re: Talking heads saying Fed is about to pivot

Ibonds stacked

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A lot of rumblings that the fed is about to turn dove and only do another 2 rate hikes.

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This could be a head fake to keep the gullible small investor in the market while Jaimie Dimon heads for cover.

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2 rate hikes

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Would you still say it was dovish if that were two 75 basis point hikes?

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It's a pick your poison scenario isn't it? If they don't raise the rates inflation will continue to kill consumers, if they do raise the rates then you push towards a recession.

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I think that may be understating it a little. Not raising rates means continuing to inject liquidity into a market already undergoing high inflation. What does that lead to?



The problem is the Fed waited too long to raise rates, did them too timidly and then dropped them too far, too fast. They've kicked the can down the road only to find that road ends at a cliff. One more kick...

So the options are don't raise rates and run the very real risk of the currency collapsing or raise rates and pray to God we get through this with only stagflation.

Dems didnt push multiple huge spending bills and wanted more? Dems didnt joyfully cut down the OG industry driving the prices we are seeing which directly impacts everything in modern society?
It is plain as die, politicians can quickly frick up a good thing.

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Powell is a Republican and was nominated to the Fed chair by Trump. The Dems in the Senate and House have no real control over monetary policy/rates.

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they’d be slamming rates up and throwing us into inflation.

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Huh?

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The fact of the matter is the Fed, unlike most institutions, does a pretty good job of staying independent with monetary policy. They’re not infallible by any stretch, but they don’t seem to care who is in office, at a minimum.

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I'd agree with this. I would say the current Fed is more incompetent than them being political. They couldn't make the hard decisions early on when things appeared good to prevent us from getting to this point. You can't tell me these allegedly brilliant people couldn't see what was happening in the country/world and not expect inflation to get out of hand. They probably knew it would get bad but hoped some other event occurred to bring it down so they didn't have to be the "bad guys" with rate increases/shedding the balance sheet.

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Words and facts don’t matter the moment discussions on this board get political.

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Very true. That’s why I usually avoid those types of discussions here and other places.

I allowed myself to wade into a discussion about unemployment reports several years ago on another board I was on. Several people claimed that the BLS was cooking the reports to favor one political party over another. The late (once) great Jack Welsh also bought into this conspiracy theory. With one simple question (without being caught or discovered… how???), I apparently triggered quite a few people there too. If something tawdry is going on, I’d like to know about it as much as the next feller.

My question to the fellow above had nothing to do with what Congress was or wasn’t doing, or even what they might do (since we all know that all political animals are more focused on power retention than anything else). But in a thread about the Fed and monetary policy, what did his post have to do with the price of tea in Taiwan?