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Started By
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re: Retirement goal and how to get there: looking for advice / opinions
Posted on 7/10/25 at 7:40 am to CenlaLowell
Posted on 7/10/25 at 7:40 am to CenlaLowell
Agreed. I plan and won’t retire until I’m debt free.
1
Posted on 7/10/25 at 8:12 am to tigerbacon
This board is so funny sometimes. There is good advice sprinkled with absurd numbers that I guess are done to try to inflate one's self worth to strangers. 
Posted on 7/10/25 at 8:59 am to Naked Bootleg
I am estimating how much we'd pay for healthcare.
How much should I expect to pay for me & wife's health/vision/dental?
eta: question to all; not tigerbacon
________
I "retired" at 55, and have been fortunate as an active investor. Our health insurance premiums are high due to our income. Wife and I have been paying $2k per month for health insurance bought thru marketplace. Our policies have $7k deductible each. We are healthy, but occasional things come up. No expensive prescriptions for either of us. Wife had major eye surgery that came out of nowhere. I would estimate we have been spending $26-30k per year for health. Wife hit Medicare age last year and costs are down a bit now. I am still a couple of years away.
Retiring before you qualify for Medicare, and being fortunate with investment income has a fairly high cost of health insurance. I would bet this gets worse in the future.
How much should I expect to pay for me & wife's health/vision/dental?
eta: question to all; not tigerbacon
________
I "retired" at 55, and have been fortunate as an active investor. Our health insurance premiums are high due to our income. Wife and I have been paying $2k per month for health insurance bought thru marketplace. Our policies have $7k deductible each. We are healthy, but occasional things come up. No expensive prescriptions for either of us. Wife had major eye surgery that came out of nowhere. I would estimate we have been spending $26-30k per year for health. Wife hit Medicare age last year and costs are down a bit now. I am still a couple of years away.
Retiring before you qualify for Medicare, and being fortunate with investment income has a fairly high cost of health insurance. I would bet this gets worse in the future.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 10:14 am to KWL85
quote:
I "retired" at 55, and have been fortunate as an active investor. Our health insurance premiums are high due to our income. Wife and I have been paying $2k per month for health insurance bought thru marketplace. Our policies have $7k deductible each.
I would suggest these are not high, but rather very much in the normal range. Unfortunately..
Posted on 7/10/25 at 10:31 am to baldona
That's for an early retirement. His costs should go down significantly at 65.
My wife and I at 65 will pay about $7200 combined for Medicare plus the supplement. Approximately $311 a month each. She'll keep her little bookkeeping business going for a few years so her premium becomes a business writeoff.
My wife and I at 65 will pay about $7200 combined for Medicare plus the supplement. Approximately $311 a month each. She'll keep her little bookkeeping business going for a few years so her premium becomes a business writeoff.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 10:55 am to RolltidePA
quote:You don't call these risky investments? Assuming you must be young and have not gone through downturns. The closer you get to retirement, the less you are able to weather the downturns (thus the tendency to become more risk averse).
QQQ 10 year annualized return is 18.72%
VGT 10 year annualized return is 21.24%
FTEC 10 year annualized return is 21.10%
There are well performing ETFs out there that can hit that number. I wouldn't call any of them extreme risk. There is always that "past performance doesn't guarantee future returns" thing though.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 11:20 am to NOSHAU
quote:
You don't call these risky investments? Assuming you must be young and have not gone through downturns. The closer you get to retirement, the less you are able to weather the downturns (thus the tendency to become more risk averse).
Are they without risk? absolutely not. If the stated goal is growth, generally speaking (in my opinion), broad market ETFs don't carry more or much more risk compared to other market based, growth-oriented investments. Naturally, that's a personal assessment that someone has to make regarding their personal tolerance to risk. Everybody is in a different scenario.
If the stated goal was income or protecting assets, then that's a different circumstance and set of goals which would require a different approach.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 1:07 pm to RolltidePA
quote:Right.
If the stated goal was income or protecting assets
The stated goal was late stage building of a retirement portfolio. It's a very different dynamic.
i.e., If the need is $3M, the starting point is $950K, and the timeframe is 7yrs, then ROI needs to be 16%+ per year. You contend that's doable. It is.
However, one off-year screws the pooch.
• 16% x 7yrs = $2.9M+.
• 16% x 6yrs with 0% year 7 = $2.4M+ ... a 1/2 million shortfall.
• A 10% pullback in the final yr, after 6 great years, and he's $800K shy of the goal.
For a perspective, AI calculates the odds of achieving at least 16% annually over the next seven years as less than 10%.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 1:26 pm to RolltidePA
Those are all tech sector funds not "broad market ETFs."
So, yes concentration in a single sector especially after several yrs.of out performing broader.market has significantly higher degree of risk.
So, yes concentration in a single sector especially after several yrs.of out performing broader.market has significantly higher degree of risk.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 1:30 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
i.e., If the need is $3M, the starting point is $950K, and the timeframe is 7yrs, then ROI needs to be 16%+ per year. You contend that's doable. It is.
Doable, sure. I believe that in my my first post I mentioned it would take luck.
quote:
However, one off-year screws the pooch.
Couldn't agree more; especially with most of the projections from Vanguard, Blackrock and others have the US market growth at around 6% in best scenarios and 2.4% for the worst over the next decade. If hitting that $3 million is a necessity, it's going to be a tough line to walk.
This post was edited on 7/10/25 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 7/10/25 at 3:16 pm to RolltidePA
quote:
If hitting that $3 million is a necessity, it's going to be a tough line to walk.
It's not a necessity, just a "would be nice if" scenario. I can work more years.. I'd just rather not if I could grow it to a reasonable amount in the next 7 years.
There are other factors. Wife and I will gain pretty decent inheritances within the next 5-6 years. Can't say exactly how much, but it will be at least a $600k boost towards retirement which will go in a Roth.
I really appreciate the input and ideas, guys. I wasn't necessarily asking for "retirement life" advice, but it was very well received. Thank you.
This post was edited on 7/10/25 at 3:17 pm
Posted on 7/10/25 at 3:18 pm to Naked Bootleg
We are here to help. One of the few boards on this site that does so.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 4:30 pm to Naked Bootleg
quote:
$600k boost towards retirement which will go in a Roth
How do you plan you're going to contribute that 600k to Roths?
Posted on 7/10/25 at 4:50 pm to RolltidePA
quote:Then you've received some good advice here.
Doable, sure. I believe that in my my first post I mentioned it would take luck.
If you're willing to place a bet (your comfortable retirement) on the flip of a coin, rather than settling for a less comfortable guarantee, and you understand the ramifications of your choice, then I wish you the absolute best of luck!
I sincerely hope these next 7yrs are absolutely fantastic for you.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 7:34 pm to TorchtheFlyingTiger
*be. Inherited.
Posted on 7/10/25 at 8:05 pm to Naked Bootleg
quote:
What kind of expenses are you expecting monthly when you retire in 7 years?
Somewhere in the $6800 - $7200 range
Good luck!
Posted on 7/12/25 at 3:43 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Good luck!
I mean, $2700 from SS and 4.7% of what I have in 401k today = $6700 per month, and I have 6 to 7 years to go. What's funny? I don't plan on living 120 years old
Posted on 7/13/25 at 2:26 pm to Naked Bootleg
Something to consider regarding risk. You don't have to place all your money in a low risk category during retirement. One might keep money in bonds in retirement years for safety. But that doesn't mean all or even most of your money needs to be in bonds (or another low risk vehicle). I am using a 3-tier approach. Short-term, medium-term, and long-term. You can tweak the amounts in each tier as you see fit, but just because one is in their retirement years should not translate into keeping your money in risk averse holdings. As long as you keep a reasonable amount in your short and medium tiers, then you should never have to liquidate money in your long-term tier during a down cycle. My assets have grown in retirement because my long-term holdings have had a nice run. Personally, I am comfortable with my short and medium term money being what I might need in the next 18 months or so.
Posted on 7/13/25 at 2:46 pm to SportsGuyNOLA
quote:
Then you don’t have $950k in savings
?
Even accepting your implied premise that anything at risk doesn’t count as “savings,” I have a lot of long-term CDs in my tax-deferred retirement accounts. Is that “savings”?
This post was edited on 7/13/25 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 7/13/25 at 2:59 pm to Naked Bootleg
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/13/25 at 3:01 pm
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