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Started By
Message
re: Rate cut time!!!
Posted on 9/5/25 at 12:29 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 9/5/25 at 12:29 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
In your view, how bad does the job market have to get for you to get on board with rate cuts?
We likely need to see Unemployment around at least 5% before we can cut rates and not have to worry about being in a stagflation scenario.
There was never an option for a "soft landing".
0
Posted on 9/5/25 at 12:34 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
In your view, how bad does the job market have to get for you to get on board with rate cuts?
The obsession with Powell is a distraction from shite tariff policy
Posted on 9/5/25 at 12:34 pm to LSURussian
You don’t measure the labor market by UE rate
You measure it by monthly job gains
You measure it by monthly job gains
Posted on 9/5/25 at 12:41 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:bullshite.
You measure it by monthly job gains
Besides that stat being the most error prone statistic which is constantly being revised bigly issued by the government, the unemployment rate gives the one of the most reliable forecasts of future wage inflation numbers.
So, answer my question: do you believe 4.3% unemployment is a bad labor market?
Posted on 9/5/25 at 12:52 pm to LSURussian
My model has UE at 7.4%
Posted on 9/5/25 at 12:53 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
My model
Posted on 9/5/25 at 1:01 pm to Joshjrn
Nice diversion.
Even the paltry cuts he’s tried to make in the budgets of federal agencies and NSAID have been subverted by the courts and congress.
Now if you want to appear as if you know what you’re talking about, you could criticize him for not pounding the bully pulpit for Congress to permanently enact cuts, but that wouldn’t be snarky enough.
Even the paltry cuts he’s tried to make in the budgets of federal agencies and NSAID have been subverted by the courts and congress.
Now if you want to appear as if you know what you’re talking about, you could criticize him for not pounding the bully pulpit for Congress to permanently enact cuts, but that wouldn’t be snarky enough.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 1:02 pm to LSURussian
Let me give you a little case study on how coiled inflation is in my view. I purchase large amounts of aluminum extrusions for my company. We order extrusions from domestic mills and international mills. The fact is; there are certain types of profiles, that only international sources have the ability to extrude with quality and in some cases, only international extruders have the equipment to actually extrude it at all.
The section 232 tariff Trump expanded to 25% in the beginning of the year, was easily digested by the aluminum markets; it was already at 10%, so it wasn't really much of a expansion at all. The last expansion when he did the ribbon cutting ceremony on a Friday for Nippon steel, and increases section 232 to 50% is massive. The domestic aluminum markets absorbed 22% of that 25% by Monday when the markets opened again because shocker, almost all the aluminum billet used by domestic extruders is also imported, all the primary that goes into those billets, there is no domestic mines, there is no way to avoid it. That means, domestic, international, Mars; doesn't matter where you buy it, price of aluminum skyrocketed.
We have not changed prices yet. We have eaten into paper surplus inventory, then we reduced the amount we would keep on the floor, finally, we had to start buying in July. We basically pulled every lever possible to avoid increasing prices and the levers are no more. The first big shipment since that expansion will hit our dock next week. We will be forced to increase our overall product prices by something like 15% by the end of September. I was listening to CNBC this morning and they were talking about this very fact that companies are starting to run out of pre tariff inventory, and the price increases haven't truly been digested yet.
Add to this, it's been signaled that if the reciprocal tariffs are not upheld by USSC, than they will double down on the industry specific tariffs in order to generate the expected revenue. If they move this again, it will break the aluminum market; even inside the US. I'm talking like, we cant make this widget out of aluminum anymore, what are some alternatives.
Cutting rates into this situation scares me.
The section 232 tariff Trump expanded to 25% in the beginning of the year, was easily digested by the aluminum markets; it was already at 10%, so it wasn't really much of a expansion at all. The last expansion when he did the ribbon cutting ceremony on a Friday for Nippon steel, and increases section 232 to 50% is massive. The domestic aluminum markets absorbed 22% of that 25% by Monday when the markets opened again because shocker, almost all the aluminum billet used by domestic extruders is also imported, all the primary that goes into those billets, there is no domestic mines, there is no way to avoid it. That means, domestic, international, Mars; doesn't matter where you buy it, price of aluminum skyrocketed.
We have not changed prices yet. We have eaten into paper surplus inventory, then we reduced the amount we would keep on the floor, finally, we had to start buying in July. We basically pulled every lever possible to avoid increasing prices and the levers are no more. The first big shipment since that expansion will hit our dock next week. We will be forced to increase our overall product prices by something like 15% by the end of September. I was listening to CNBC this morning and they were talking about this very fact that companies are starting to run out of pre tariff inventory, and the price increases haven't truly been digested yet.
Add to this, it's been signaled that if the reciprocal tariffs are not upheld by USSC, than they will double down on the industry specific tariffs in order to generate the expected revenue. If they move this again, it will break the aluminum market; even inside the US. I'm talking like, we cant make this widget out of aluminum anymore, what are some alternatives.
Cutting rates into this situation scares me.
This post was edited on 9/5/25 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 9/5/25 at 1:37 pm to jlnoles79
quote:
The obsession with Powell is a distraction from shite tariff policy
Like hating Mexicans while importing Indians.
All theater.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 1:43 pm to saint tiger225
quote:
The fiscal policy coming from the white house certainly isn't one that's conducive to lowering inflation
Please explain how you would lower inflation?
Posted on 9/5/25 at 1:49 pm to DarthRebel
quote:1) Remove all tariffs.
Please explain how you would lower inflation?
2) Veto all budget bills which do not reduce spending from prior years.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:11 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:
Nice diversion.
Even the paltry cuts he’s tried to make in the budgets of federal agencies and NSAID have been subverted by the courts and congress.
Now if you want to appear as if you know what you’re talking about, you could criticize him for not pounding the bully pulpit for Congress to permanently enact cuts, but that wouldn’t be snarky enough.
It's not a diversion. Literally everyone on this board knows that Congress drafts and passes spending bills. Pretending as though that was new information was a diversion on your part.
In the half dozen, to pushing a dozen, posts I've made on the subject, it's obvious that I'm talking about his position behind the bully pulpit both on spending and on rate cuts. In fact, I've used that exact turn of phrase repeatedly, with one idiot even crying about my calling Trump "a bully" when I did so.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:13 pm to LSURussian
quote:
1) Remove all tariffs.
2) Veto all budget bills which do not reduce spending from prior years.
Show me how that would work with our current political climate. Maybe list all the times these have worked
-Remove all tariffs.
-Veto all budget bills which do not reduce spending from prior years.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:16 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
Show me how that would work with our current political climate.
What a starting premise... I guess we are just fked then.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:23 pm to Pendulum
quote:
I guess we are just fked then
Probably the only accurate thing posted in this thread so far
Everyone has a solution, but there is not a single person posting here that really understands how to fix the problem.
Unless there is someone here that has ran billion dollar companies or been elected to lead a country.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:29 pm to DarthRebel
quote:Nope. You asked "how would you..." and I answered your question. You have a short memory.
Show me how that would work with our current political climate.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:36 pm to DarthRebel
The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings. It’s wrong to take out your frustration on workers and employees.
There are other ways of protesting tariffs. You can picket the WH, attend town halls, donate to causes, etc.
But telling your workers to take a hike? It’s immoral.
There are other ways of protesting tariffs. You can picket the WH, attend town halls, donate to causes, etc.
But telling your workers to take a hike? It’s immoral.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:48 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
It’s imperative we cut rates so that foreigners and private equity can keep buying up everything and making it shitty
The interest rate should go to 100% tbh
The interest rate should go to 100% tbh
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:09 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Link to one company which has done that.
The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings.
(Or, is this gathered from your "model"?)
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:49 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The solution is for bitter business owners to stop protesting their dislike of tariffs via hiring freezes/firings. It’s wrong to take out your frustration on workers and employees.
There are other ways of protesting tariffs. You can picket the WH, attend town halls, donate to causes, etc.
But telling your workers to take a hike? It’s immoral.
Shuffle around a few words and the Progressives on DU would be extremely proud of you.
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