re: Real estate is correcting

Stonks go up. People with stonks have money. People without stonks are broke.

Meanwhile, in the commercial space, institutional quality assets are still at an all-time high.

I am specifically referring to multifamily assets. Office is screwed.

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Why the downvotes?

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Probably because of the "subtle brag" that you're building a $1.5M custom home. Might come across as pretentious.

To your original point, what do you mean the difference between the "haves and the have nots"?

Now, I live in South Florida, and we have a constant migration down here that I have described as a couple (a teacher and a cop) move down here after selling the modest home in which they raised their family in NYC for $1M. They come down here and buy a golf course home for half that. They collect SS and each of them has a pension, so their total income is $150K and they have the $500K profit from their home in a brokerage account. Some of these folks put the entire $1M proceeds from their home sale in the market and borrowed money for the home at 3.25% when rates were low.

I don't know if these are haves or have nots, but these folks are living pretty damn comfortably, playing golf and fishing down here.

Our housing market is stagnant, right now, and part of it is because houses went up so much during Covid. 5-6 years ago, that $500K house on the golf course was $275K. Part of it is that Canadian snowbirds have stopped coming down here, and are looking to sell. Part of it is that Vero Beach isn't really on folks radar as a destination to move to - people are looking for Jupiter/West Palm/Ft Lauderdale/Miami.

I'm biding my time before jumping on a house and letting my money grow in the market, for now.

Thanks for your reply. Not trying to brag. To be clear, I invest in spec houses and rentals. This was my 20 year plan to get out of my stressful day job. I executed the plan and "retired" from my primary career in IT.

I am intentionally focusing on high priced houses for the next year as a strategy. Because the market is telling me to. I did a couple of $1M houses that sold this year. They had far more showings and were easier to sell than lower priced houses this year. My observation is that the higher end customer is not concerned about making their next home purchase, but lower income ranges have become cautious. I research housing data regularly, and my strategy is based on broader data than just my projects. This is where my haves vs have nots comment came from. My lower priced houses are sitting on the market longer than any time since 2007/2008.

In a strong market cycle, I don't take on custom homes. They take more of my time and take longer to get to a payday. I haven't done a custom in years, but am starting one now over concerns about my typical buyer. I am also doing 1 or 2 very expensive spec houses for same reason.