matters.

So we have an economy where consumers are spending more to buy fewer things while the price for energy continues to rise (excepting ICE fuels, currently) and inflation remains high. We're also in a period where liquidity is drying up as the Fed has had to reverse course on QE and get into QT (interest rates are moving up, meaning fewer borrowers).

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I look for asymmetrical bets that pay off

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We all do, but many people realize those are incredibly difficult to predict with any consistency.

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We all do, but many people realize those are incredibly difficult to predict with any consistency.

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Fair, but they still exist. And I would disagree with that statement. I was getting 40% cash on cash returns after the 2008 crash and everyone was telling me how dumb i was getting into RE.

Bought the majority of the Bitcoin I have when it was $3,000 - $5,000 a coin and heard the same thing.

The average person does average things and won't push their chips in when a great opportunity presents itself.

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Bought the majority of the Bitcoin I have when it was $3,000 - $5,000 a coin and heard the same thing.

The average person does average things and won't push their chips in when a great opportunity presents itself.

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The problem is that not many people have the liquidity and cushion you do to take the risks you do. You made some great bets that have significantly paid off but could have certainly gone the other way.

I think you are trying to tell people who can't afford to take the risks you are to take the risks you are, if that makes sense. Your post here is a perfect example of something most people absolutely cannot afford to do:

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Yup. Which is why I have not been shorting. Just moved to all cash (except my Bitcoin).

Looking for sub 15k Bitcoin and a 25% or more drop in the S&P 500.

If those don't happen, I'll miss the run up and look for the next opportunity for passive yield.

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I would lose my job and potentially get sued if I told my clients to "wait for a 25% drop in the S&P before putting your cash back in the market"...

For every one of you that takes massive risks and wins, there are probably hundreds or thousands that take what they perceive as equally lucrative or worthy risks and lose.

ETA: To be clear, there is nothing wrong with your strategies. My point is simply that you can't expect the vast majority of investors to have the risk-taking capability as you and it would be unwise for them to take the same risks if they can't afford to have miss-after-miss-after-miss until they hit a big win.

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ETA: To be clear, there is nothing wrong with your strategies. My point is simply that you can't expect the vast majority of investors to have the risk-taking capability as you and it would be unwise for them to take the same risks if they can't afford to have miss-after-miss-after-miss until they hit a big win.

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What? you mean sitting on your cash for 2 years waiting for the big crash is not a great strategy? I'm no financial Advisor but i'm beating the returns on my 401k right now by a 4% .Don't get me wrong i have a few stinkers in my portfolio but also picked up some winners as well when the dip came in June.Have to take a few chances i totally agree with that however i do have a family and Financial responsibilities so that does limit my chance taking. Not going to lie this market is tough trying to figure out what to do. Just glad i dont have to answer to any clients dealing with their money