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re: Time to sell or short Apple IMO

Posted on 8/5/15 at 10:49 am to
Posted by Iosh
Bureau of Interstellar Immigration
Member since Dec 2012
18941 posts
Posted on 8/5/15 at 10:49 am to
The difference is there isn't really a proven niche for a smart watch. There were MP3 players before the iPod, the market was just very fragmented. And more broadly they were filling an established "pocket music" niche of walkmans and transistor radios.

Same with the iPad, tablets had been around for a while, and it's arguably an extension of the Newton and earlier PDA devices. Plus it a more broad sense it displaced ultraportable laptops for people needing casual portable computing.

But there isn't really a proven niche for smart watches. In fact watches have been on the decline for several years because of smartphones, and now you're trying to reverse that trend with what is essentially a wrist-mounted smartphone (except less capable and more expensive).
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
19443 posts
Posted on 8/5/15 at 11:01 am to
quote:

ut there isn't really a proven niche for smart watches. In fact watches have been on the decline for several years because of smartphones, and now you're trying to reverse that trend with what is essentially a wrist-mounted smartphone (except less capable and more expensive).


Ever heard of Fitbit?

There is a niche, they just need to make it cheaper/add more usable features to it.
This post was edited on 8/5/15 at 11:56 am
Posted by dagrippa
Saigon
Member since Nov 2004
12171 posts
Posted on 8/5/15 at 11:19 am to
They are cool to check/respond to texts. You can answer calls and have conversations (looking like Dick Tracy). Calendar etc. I use mine to control my appletvs. Overall If it were $150 they'd sell like crazy. At this price point, they are just gadgets.

They will figure it out, though.

quote:

Same with the iPad, tablets had been around for a while, and it's arguably an extension of the Newton and earlier PDA devices. Plus it a more broad sense it displaced ultraportable laptops for people needing casual portable computing.


Also never underestimate what other people might see useful in a product. I thought a tablet was a waste of money. Now...I have owned four and it's my most used possession. TV, Scheduling, reading, etc.
This post was edited on 8/5/15 at 11:22 am
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
65245 posts
Posted on 8/5/15 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

I have a feeling that watch will be a Xmas gift for a lot of ppl this year. I'd wait for Q4 results to make a better assumption of the watch.
I have met precisely one person who would buy one, and they've cost a lot to produce, develop and market. Maybe future versions will offer something that you can't just do with your phone, but so far, you need a phone just to operate one. And fewer people even wear watches.

To the other guy, I'm not saying that Apple is going to crash and burn. I just don't think they've reached their correction price yet.
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
19443 posts
Posted on 8/5/15 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

To the other guy, I'm not saying that Apple is going to crash and burn. I just don't think they've reached their correction price yet.



That may be true. But everything I've read has said it is way undervalued compared to its peers.

It's the most heavily traded stock there is and makes up a MASSIVE percentage of the DOW and S&P.

If you like trading small windows of volatility, its a good one, but the fundamental "weaknesses" you and others talk about, I just cannot buy into the way things stand.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 8/5/15 at 5:50 pm to
quote:

They need to abandon it, and I'm not sure they're willing to.


I have no intention of buying one for myself... and my first Apple product was a Mac Plus bought in 1986. But still, I'd say that it's a bit early to call it quits, since we're just now seeing the first version.
Posted by Iosh
Bureau of Interstellar Immigration
Member since Dec 2012
18941 posts
Posted on 8/11/15 at 4:05 pm to
Well hello there China
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 8/11/15 at 5:52 pm to
I made some nice, quick money on SCO. So in an attempt to play it back to the house, today I went long AAPL at 113.65, with a mind to sell Aug 117 calls around $1.30 by mid day tomorrow. We shall see if my buy signal was real or false. If this one is false, I'm firing my financial advisor (me).
Posted by Dodd
Member since Oct 2003
21122 posts
Posted on 8/11/15 at 6:04 pm to
It's time to buy AAPL
Posted by CajunTiger92
Member since Dec 2007
2867 posts
Posted on 8/11/15 at 8:37 pm to
Nice down move today and can't argue with taking a position here. I think 110 or below is still a possibility within the next week.
Posted by BarberitosDawg
Lee County Florida across causeway
Member since Oct 2013
13193 posts
Posted on 8/12/15 at 6:50 am to
Bump...
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 8/12/15 at 7:04 am to
Yeah, currency devaluation yesterday hurt. With China's current problems, I see more of the same to come.

Apple still has another leg or two down in it IMO.
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 8/12/15 at 8:56 am to
$110 today. Down 13% from OP (4 months and 1 day).

More devaluation from China...
This post was edited on 8/12/15 at 8:58 am
Posted by lsutraderman
USA
Member since Aug 2015
98 posts
Posted on 8/12/15 at 9:09 am to
Apple is way below its 200 DMA, i mean technically looks broken, but obviously its apple so its fine but algos run the markets and they will be sellers till technical levels are reclaimed. In the meantime Id suggest picking a price you don't mind owning apple at and selling some puts down there bc the IV has expanded drastically there is fear galore out there, realistically everyone and their mom is long the name and a washout is healthy.
This post was edited on 8/12/15 at 9:11 am
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 8/21/15 at 10:28 am to
$108.5 at moment.

FTR, time for covering for me. Out at about +15% in 4+ months.

(pigs get slaughtered and what not)
Posted by Iosh
Bureau of Interstellar Immigration
Member since Dec 2012
18941 posts
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:11 am to
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
19443 posts
Posted on 8/21/15 at 12:11 pm to
Well good call OP.

Here to eat crow, this is a frickin' bloodbath.

Just gotta hold strong and start buying more back on the way down.
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 8/21/15 at 12:19 pm to
Yeah, you can't short apple for long periods due to their track record of innovation, but I don't think there is anything special in the pipeline right now, so it seemed like a safe enough play. They are still too strong of a company with a ridiculous balance sheet. Good article today about how they could add 5% to earnings per share with ease for years and years just buying back stock with the 200+ billion on their balance sheet. Essentially, they could just take about 30-40% of the shares off the market at anytime with their excess cash and easily support a higher stock price.

A company that strong is not one to short for a long time. I do still think their long run of crushing estimates and huge growth is over if or until they innovate with a new "must have" product. They are in mature markets now with no guarantee of that kind of innovation in the future.

Just saying the easy money has been made with Apple unless or until something changes.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 12:23 pm
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39786 posts
Posted on 8/21/15 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Just saying the easy money has been made with Apple unless or until something changes.


Easy money today is selling vol.
Posted by Scoop
RIP Scoop
Member since Sep 2005
44583 posts
Posted on 8/21/15 at 6:04 pm to
I could copy and paste posts here from 5 years ago and they would match your posts here almost word for word, Miami. That was back when the market cap was $200 or $250 billion.

It's the same song and dance. Apple's done....it's over.

Did you see the Q3 earnings? Largest company on the planet was from Q3 2014 to Q3 2015 up $37B to $50B revenue and profit up $7.7B to $10.7B.

I don't pop in here much but when I do, some form of this thread always seems to be here and has for years.

They never seem to hold up other than for short stretches.

Your OP seems prophetic but your reasons posted in the OP have not borne out and the beating Apple has taken didn't occur in a vacuum but occurred during a general bloodbath.




This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 6:25 pm
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