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Started By
Message
re: Time to sell or short Apple IMO
Posted on 7/21/15 at 3:58 pm to Louie T
Posted on 7/21/15 at 3:58 pm to Louie T
I had this strong feeling that I should short AAPL today. I knew that China's market hadn't been as strong, and that would hurt their iPhone sales. This quarter is usually their weakest, too. Plus, the watch hasn't been as popular as people imagined.
But that would have been a short-term play. It'll recover in time.
But that would have been a short-term play. It'll recover in time.
0
Posted on 7/22/15 at 8:24 am to Lawyers_Guns_Money
I didn't say that, moron...analysts said it.
Posted on 7/22/15 at 8:35 am to goodbuds
quote:
All the analysts were saying buy Apple it'll be the next Netflix. I remember when Netflix was $71 and I almost bought some shares. Then it went up to $700. Last week they had a 6 for 1 stock split.
I dream about Apple going to 700, like Neflix did, but I doubt it'll happen.
Posted on 7/22/15 at 8:42 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
First earnings since OP.
Seems I was pretty accurate.
Big picture, Nasdaq is up 4% from my call and Apple is down 3.5% (opening prices for both today).
The strength in the broader market makes the 3.5% decline a bit bigger in context.
Anyway, talking about a 3 month time period. I would say short covering and profit taking at a 5-6% decline around this time.
quote:
1. I think I-phone sales will suffer some now.
2. Apple watch will be a failure.
Seems I was pretty accurate.
Big picture, Nasdaq is up 4% from my call and Apple is down 3.5% (opening prices for both today).
The strength in the broader market makes the 3.5% decline a bit bigger in context.
Anyway, talking about a 3 month time period. I would say short covering and profit taking at a 5-6% decline around this time.
Posted on 7/22/15 at 10:38 am to goodbuds
quote:
I dream about Apple going to 700, like Neflix did, but I doubt it'll happen.
I can see it getting up to $200 at some point. I just don't ever see it going to $700 again after the split. We'd calling Earth planet Apple if that happens. Of course, I have no idea.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 9:30 am to windshieldman
4 months in, over a 10% decline so far.
Little profit taking may be in order.
Current price: 113.70.
Little profit taking may be in order.
Current price: 113.70.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 9:53 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 10:47 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Little profit taking may be in order.
Better do so. There's going to be a ton of buy interest at these levels.
Its not a fundamental short. It just isn't.
I will agree the volatility has been nice if that's your thing.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 11:06 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
Yep great call. People are leaving in droves and smartly so.
- no momementum in China
- iPad sales continue to decline
- it's highly unlikely the iwatch will ever meet revenue expectations
- smart phones are at a level of technological maturity that many people are not upgrading as often.
- Samsung is making better phones and lowering the cost to purchase..
I see AAPL dropping to 105-108
- no momementum in China
- iPad sales continue to decline
- it's highly unlikely the iwatch will ever meet revenue expectations
- smart phones are at a level of technological maturity that many people are not upgrading as often.
- Samsung is making better phones and lowering the cost to purchase..
I see AAPL dropping to 105-108
Posted on 8/4/15 at 1:54 pm to rocket31
I still think it has room to drop, but some profit taking is called for at this point.
Speaking of, article from cnn.money from just a little while ago.
LINK
Speaking of, article from cnn.money from just a little while ago.
LINK
quote:
Apple is now down 15% from the all-time high it set in April.
So Apple (AAPL, Tech30) is already in correction status -- down more than 10% from a peak. If it drops much further, it could be in its own personal bear market -- a decline of 20%.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 3:38 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
I upvoted you OP 
Posted on 8/4/15 at 4:20 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Apple is now down 15% from the all-time high it set in April.
Apple's all-time high was in February 2015 not April 2015. The article's author not knowing that should tell you how much you should trust it. When a company is buying back a lot of its shares Market Cap is what you should be looking at for highs and lows.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 4:34 pm to lsu13lsu
I sold off about 1/3 of my position a couple of months ago as it had grown to an excessive percentage of my portfolio. I REALLY want to buy it back now!
What are others thinking?
What are others thinking?
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:00 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Very ballsy call. I didn't put much faith in your call either. But, here you go.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:16 pm to Ole War Skule
I think we are now in the correction that I mentioned in this thread a couple of months go. The correction is presenting a buying opportunity for stocks, including apple but think it is still too soon in the correction process to buy.
I plan to add back to my position in AAPL and other stocks over the next couple of weeks, depending on how the correction plays out. I usually do it in stages in case the correction is shallower than expected.
I plan to add back to my position in AAPL and other stocks over the next couple of weeks, depending on how the correction plays out. I usually do it in stages in case the correction is shallower than expected.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 6:20 pm to Jag_Warrior
Well, it was/is a short term play.
Apple still trades at a low valuation compared to it's peers and obviously has an insane amount of cash, is paying a good dividend, buying back stock, etc. All great fundamentals.
However, they have to innovate and come up with something or the stock will keep dropping. IPhone sales will decrease, they have already slowed. Too much quality competition now. Apple is too dependent and vulnerable to the drop that we all know is coming. Also, I looked at the apple watch, which was the "next big thing" for Apple and it is just not going to take off. That has been obvious to me from the beginning. You could give me one for free and I would say meh, what the hell am I going to do with this and just toss it aside and never wear it.
Inovation isn't easy and I think apple trends lower still. It's fundamentals are too solid to not respect though. Hence the profit taking and moving on from a short position with one more leg down.
That is my thinking at least as it was when I started the thread.
Apple still trades at a low valuation compared to it's peers and obviously has an insane amount of cash, is paying a good dividend, buying back stock, etc. All great fundamentals.
However, they have to innovate and come up with something or the stock will keep dropping. IPhone sales will decrease, they have already slowed. Too much quality competition now. Apple is too dependent and vulnerable to the drop that we all know is coming. Also, I looked at the apple watch, which was the "next big thing" for Apple and it is just not going to take off. That has been obvious to me from the beginning. You could give me one for free and I would say meh, what the hell am I going to do with this and just toss it aside and never wear it.
Inovation isn't easy and I think apple trends lower still. It's fundamentals are too solid to not respect though. Hence the profit taking and moving on from a short position with one more leg down.
That is my thinking at least as it was when I started the thread.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 6:22 pm
Posted on 8/5/15 at 7:39 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
It appears to be stuck. This would lead me to believe the trade is an iron condor. That is if you wanted a conservative trade. I'm not going to do it, but I'm very temped.
Posted on 8/5/15 at 8:18 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
You could give me one for free and I would say meh, what the hell am I going to do with this and just toss it aside and never wear it.
People said this about iPods too FWIW. I'm gonna wait till they get past the first version to pass judgement on the apple watch.
Posted on 8/5/15 at 9:05 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:That's really the biggest thing. They're stuck with that costly chain around their necks. The watch is eating up expense for manufacturing and marketing, but I just don't see sales ever taking off. They need to abandon it, and I'm not sure they're willing to.
Also, I looked at the apple watch, which was the "next big thing" for Apple and it is just not going to take off. That has been obvious to me from the beginning. You could give me one for free and I would say meh, what the hell am I going to do with this and just toss it aside and never wear it.
Posted on 8/5/15 at 9:08 am to blueboy
I have a feeling that watch will be a Xmas gift for a lot of ppl this year. I'd wait for Q4 results to make a better assumption of the watch.
Posted on 8/5/15 at 9:44 am to blueboy
quote:
That's really the biggest thing. They're stuck with that costly chain around their necks. The watch is eating up expense for manufacturing and marketing, but I just don't see sales ever taking off. They need to abandon it, and I'm not sure they're willing to.
You realize they have more cash than they know what to do with?
They made 18 billion in Q4 2014, 13 in Q1 and are expected in the 10-12 range for Q3. That's net income.
Sure OPs short term play has worked out, but this is not a long term short.
Their sales will be extremely strong for Q4, like always and especially when they come out with newer versions of Iphone and Watch.
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