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Random thoughts about Amazon

Posted on 5/17/23 at 6:59 pm
Posted by Grassy1
Member since Oct 2009
6256 posts
Posted on 5/17/23 at 6:59 pm
Not necessarily about the value of the stock price, but obviously if my thoughts have any validity, it would eventually be reflected there.

As a hobby, I should do more research, but I find this company fascinating.

Interesting points:

- how they were able to develop their own delivery service that rivals the two giants that took decades to develop. (I was in this biz for a decade, and experienced the difficulty of training, etc)

- and somehow they arguably have the most competitive pricing of anyone now or previously

- spent massive amounts to build their infrastructure relatively at the speed of light (it seems to me)

-how in the world are they profitable??

-if they are, will they remain?

-I noticed they recently changed their free return policy (shipping) to about $7.00 unless you bring your item to Kohls. This didn't surprise me at all; returning any item was too painless.

Anyone else find any of this interesting?



ETA: I'm open to listening or reading some broad opinions about this company if you have any suggestions.
This post was edited on 5/17/23 at 7:01 pm
Posted by ShootingsBricks4Life
Member since May 2017
2601 posts
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:49 pm to
quote:

-I noticed they recently changed their free return policy (shipping) to about $7.00 unless you bring your item to Kohls. This didn't surprise me at all; returning any item was too painless.



I drop my items off at Whole foods and it's free returns unless that has changed in the last month.

quote:

-how in the world are they profitable??



I believe they make the majority of their money on the subscriptions. I'd love to know the percentage of customers who buy a ton of stuff online though.
Posted by UltimaParadox
Huntsville
Member since Nov 2008
40858 posts
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:55 pm to
quote:

how in the world are they profitable


For most of recent history the profit all came from Amazon Web services (AWS) and not from the selling of goods.

AWS is the profit engine, they are losing money otherwise
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2005 posts
Posted on 5/17/23 at 10:16 pm to
Don’t forget about Advertising revenue ($35B) and subscription services ($37B). Amazon is not just an e-commerce company.
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2005 posts
Posted on 5/17/23 at 10:18 pm to
quote:

I believe they make the majority of their money on the subscriptions.


The overwhelming majority of Amazon’s profit comes from AWS. Almost all other business segments are losing money.
Posted by ShootingsBricks4Life
Member since May 2017
2601 posts
Posted on 5/17/23 at 10:49 pm to
quote:

The overwhelming majority of Amazon’s profit comes from AWS. Almost all other business segments are losing money.



Totally. I was focusing on just that side of the business.

Once that is ran by robots it'll be fine...I kid...sorta.
This post was edited on 5/17/23 at 11:20 pm
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11585 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 8:47 am to
quote:

-I noticed they recently changed their free return policy (shipping) to about $7.00 unless you bring your item to Kohls. This didn't surprise me at all; returning any item was too painless.


I don't think this has changed across the board. Maybe it's because of my Prime membership, but I still have free returns to any UPS Store, no box or packaging needed. It's about as convenient as you can get. Walk in, hand the item to the clerk, and let them scan a QR code on my phone. Done.
Posted by Shamoan
Member since Feb 2019
9208 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 9:38 am to
with retailers closing down, particularly in larger cities (recently due to billions in theft), this is and expanding horizon for Amazon. i am pretty bullish on it when you couple that with their other services, but im an idiot, so take that for what its worth.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18936 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 9:40 am to
I heard they sell their books for a loss on purpose.
Posted by WB Davis
Member since May 2018
2078 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 11:58 am to
Amazon treats its customers like God and its sellers like crap.

Sellers are desperate for a better-managed platform.

Posted by bostitch
Member since Apr 2016
535 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

I heard they sell their books for a loss on purpose


That's called a loss leader. Sell something at a loss that brings in customers who will then buy other, more expensive shite.

For a long time the strategy was to price according to competitors and undercut where possible. Most of the pricing decisions aren't actually Amazon Retail decisions - at least that used to be the case
Posted by bostitch
Member since Apr 2016
535 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

how they were able to develop their own delivery service that rivals the two giants that took decades to develop. (I was in this biz for a decade, and experienced the difficulty of training, etc)


So their delivery service is not even close to cheaper than UPS, FedEx, USPS. But it is faster and with better quality. Speed - stays in network so less touches. Quality - if they lose the order or its trending late they have visibility and can immediately send another next day air and you never know. But very expensive and ran by an outfit that prioritizes the AMZL P&L vs the company P&L. They're struggling pretty hard.
Posted by GhostOfFreedom
Member since Jan 2021
11711 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 6:43 pm to
1). ecommerce - Wal$mart is better. Often items can be found cheaper on Walmart website, plus, you can return items to any walmart service center, and for delivery, they can "door dash" items from local stores, often within hours. Also, GameStop is now in on the game and offers 2hour delivery on many items. They are also no longer just games.

2). Cloud - they lost a lot of their luster when they killed Parlor - a growing conservative alternative to twitter. They killed them in less than a week at the urging of other tech tyrants. This has sent many looking for alternatives (Azure, Google - although part of the dangerous tech tyranny, they haven't killed off major clients, yet)

3). Prime - lots of people dropping this last year because of woke policies.

------
4th Quarter 22 loss of $2.7 billion!
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-reports-net-loss-of-2-7-billion-for-2022/

I think it was first quarterly loss in years. Meanwhile, supposedly going bankrupt GameStop surprised most with a positive 4th quarter.

4th quarter (Christmas) is supposed to be big bucks for retail so the big surprise was Amazon's loss. Article gives several reasons they gave like a failing ev car investment.

Posted by Philzilla
Member since Nov 2011
1374 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

how they were able to develop their own delivery service that rivals the two giants that took decades to develop. (I was in this biz for a decade, and experienced the difficulty of training, etc)

They didn’t. They copied the model of DHL and Airborne Express.
Posted by bostitch
Member since Apr 2016
535 posts
Posted on 5/18/23 at 6:58 pm to
2.3B of that 2.7B was a Rivian write down, right?

And yeah, peak represents like 1/3 of Amazon's volume or something like it. Q4 they invested 100s of millions in excess capacity in all parts of their trans network (SC, ZL, Air, MM) to protect Speed. Then in the face of consciously running high buffered capacity they dealt with volume coming in light all year and having to feed 3rd party carriers to meet contractual commitments. So all this excess capacity was unused because they essentially had too many mouths to feed.
Posted by KWL85
Member since Mar 2023
1164 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 8:49 am to
Wal-Mart ecommerce is better? Nope.

Cloud business is strong.

Prime - price increases and more choices with other companies are main effect on people dropping memberships.
Posted by oneg8rh8r
Port Ludlow, WA
Member since Dec 2003
2701 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 9:35 am to
Here's your answer, it's 6 AM on the West coast on Sunday am, I am drinking coffee and eating breakfast and I have already made 2 purchases from Amazon today. Probably not done.

I drive to work during the weekdays and during my trip if the timing is right, I usually pass no less than 3 DOZEN Amazon trucks headed out for deliveries.
Posted by gpburdell
ATL
Member since Jun 2015
1423 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

Maybe it's because of my Prime membership, but I still have free returns to any UPS Store, no box or packaging needed.


Even with Prime, you can be charged for a return via UPS. It depends on the reason you choose for returning; I've seen this myself. Though it also may depend on the item (i.e. weight).
This post was edited on 5/21/23 at 12:44 pm
Posted by MSTiger33
Member since Oct 2007
20384 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 1:09 pm to
I went to Wal Mart yesterday to buy a simple 20W square for an iPhone charger. This item was of course locked in glass. Spent ten minutes looking for someone to open the case. Finally said f it. Ordered same item for $1 cheaper from Amazon delivered today.

I think Amazon will continue to grow as consumers get frustrated having to find a store employee to unlock a case for what appears to be an increasing amount of inventory.
Posted by hiltacular
NYC
Member since Jan 2011
19677 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 7:54 am to
quote:

I think Amazon will continue to grow as consumers get frustrated having to find a store employee to unlock a case for what appears to be an increasing amount of inventory.


I think WMT will continue to grow as consumers realize they have a pretty efficient ecommerce operation and you can buy their catalog without having to go into the store

I am way more bullish on WMT than I am AMZN at this point.
This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 7:55 am
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