- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted on 1/15/19 at 12:45 pm to CajunTiger92
Posted on 1/15/19 at 12:45 pm to CajunTiger92
Yeah I have started buying my second round (10 more % up from 5%) of volatility today.
I will buy my last round (25% more) in the 2650-2700 area if we make it. 2750 SPX is my stop area so if we hit that, I will admit that I am wrong and take the hit. I'm still holding 25% in equities. Will sell most of them when I buy my last round of volatility.
VIX is now in a basing pattern. Not sure if you saw another post I made the other day but for close to a year now, the second half of each month is more volatile than the first half for some reason. Still not sure why but it is.
I will be the first to admit: this is strong price action as the market is once again back to shrugging off bad news but also shows just how oversold the market was as well. I'm mostly a skeptic when it comes to breakouts and breakdowns at resistance and support respectively, so this could be a false breakout of SPX 2600. We shall see.
When it comes to short to intermediate term trading, I like to think of the market as trying to trick, trap, fool, and frustrate the majority. What a game of psychology and I absolutely love every second of it.
I will buy my last round (25% more) in the 2650-2700 area if we make it. 2750 SPX is my stop area so if we hit that, I will admit that I am wrong and take the hit. I'm still holding 25% in equities. Will sell most of them when I buy my last round of volatility.
VIX is now in a basing pattern. Not sure if you saw another post I made the other day but for close to a year now, the second half of each month is more volatile than the first half for some reason. Still not sure why but it is.
I will be the first to admit: this is strong price action as the market is once again back to shrugging off bad news but also shows just how oversold the market was as well. I'm mostly a skeptic when it comes to breakouts and breakdowns at resistance and support respectively, so this could be a false breakout of SPX 2600. We shall see.
When it comes to short to intermediate term trading, I like to think of the market as trying to trick, trap, fool, and frustrate the majority. What a game of psychology and I absolutely love every second of it.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 1:02 pm
2
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:03 pm to Hussss
quote:So all those weeks in November and December when you kept telling us the almost daily market decline was just the beginning of a market crash what you really meant was the market was oversold??
also shows just how oversold the market was as well.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:09 pm to LSURussian
No, no and NO 
Here is the deal: nothing goes up or down in a straight line first of all. But big declines go like this:
1) First big leg down: most are in the WTF was that moment. Buying the dip is not working, what is going on?!?
2) Counter rally back up (we are HERE): SHEWWW, glad that is over! Back to normal now. Fed has our backs. Worst is behind us, all is well. Headed to new highs. Now you should understand why I picked Spring for a huge drawdown. Gives this phase time to play out.
3) Largest down leg. Nothing but fear, capitulation and throwing the baby out with the bath water. Is the world ending or something? OH. MY. GOD. This CAN'T be happening!!!!
THIS, my friend, is how market psychology works. It is ALL a confidence and psychology game that affects this daily auction of pricing. Fear and greed my friend, fear and greed. Plain and simple.
Here is the deal: nothing goes up or down in a straight line first of all. But big declines go like this:
1) First big leg down: most are in the WTF was that moment. Buying the dip is not working, what is going on?!?
2) Counter rally back up (we are HERE): SHEWWW, glad that is over! Back to normal now. Fed has our backs. Worst is behind us, all is well. Headed to new highs. Now you should understand why I picked Spring for a huge drawdown. Gives this phase time to play out.
3) Largest down leg. Nothing but fear, capitulation and throwing the baby out with the bath water. Is the world ending or something? OH. MY. GOD. This CAN'T be happening!!!!
THIS, my friend, is how market psychology works. It is ALL a confidence and psychology game that affects this daily auction of pricing. Fear and greed my friend, fear and greed. Plain and simple.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:30 pm to Hussss
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:35 pm to Shepherd88
Everyone has their opinions. It is what makes a market. I have been through countless "corrections" and my experience tells me this is far from a correction. I hope I am wrong for the sake of Mom and Pop investors and will trade accordingly either way.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 1:37 pm
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:48 pm to Hussss
quote:That's not what you were preaching in mid-December. You said things like...
First big leg down: most are in the WTF was that moment. Buying the dip is not working, what is going on?!?
2) Counter rally back up (we are HERE):
1) We're just entering the bear market that "overseas markets" have been having for years,
2) Going long in stocks now is like catching a falling knife,
3) Way more supply available than demand for shares,
4) We are in the most powerful wave down of primary wave 1 down,
5) With this type selling, margin calls fire off left and right producing FORCED selling,
6) This market will be in the 1800's next spring,
7) How can you not look all around you and SEE that the veil is finally being lifted?,
8) Buy and hold SH until after 2020,
9) the market has made generational highs this year,
10) We just concluded an ABC counter rally up at 2685 Let's see if this is the start of a big down leg to new lows. My bets say yes,
and my favorite,.....
11) I truly feel sorry for the ones that don't understand what this is all about and what these markets are trying to tell us. Don't say you weren't warned.
But now you're saying the stocks were oversold?
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:53 pm to LSURussian
"Oversold" is only a term in technical trading meaning an RSI (relative strength indicator) under 30. Under 20 is EXTREMELY oversold which is where we were in the Dec. timeline you mentioned. We haven't been there since 2008. Not even 2011 or 2015, as rough as those patches were.
Overbought is over 70 RSI. Never in history have we been as overbought as last Jan. on the weekly charts. RSI over 90! Blowoff phase was then through Sept. Tops are processes, bottoms are events. General timeline of what in my mind is a GENERATIONAL top: Jan. 2018 - Feb. 2019. We are not only at the end of the short term debt cycle that lasts 5-7 years but we are at the end of the long term debt cycle that lasts 75-80 years as well.
I stand firmly behind every single thing you listed.
ETA: I forget how the majority here are in fact not traders as another poster (LSUcam I think) reminded me so I'm trying to give more clarity between the two types of investing.
Overbought is over 70 RSI. Never in history have we been as overbought as last Jan. on the weekly charts. RSI over 90! Blowoff phase was then through Sept. Tops are processes, bottoms are events. General timeline of what in my mind is a GENERATIONAL top: Jan. 2018 - Feb. 2019. We are not only at the end of the short term debt cycle that lasts 5-7 years but we are at the end of the long term debt cycle that lasts 75-80 years as well.
I stand firmly behind every single thing you listed.
ETA: I forget how the majority here are in fact not traders as another poster (LSUcam I think) reminded me so I'm trying to give more clarity between the two types of investing.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 1/15/19 at 2:01 pm to Hussss
quote:Then you are the king of double-speak. Orwell would love you....
I stand firmly behind every single thing you listed.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 2:21 pm to Hussss
quote:
more clarity between the two types of investing.
trading isn't a type of investing. investing has different mechanisms but isn't about reading tea leaves or buying cause in a week people get over excited it's done by looking into financials and buying a piece of a business you want a piece of profits from.
trading is about moves in market that typically arent about financials and business but market perceptions of financials and business.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 4:18 pm to LSURussian
quote:
11) I truly feel sorry for the ones that don't understand what this is all about and what these markets are trying to tell us. Don't say you weren't warned. But now you're saying the stocks were oversold?
What don't you understand? We were in phase 1 of the huge drawdown. I broke down the phases and also explained exactly what "oversold" means.
Not sure about "king of double - speak" as much as it is that you seem to not understand exactly what I try to convey so I am here to answer your questions and help you sort it out.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 1/15/19 at 4:28 pm to LSURussian
Yes, precisely. It appears the market is predicting between 0-1 rate hike of 25 bps and it will come after March.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 5:08 pm to Hussss
quote:Oh, I've already sorted it out. 100%. Thanks, anyway.
I am here to answer your questions and help you sort it out.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 6:01 pm to Hussss
I thought that we might retest the lows once we got to the 2630ish level. I'm not so sure now, the bulls seem back in charge. Time will tell.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 6:31 pm to Hussss
Did you REALLY just explain RSI like you're the only one who knows what that is? 
Posted on 1/15/19 at 7:25 pm to Hussss
quote:
3) Largest down leg. Nothing but fear, capitulation and throwing the baby out with the bath water. Is the world ending or something? OH. MY. GOD. This CAN'T be happening!!!!
Completely agree with this point. This sentiment was rampant in early 2009. The trick is to have cash on the sidelines to invest in healthy companies with positive cash flows.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 7:48 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Yep but people will still buy companies like NFLX with negative cash flow.
For those that don't think we see the SPX 1800's, we lost right at 600 (2941-2349) quick S&P handles off the highs (peak to trough) in only 3 months. I have the big leg down being 1.5X the first leg for 900 SPX points. Getting back up close to 2700-900 points down = 1800 SPX that nobody here thinks possible.
For those that don't think we see the SPX 1800's, we lost right at 600 (2941-2349) quick S&P handles off the highs (peak to trough) in only 3 months. I have the big leg down being 1.5X the first leg for 900 SPX points. Getting back up close to 2700-900 points down = 1800 SPX that nobody here thinks possible.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 7:55 pm
Posted on 1/15/19 at 7:55 pm to Hussss
Larger tech companies in my opinion are going to have a very poor year, in terms of return and relative to the broader markets. It will of course be interesting to see how this ages.
The main reason for this is valuations are pricing in so much bottom line growth (top line for Netflix). What happens if growth stops for a quarter or two?
The main reason for this is valuations are pricing in so much bottom line growth (top line for Netflix). What happens if growth stops for a quarter or two?
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 7:56 pm
Posted on 1/15/19 at 7:59 pm to LSUtoOmaha
It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy so to speak. The drawdown we just had scares businesses as well as consumers and can easily help pull us into recession but I happen to believe that it is more of the entire globe slowing down with demographics and peak oil (peaked just before 2008 GFC) being big factors due to the constraints that both put on the credit cycle.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:44 pm to Hussss
The drop was a lot deeper than I thought would happen. As I've posted before, I think something spooked the market that was in addition to the usual suspects (Fed, trade, etc). Things seemed to have settled down based on the positive reaction the market is having despite negative news.
That said, it'll take a bit to get through the resistance that is just above 2600. Odds favor ending the year higher not lower though.
That said, it'll take a bit to get through the resistance that is just above 2600. Odds favor ending the year higher not lower though.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:47 pm to CajunTiger92
quote:
Odds favor ending the year higher
How so?
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 8:48 pm
Page 29 of 45
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News