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re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted on 8/18/26 at 3:39 am to Guntoter1
Posted on 8/18/26 at 3:39 am to Guntoter1
quote:
So we’ve had two dilutions after she said we might only need one. (According to my poor memory)
I’m pissed again.
Someone explain this to me.
We don't know the exact reason, but an extremely bullish reason would be that they have to accelerate their expansion due to new demand.
Kjirstin said last month that they did not have plans to dilute. She laid out a very conservative buildout plan and said they had contingency plans to expand production if they got large contracts.
This could be the first step in one of those contingency plans.
Or not. We'll see.
1
Posted on 8/18/26 at 5:32 am to PeteRose
quote:
Everytime I come across this daily prediction, it ends up being a red day. Hope I’m wrong today.
Well, you were more right than me. It wasn’t a great day but at least we weren’t red.
Let’s see how this dilution affects the stock today. I don’t really have more dry power that I planned on spending, but I could find some if it hits $4.
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 5:34 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:08 am to Jax-Tiger
I was really hoping for a press release today - this is counter to what KB said and way beyond what's needed for the initial buildup - which as Jax said could be incredibly bullish if it's needed to accelerate a larger buildout for protection for contracts.
But until we get that rationale....
But until we get that rationale....
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:17 am to igoringa
Aren’t they restricted from forward looking statements for a period when they do an offering like this?
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:48 am to igoringa
This is a small fund raiser, and it could be that investors told them that they will need more cash on hand to show that they have the resources to scale up and give customers the confidence that they will be able to do so.
If so, maybe that don't have a specific customer they need the money for. Yet.
If so, maybe that don't have a specific customer they need the money for. Yet.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:04 am to Jax-Tiger
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:05 am to Jax-Tiger
Note: This is along article that gives a lot of good insightful information.
Seeking Alpha: Hydrograph A Strong Buy!
HydroGraph: The Spearhead Of The Graphene Revolution
SA
Summary
HydroGraph is upgraded to Strong Buy as it breaks ground on its large-scale TX production facility and executes on its go-to-market strategy with a strong cash runway.
HGRAF’s production ramp is underway with 30 tpa capacity by Q3 2026, 90 tpa by Q2 2027, and further expansion to 390 and 780+ tpa secured.
The pipeline of 80+ customers should lead to initial contracts before year-end, at once the main execution gate and stock catalyst for HGRAF.
Pre-revenue valuation of $1.8 billion is steep, but management claims of gross margins over 80% promise to deliver exceptional operating leverage and self-funding of the capex buildup.
Long-term, HGRAF could be an incredibly disruptive company, with immense addressable markets for graphene-enhanced materials and a leading, differentiated position in the defense space.
Today, I will be making the case for why HydroGraph (HGRAF) is a transformative company that now has all the cards it needs to deliver, at scale, on the promises of graphene, the most disruptive material ever discovered by mankind. I have been covering this company since last November, and this will be my third article about it. While I encourage you to read my initial coverage and March follow-up, I will now give you the summarized elevator pitch for why you should invest today and why I am upgrading HydroGraph from a Buy to a Strong Buy.
Seeking Alpha: Hydrograph A Strong Buy!
HydroGraph: The Spearhead Of The Graphene Revolution
SA
Summary
HydroGraph is upgraded to Strong Buy as it breaks ground on its large-scale TX production facility and executes on its go-to-market strategy with a strong cash runway.
HGRAF’s production ramp is underway with 30 tpa capacity by Q3 2026, 90 tpa by Q2 2027, and further expansion to 390 and 780+ tpa secured.
The pipeline of 80+ customers should lead to initial contracts before year-end, at once the main execution gate and stock catalyst for HGRAF.
Pre-revenue valuation of $1.8 billion is steep, but management claims of gross margins over 80% promise to deliver exceptional operating leverage and self-funding of the capex buildup.
Long-term, HGRAF could be an incredibly disruptive company, with immense addressable markets for graphene-enhanced materials and a leading, differentiated position in the defense space.
Today, I will be making the case for why HydroGraph (HGRAF) is a transformative company that now has all the cards it needs to deliver, at scale, on the promises of graphene, the most disruptive material ever discovered by mankind. I have been covering this company since last November, and this will be my third article about it. While I encourage you to read my initial coverage and March follow-up, I will now give you the summarized elevator pitch for why you should invest today and why I am upgrading HydroGraph from a Buy to a Strong Buy.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:09 am to Swazla
He even got into some subtle points, like Kjirstin stating that they were pivoting away from small contracts to focus on the large customers. They are not worried about demand, so much as they are worried about bottlenecks and not being able to take care of the large customers.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:29 am to NaturalBeam
Like I mentioned I think Cannacord sought them out and made an offer to HG that couldn’t be turned down.
In HG mind it’s almost free money
In HG mind it’s almost free money
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:43 am to masoncj
Analyst's post-publish comment on the HGRAF article on SA:
Based on everything we know and BTW that article is an excellent, informative read: I am going with 'bullish'
quote:
The bullish read: this is acceleration money. They want to ramp faster and harder than they did just a few months ago, and the only reason for that is if they see real demand traction. The available docs on SEDAR+ at the moment say the "net proceeds of the Offering are expected to be used for business development activities, ***expansion of American facilities***, working capital and general corporate purposes" so this is my initial read currently, but I'd like to hear more from management about it.
The bearish read : they are NOT seeing demand traction and are raising now because they expect the road ahead might be bumpy.
Based on everything we know and BTW that article is an excellent, informative read: I am going with 'bullish'
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:47 am to Naked Bootleg
quote:
I am going with 'bullish'
Not to be confused with bullshi.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:02 am to Naked Bootleg
This is what Chat GPT has to say about the latest dilution.
“My interpretation has changed somewhat
Before this amendment, I said:
The financing was evidence that professional investors found HydroGraph’s growth story credible.
After this amendment, I’d strengthen that to:
There appears to be enough investor demand at C$6.80 that Canaccord and HydroGraph decided to increase the transaction by 22.4%, while maintaining the same offering price.
That’s genuinely bullish information.
It still doesn’t prove a military contract is coming.
It doesn’t prove 700 tons will be sold.
It doesn’t prove HGRAF will reach $10, $20, or $50.
But it does materially strengthen the evidence that sophisticated investors are willing to commit substantial capital to HydroGraph at approximately its current valuation.
And I think the most important number for our analysis just became:
C$61.2M ? potentially C$70.38M
That’s approximately US$44M ? potentially US$51M.
And now I think we should revisit the question you asked earlier:
If the original ~$36M financing was potentially enough to fund the move toward 700 tons, what does ~$44–51M of financing imply about HydroGraph’s intended production capacity?
Because that is a very interesting question.”
“My interpretation has changed somewhat
Before this amendment, I said:
The financing was evidence that professional investors found HydroGraph’s growth story credible.
After this amendment, I’d strengthen that to:
There appears to be enough investor demand at C$6.80 that Canaccord and HydroGraph decided to increase the transaction by 22.4%, while maintaining the same offering price.
That’s genuinely bullish information.
It still doesn’t prove a military contract is coming.
It doesn’t prove 700 tons will be sold.
It doesn’t prove HGRAF will reach $10, $20, or $50.
But it does materially strengthen the evidence that sophisticated investors are willing to commit substantial capital to HydroGraph at approximately its current valuation.
And I think the most important number for our analysis just became:
C$61.2M ? potentially C$70.38M
That’s approximately US$44M ? potentially US$51M.
And now I think we should revisit the question you asked earlier:
If the original ~$36M financing was potentially enough to fund the move toward 700 tons, what does ~$44–51M of financing imply about HydroGraph’s intended production capacity?
Because that is a very interesting question.”
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:50 am to Guntoter1
IF this heads back down below four, I’m going to wait for this to hit 8 one day, and get out of here.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:49 am to dstone12
quote:
IF this heads back down below four, I’m going to wait for this to hit 8 one day, and get out of here.
Well the people that just invested in HG are pretty damn confident this will be above $5.88 US over the next 5 years.
So confident that after they made the deal more investors said they wanted in.
Also HG has no debt and plenty cash.
We will see an avalanche of good news before December IMO.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:50 am to dstone12
quote:
IF this heads back down below four, I’m going to wait for this to hit 8 one day, and get out of here.
Are you losing faith in the long term prospects?
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:59 am to Jax-Tiger
What happened to the guy who suggested First Graphene as another 3rd world option? Are we still waiting on viability of graphene on that one too?
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:01 am to Neauxla
quote:
What happened to the guy who suggested First Graphene as another 3rd world option? Are we still waiting on viability of graphene on that one too?
lol.
Thst was probably me.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:08 am to dstone12
quote:Was that you or Mekasomething?
Thst was probably me.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:10 am to Neauxla
I bet meka got a few of us onto First Graphene.
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