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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
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re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
quote:

VIX is right here
Wasn't it less than a week ago you predicted the VIX was going to be between "20-25 throughout this year" and when I replied to you that I didn't agree with that and I said I thought it would be lower than that you replied sarcastically to my post?

And yet here today it dropped to 18.39?

If you think I'm wrong about your prediction last week I'll be happy to search for your posts and my reply and post a link to them.


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Once again, you cherry pick and leave out things. I said vix will AVERAGE 20-25 dumbass.

We are 11 days into the year. You need to find another crush
This post was edited on 1/11 at 3:18 pm


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
quote:

AVERAGE 20-25 dumbass
Then what does the "throughout the year" mean?

And the way you worded it was "There is no doubt...."

All I replied was "I have doubts about that."

The 18.39 for the VIX today confirms my doubts....
quote:

We are 11 days into the year. You need to find another crush
Nah, I enjoy exposing charlatans* like you.
quote:

*char·la·tan
/'SHärl?d?n/ noun
1. a person falsely claiming to have a special knowledge or skill; a fraud:

ETA: And while I'm exposing you as a charlatan, you said above that Apple and Amazon are holding the S&P 500 Index down yet BOTH of those stocks are UP this week MORE than the S&P 500 is up.

AAPL is up 2.65%, AMZN is up 3.97% and the S&P 500 Index is up 2.50% this week.


They are definitely not what's keeping it below 2600.

You continue to be wrong.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 3:39 pm


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
You are correct, to get an average throughout the year you stop after 11 days into the year to get said average


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
You probably didn't see my edit above while you were trying to save face with your last post so I'll repost it here.

And while I'm exposing you as a charlatan, you said above that Apple and Amazon are holding the S&P 500 Index down below 2600 yet BOTH of those stocks are UP this week MORE than the S&P 500 is up.

AAPL is up 2.65%, AMZN is up 3.97% and the S&P 500 Index is up 2.50% this week.

They are definitely not what's keeping it below 2600.

You continue to be wrong. It's a pattern for you.


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
1019 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
I don't want to get in the middle of this but just trying to be objective here: the entire market narrative has changed over the past few weeks because of the frickery with the Fed and the PPT. So maybe you should keep that in mind


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
What specifically has changed that I need to keep in mind?

And by "changed" I'm referring to what wasn't obviously likely to change "over the past few weeks."

I guess what I'm trying to say is there's been absolutely nothing that's happened over the past few weeks that has changed my opinion about my investments or my prospective investments.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 4:14 pm


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
1019 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Isn't that because you aren't a trader like he is?

I would say the full 180 reversal on interest rate hikes and balance sheet normalization is a pretty big deal. I'm pretty sure futures are pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut in 2019 than any increases. We've also had several key components of the DOW and S&P lower their earnings guidance.

quote:

And by "changed" I'm referring to what wasn't obviously likely to change "over the past few weeks."



This is subjective, and while I agree with you that most of this stuff was obvious, it was pretty clear that the markets didn't think so.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
quote:

I would say the full 180 reversal on interest rate hikes and balance sheet normalization is a pretty big deal.


I must have missed that. What I read was the Fed now expects to have 3 interest rate hikes this year instead of a previously expected 4 hikes. Is that not correct?

If so, that's not exactly a 180 reversal. More like a 25% reversal. ETA: I just googled and my above statement is correct according to MarketWatch as of the date of the Fed's increase last month. If that's changed since then, I'd like to read about it.

quote:

I'm pretty sure futures are pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut in 2019 than any increases.
Not that I see. The futures are projecting a cut in the first half of next year, 2020, not this year, according to Bloomberg.

quote:

while I agree with you that most of this stuff was obvious, it was pretty clear that the markets didn't think so.
I always maintain the "markets" always know more than I do. If something was obvious to me, it's REALLY obvious to the "markets." And I still don't see any Earth-shattering changes in the expectations over the last month or so.


Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2457 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
quote:

wutangfinancial


Are you the same wutangfinancial on the Instagram??


LSUcam7
SRB FL
Member since Sep 2016
1665 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Really hoping Wutang Financial is a legitimate business. Protect ya neck...

...lines on your charts.


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50
Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Russian, a few things here:

1) Of course BOTH AAPL and AMZN (2 of the biggest weightings in the SPX) kept the S&P 500 cash index from going up through 2600 TODAY. It might have to do with the QQQs being at a huge resistance area, once again TODAY not this week, with 2 different moving averages converging, making even more resistance. Don’t go assuming that I say they won’t get through there (hell they may gap em’ up on Monday) I was only stating that right there close to the closing bell they had YET to do so as AAPL and AMZN were weak all day. That’s all I was pointing out.

2) This market won't make it close to old highs without tech leadership and with energy and financials not being strong, NO CHANCE.

3) Chant charlatan all you want. I’m not SELLING anything. You really need to lighten up a bit and have some fun. It is good for the soul. Life is short man. I don’t need to waste my time on here but sometimes I just need a few laughs while sipping some of my favorite whiskey.

Cheers!

This post was edited on 1/11 at 10:39 pm


b-rab2
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2005
11632 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
lol Different guy.. Wu is a good guy.. fan of him.


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10
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
quote:

Of course BOTH AAPL and AMZN (2 of the biggest weightings in the SPX) kept the S&P 500 cash index from going up through 2600 TODAY. TODAY not this week,
quote:

They have been trying to get em' up through SPX 2600 most of the week. AMZN and AAPL are holding SPX back.


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
I just explained what I was talking about. Comprende?

quote:

They have been trying to get em' up through SPX 2600 most of the week. AMZN and AAPL are holding SPX back, TODAY
FIFY

NOW, Take your ball and go home
This post was edited on 1/11 at 10:47 pm


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Your “explanation” contradicts your original post which referred specifically to “most of this week” and not “today.” Nice try but no sale.


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
If AMZN OR AAPL would have been just a TAD stronger, didn't even need to be green just a bit stronger, would the S&P have broken up through 2600? Serious question. Yes or no?
This post was edited on 1/11 at 10:52 pm


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
The same could be said for many of the other 503 stocks in the S&P 500 Index, especially the ones who lagged the index’s average for this week, unlike AMZN & AAPL which actually pulled the index higher this week, not held it down.

Your attempt to change your original post to save face that you were wrong about AMZN & AAPL is humorous. Just be a man about it, admit you were wrong and move on....


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Uh, other stocks don't have the weightings of AMZN and AAPL. Indexes are weighted by market cap so small ticks in these two do MUCH MORE to S&P 500 than a FCX, etc.

Your continuous assumptions and cherry picking are humorous. Like I said, lighten up and enjoy life. It's Friday. TGIF! Grab your favorite beverage and fire up a cigar or something. Let's make some money and have some fun too.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 11:14 pm


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
112285 posts
 Online 

re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
quote:

Indexes are weighted by market cap
Not all of them. The Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index is price weighted not market cap weighted. The S&P 500 Index is weighted by free float market cap not just market cap. The NASDAQ is the main U.S. index that’s weighted by straight market cap.

Anyway, you’ve already admitted your original post was wrong based on your attempt to edit it tonight.

The real question is why did you single out AMZN & AAPL? I’ve noticed you’ve disparaged both of those stocks previously. Why?


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