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Started By
Message
re: Rate cut time!!!
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:49 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:49 pm to LSURussian
quote:
1) Remove all tariffs.
2) Veto all budget bills which do not reduce spending from prior years.
It just cant be that easy.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:50 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Interest rates need to go up.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:51 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Important to note that the bbb did cut spending.
The entirety of its price tag was because the CBO was including the TCJA extension as spending/cost.
Technically the outcome is the same, but I have philosophical qualms with categorizing extension of existing tax rates as spending
For the sake of your philosophical mores, let's ignore everything other than true, pure spending. What was the annual total rate of "spend" before Trump's spending bill, and what was it after?
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:51 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Well duh. I'm aa but I used to warn some folks this day would come. Prince George County is about to turn into Detroit overnight.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:55 pm to RollTide4Ever
quote:
Interest rates need to go up.
Yeah, and Powell wanted to do that.
This post was edited on 9/5/25 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 9/5/25 at 4:11 pm to LSURussian
quote:
You asked "how would you..." and I answered your question.
Ah, we are taking the lazy smartass approach to problem solving.
You might as well have gone with finding a pot of gold at the end of rainbow, it carries the same level success.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 4:25 pm to DarthRebel
quote:No more than you taking the lazy, smartass approach to asking questions.
Ah, we are taking the lazy smartass approach to problem solving.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 8:11 pm to Qwertyburd
quote:
companies are starting to run out of pre tariff inventory, and the price increases haven't truly been digested yet.
That’s what worries me. I don’t think we’ve gotten to the pain yet.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:12 pm to Suntiger
Moodys has inflation hitting like 3.5% by YE. I could very much see that
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:24 pm to Qwertyburd
This is spot on and a great real life example of what’s happening. Here is the other thing people don’t understand: Many of the largest CPG companies across the country operate on year long pricing calendars with the largest retailers.
For example, Pepsi/Coke sells in a year long pricing slotting fee structure to Walmart for their spring reset season and fiscal year calendar. This is baked in. Massive tariff fees on aluminum, in a lot of cases, are not priced into these pricing agreements. But you can bet that this fall or spring, Coke will go through a price increase across the board. Which then applies to the year long promotional calendar that gets sold in.
The largest retailers, Walmart/Target etc can tell the supplier no…to a certain extent…but many retailers don’t have that same pricing power.
TLDR: inflation, driven by tariffs, is delayed. But it is coming.
For example, Pepsi/Coke sells in a year long pricing slotting fee structure to Walmart for their spring reset season and fiscal year calendar. This is baked in. Massive tariff fees on aluminum, in a lot of cases, are not priced into these pricing agreements. But you can bet that this fall or spring, Coke will go through a price increase across the board. Which then applies to the year long promotional calendar that gets sold in.
The largest retailers, Walmart/Target etc can tell the supplier no…to a certain extent…but many retailers don’t have that same pricing power.
TLDR: inflation, driven by tariffs, is delayed. But it is coming.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:54 pm to IMSA_Fan
I don’t see it hitting 3.5%.
I could see 3.0% for 2 months or so.
What Powell and some other fed presidents have been mentioning lately though is the expectation that tariff driven inflation happens in a relatively short burst rather than the 2 year inflation we saw during 2022 and 2023.
The reason is that there is a definable, quantifiable exogenous factor this time (tariffs) rather than a nebulous, cloudy, obscure exogenous factor in 2022 (money supply too high post Covid).
Goldman Sachs is projecting inflation to peak at 3.1% in December and to fall to 2% next year. The reason they don’t see inflation staying at 3% next year is because companies will have already raised their necessary prices to cover the tariff costs.
Demand side inflation (2021,2022,2023) is so much trickier to tame because it’s not quantifiable. There was no way to “predict” 2022 inflation because there is no way to predict juiced consumer demand via stimulus.
Supply side inflation (tariff) is easier to project because you can make decent predictions at how high prices have to increase to cover the new costs.
I could see 3.0% for 2 months or so.
What Powell and some other fed presidents have been mentioning lately though is the expectation that tariff driven inflation happens in a relatively short burst rather than the 2 year inflation we saw during 2022 and 2023.
The reason is that there is a definable, quantifiable exogenous factor this time (tariffs) rather than a nebulous, cloudy, obscure exogenous factor in 2022 (money supply too high post Covid).
Goldman Sachs is projecting inflation to peak at 3.1% in December and to fall to 2% next year. The reason they don’t see inflation staying at 3% next year is because companies will have already raised their necessary prices to cover the tariff costs.
Demand side inflation (2021,2022,2023) is so much trickier to tame because it’s not quantifiable. There was no way to “predict” 2022 inflation because there is no way to predict juiced consumer demand via stimulus.
Supply side inflation (tariff) is easier to project because you can make decent predictions at how high prices have to increase to cover the new costs.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 10:04 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings. It’s wrong to take out your frustration on workers and employees.
There are other ways of protesting tariffs. You can picket the WH, attend town halls, donate to causes, etc.
But telling your workers to take a hike? It’s immoral.
Someone had a full bowl of Marxist propaganda today. Put down the spoon and back away from the bowl, comrade.
Here's some Supply & Demand 101 to clear things up a bit:
-If costs of inputs go up, other costs have to go down or price has to go up (or some of both). Otherwise, you run at a loss until you go bankrupt.
-For just about every business, labor is the single most expensive category of costs (runs ~22%-30% of gross profits, depending on industry).
-Jobs aren't created for workers to have something to do, jobs are created because there is work which needs to be done. If that work dries up, or is expected to dry up, so too do the jobs.
-Businesses don't start cutting filled positions until the work or resources starts drying up. As long as orders are coming in and they can fill them and bring in enough revenue to keep the positions, they do. What can happen, which can cause confusion, is when unfilled positions are cut and claimed as cuts (and that happens).
-No one is owed a job. Jobs aren't created to give someone a paycheck, they are created because a new position is needed to get a certain amount of work done. Some people losing their jobs because the business has slowed too much to afford them is insanely more preferable than everyone losing their jobs because the company had to shut down due to bankruptcy because the owner/CEO was too much of a pussy to cut positions.
This is all to say, no one is firing people to protest tariffs. No one. Not a single fricking place. None. Along with that, it's the height of socialist propaganda idiocy to even make that statement as it shows a complete lack of understand of how businesses actually work.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 7:53 am to DarthRebel
Everyone has a solution, but there is not a single person posting here that really understands how to fix the problem.
Unless there is someone here that has ran billion dollar companies or been elected to lead a country.
_____
Please don't imply this makes him qualified to solve the problem. He is root cause of the problem and has zero clues on how to solve.
Unless there is someone here that has ran billion dollar companies or been elected to lead a country.
_____
Please don't imply this makes him qualified to solve the problem. He is root cause of the problem and has zero clues on how to solve.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 8:05 am to LSURussian
quote:
The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings.
Link to one company which has done that.
(Or, is this gathered from your "model"?)
________
Google it yourself. He is not wrong. Walmart, Meta, Chevron. There have been plenty of layoffs. Some are definitely tied to tariffs.
The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings.
Link to one company which has done that.
(Or, is this gathered from your "model"?)
________
Google it yourself. He is not wrong. Walmart, Meta, Chevron. There have been plenty of layoffs. Some are definitely tied to tariffs.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 8:13 am to KWL85
quote:
Google it yourself. He is not wrong. Walmart, Meta, Chevron. There have been plenty of layoffs. Some are definitely tied to tariffs.
He wasn’t objecting to layoffs being tied to tariffs. He was objecting to the assertion that the layoffs had no economic basis and instead were acts of “protest”.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 8:41 am to Bard
you are dealing with the biggest TDS riddled CUCK this site has ever seen.
we have the receipts
we have the receipts
Posted on 9/6/25 at 11:14 am to KWL85
quote:As a protest for the tariffs? I'm still waiting for a link to that.
There have been plenty of layoffs. Some are definitely tied to tariffs.
If you're going to butt in at least comprehend what you've read first.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 11:17 am to Joshjrn
quote:
He was objecting to the assertion that the layoffs had no economic basis and instead were acts of “protest”.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 1:18 pm to IMSA_Fan
quote:
Moodys has inflation hitting like 3.5% by YE. I could very much see that
Yikes! I think rates have to increase at that point. We’ve had something like 20% cumulative inflation over the last 4 years. Thats not sustainable long term.
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