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re: So the market is down 20% from it's ALL-TIME high, but read this Disney related
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:04 am to Zilla
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:04 am to Zilla
point was, we have companies like Disney where we are having discussions about whether they will make it or not, and the market is just 20% off an all time high...That doesn't add up.
2
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:15 am to Zilla
Yea it’s 20% off an all time high. That’s not a big deal. The big deal is they just furloughed 43k employees because parks are closed.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:31 am to Zilla
Current Negatives:
- All theme parks are closed
- All cruise lines are closed
- All movie theaters are closed in the USA
- People are cutting cable faster than ever
- Disney+ was just getting ramped, expected to lose money into 2022 as they scaled
- Due to Disney+ they aren't getting any revenue to streaming rights, since they pulled the plug to other providers
Positives:
- Disney+ growing faster than expected, so maybe not losing as much money on it
The only revenue stream for Disney right now is cable/satellite operators paying for broadcast rights to their channels. But that is on a per subscriber basis, so it is shrinking.
Estimates out there is that they are losing 30M a day, seems low IMO
From a seeking alpha article, going to be ugly
- All theme parks are closed
- All cruise lines are closed
- All movie theaters are closed in the USA
- People are cutting cable faster than ever
- Disney+ was just getting ramped, expected to lose money into 2022 as they scaled
- Due to Disney+ they aren't getting any revenue to streaming rights, since they pulled the plug to other providers
Positives:
- Disney+ growing faster than expected, so maybe not losing as much money on it
The only revenue stream for Disney right now is cable/satellite operators paying for broadcast rights to their channels. But that is on a per subscriber basis, so it is shrinking.
Estimates out there is that they are losing 30M a day, seems low IMO
From a seeking alpha article, going to be ugly
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 9:37 am
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:36 am to rocket31
I don’t think Disney and Netflix is and either or option. I have both. Many have both.
They offer different content.
They offer different content.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:58 am to gobuxgo5
quote:
If this means the taxpayers should have to support bailing them out, you are crazy.
No. I hate bailouts for mismanagement.
By too big to fail, I mean that their product demands are too strong.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:10 am to JayDeerTay84
im bearish on both but in particular the Netflix model which can be easily replicated
plus Hollywood is shut down for the foreseeable future
plus Hollywood is shut down for the foreseeable future
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:13 am to rocket31
quote:Netflix has shown that it can adapt. They saw the DVD thing go away and they adjusted.
im bearish on both but in particular the Netflix model which can be easily replicated
People started replicating, in particular people pulling their content so they can put it on their own platforms(not just Disney), and Netflix has responded with Original content.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:16 am to castorinho
right. original content is saving them but like i said, they are not filimng right now
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 10:16 am
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:55 am to Zilla
quote:
point was, we have companies like Disney where we are having discussions about whether they will make it or not, and the market is just 20% off an all time high...That doesn't add up.
Because there is a general assumption, or (some say misguided) optimism, that we can hit a restart button on the economy and it will all be back to normal. That will be the case for some industries, but others will be struggling, at least in the short-term, and who knows how that will impact the overall market or how much the stimulus will neutralize the effects.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 11:02 am
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:06 pm to Dr.Funke
quote:
It will be interesting to see how movie theaters recover after all this,
Yes it will be interesting to see when the movie theaters re- open. Not just due to governmental restrictions, but AMC has
1) stop paying rent on April 1st
2) laid off over 25K employees
3) hired a bankruptcy law firm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:28 pm to Zilla
Do you even trillions in stimulus, bro?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:30 pm to wutangfinancial
Anyone that thinks Disney is going away is crazy.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:02 pm to SECdragonmaster
quote:got it. That is totally different. I don't think anyone believes that Disney won't come out of this.
By too big to fail, I mean that their product demands are too strong.
My comments, and i think some others, were about the "too big to fail". For most people, that is a callback to the bailouts of banks and is used as a shortcut for "their failure would be disastrous to the greater economic system, and that they therefore must be supported by government when they face potential failure". At least, that is how Wiki defines it.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:15 pm to tigersfan1989
quote:
Yea it’s 20% off an all-time high. That’s not a big deal. The big deal is they just furloughed 43k employees because parks are closed.
That's my point, they are legit in trouble as are many other companies but the stock price isn't reflecting this reality...
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