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re: Rate cut time!!!

Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:49 pm to
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28004 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

1) Remove all tariffs.
2) Veto all budget bills which do not reduce spending from prior years.




It just cant be that easy.
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
19590 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:50 pm to
Interest rates need to go up.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
31418 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

Important to note that the bbb did cut spending.

The entirety of its price tag was because the CBO was including the TCJA extension as spending/cost.

Technically the outcome is the same, but I have philosophical qualms with categorizing extension of existing tax rates as spending

For the sake of your philosophical mores, let's ignore everything other than true, pure spending. What was the annual total rate of "spend" before Trump's spending bill, and what was it after?
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
19590 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:51 pm to
Well duh. I'm aa but I used to warn some folks this day would come. Prince George County is about to turn into Detroit overnight.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28004 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

Interest rates need to go up.


Yeah, and Powell wanted to do that.
This post was edited on 9/5/25 at 3:57 pm
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
24651 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

You asked "how would you..." and I answered your question.


Ah, we are taking the lazy smartass approach to problem solving.

You might as well have gone with finding a pot of gold at the end of rainbow, it carries the same level success.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133447 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

Ah, we are taking the lazy smartass approach to problem solving.

No more than you taking the lazy, smartass approach to asking questions.
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
19590 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 7:32 pm to
Could've fooled me.
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
35448 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

companies are starting to run out of pre tariff inventory, and the price increases haven't truly been digested yet.


That’s what worries me. I don’t think we’ve gotten to the pain yet.
Posted by IMSA_Fan
Member since Jul 2024
560 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:12 pm to
Moodys has inflation hitting like 3.5% by YE. I could very much see that
Posted by ChiGator
Member since Nov 2020
3914 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:24 pm to
This is spot on and a great real life example of what’s happening. Here is the other thing people don’t understand: Many of the largest CPG companies across the country operate on year long pricing calendars with the largest retailers.

For example, Pepsi/Coke sells in a year long pricing slotting fee structure to Walmart for their spring reset season and fiscal year calendar. This is baked in. Massive tariff fees on aluminum, in a lot of cases, are not priced into these pricing agreements. But you can bet that this fall or spring, Coke will go through a price increase across the board. Which then applies to the year long promotional calendar that gets sold in.

The largest retailers, Walmart/Target etc can tell the supplier no…to a certain extent…but many retailers don’t have that same pricing power.

TLDR: inflation, driven by tariffs, is delayed. But it is coming.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
73015 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:54 pm to
I don’t see it hitting 3.5%.

I could see 3.0% for 2 months or so.

What Powell and some other fed presidents have been mentioning lately though is the expectation that tariff driven inflation happens in a relatively short burst rather than the 2 year inflation we saw during 2022 and 2023.

The reason is that there is a definable, quantifiable exogenous factor this time (tariffs) rather than a nebulous, cloudy, obscure exogenous factor in 2022 (money supply too high post Covid).


Goldman Sachs is projecting inflation to peak at 3.1% in December and to fall to 2% next year. The reason they don’t see inflation staying at 3% next year is because companies will have already raised their necessary prices to cover the tariff costs.


Demand side inflation (2021,2022,2023) is so much trickier to tame because it’s not quantifiable. There was no way to “predict” 2022 inflation because there is no way to predict juiced consumer demand via stimulus.

Supply side inflation (tariff) is easier to project because you can make decent predictions at how high prices have to increase to cover the new costs.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57722 posts
Posted on 9/5/25 at 10:04 pm to
quote:

The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings. It’s wrong to take out your frustration on workers and employees.

There are other ways of protesting tariffs. You can picket the WH, attend town halls, donate to causes, etc.

But telling your workers to take a hike? It’s immoral.


Someone had a full bowl of Marxist propaganda today. Put down the spoon and back away from the bowl, comrade.

Here's some Supply & Demand 101 to clear things up a bit:

-If costs of inputs go up, other costs have to go down or price has to go up (or some of both). Otherwise, you run at a loss until you go bankrupt.

-For just about every business, labor is the single most expensive category of costs (runs ~22%-30% of gross profits, depending on industry).

-Jobs aren't created for workers to have something to do, jobs are created because there is work which needs to be done. If that work dries up, or is expected to dry up, so too do the jobs.

-Businesses don't start cutting filled positions until the work or resources starts drying up. As long as orders are coming in and they can fill them and bring in enough revenue to keep the positions, they do. What can happen, which can cause confusion, is when unfilled positions are cut and claimed as cuts (and that happens).

-No one is owed a job. Jobs aren't created to give someone a paycheck, they are created because a new position is needed to get a certain amount of work done. Some people losing their jobs because the business has slowed too much to afford them is insanely more preferable than everyone losing their jobs because the company had to shut down due to bankruptcy because the owner/CEO was too much of a pussy to cut positions.

This is all to say, no one is firing people to protest tariffs. No one. Not a single fricking place. None. Along with that, it's the height of socialist propaganda idiocy to even make that statement as it shows a complete lack of understand of how businesses actually work.
Posted by KWL85
Member since Mar 2023
2980 posts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 7:53 am to
Everyone has a solution, but there is not a single person posting here that really understands how to fix the problem.

Unless there is someone here that has ran billion dollar companies or been elected to lead a country.
_____

Please don't imply this makes him qualified to solve the problem. He is root cause of the problem and has zero clues on how to solve.
Posted by KWL85
Member since Mar 2023
2980 posts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 8:05 am to
quote:
The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings.
Link to one company which has done that.

(Or, is this gathered from your "model"?)
________

Google it yourself. He is not wrong. Walmart, Meta, Chevron. There have been plenty of layoffs. Some are definitely tied to tariffs.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
31418 posts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 8:13 am to
quote:

Google it yourself. He is not wrong. Walmart, Meta, Chevron. There have been plenty of layoffs. Some are definitely tied to tariffs.

He wasn’t objecting to layoffs being tied to tariffs. He was objecting to the assertion that the layoffs had no economic basis and instead were acts of “protest”.
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
87962 posts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 8:41 am to
you are dealing with the biggest TDS riddled CUCK this site has ever seen.

we have the receipts





Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133447 posts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 11:14 am to
quote:

There have been plenty of layoffs. Some are definitely tied to tariffs.
As a protest for the tariffs? I'm still waiting for a link to that.

If you're going to butt in at least comprehend what you've read first.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133447 posts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 11:17 am to
quote:

He was objecting to the assertion that the layoffs had no economic basis and instead were acts of “protest”.
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
35448 posts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

Moodys has inflation hitting like 3.5% by YE. I could very much see that


Yikes! I think rates have to increase at that point. We’ve had something like 20% cumulative inflation over the last 4 years. Thats not sustainable long term.
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