re: Origin Materials Stock- Hopefully my ticket to financial freedom.

Sucky last week to the year with the selloff and the slight delay on O1 plant mechanical completion due to the blizzard in Ontario, but I really think 2023 will be a game changing year for ORGN.

I'm hoping that the O1 plant producing these products at scale and close to projected margins will result in a flood of institutional investors into this one as they have to allocate a certain % of their portfolio to ESG friendly investments.

Once the company can start generating revenues and prove tech can scale and be cost competitive with oil even at $40-50, then I think you can light the candle on this one. My price targets are $10 by year end 2023, $15 by year end 2024, and $25 by year end 2025 (once O2 plant should be up and running in Geismar, LA).

$9 billion in demand actually!

Not sure. They are now up to six undisclosed major partners as well.

It’s pre revenue right now but O1 plant is expected to do about $150M sales annualized and be breakeven in gross profit. O1 is a pathfinder/demo scale plant designed to work on product integration with their customers. O2 is the first true industrial scale plant, will be solely focused on PET chemicals, and is supposed to produce about $385M gross profit. O3 and beyond plants are supposed to focus on PEF chemicals and are projected to do about $400M gross profit.

So they aren’t projected to make a profit until 2026 (once O2 is operating all year). I would not expect dividends until the mid 2030’s at earliest as there is demand for dozens of these plants so reinvesting into additional plants has a higher NPV than paying dividends. Licensing deals, tax incentives, and government cost shares will be key to avoid dilution to fund the O3 and beyond plants.

The investor presentation on their website has a ton of good info.

Do you know locals involved on the project?

Yeah their website still says mid 2025 for O2 startup, but the DCF i built on them assumes 2026. One of the Louisiana board meetings to approve their PAB bonds was postponed as a member was sick so that was one setback that we know of.

Bigger question in my mind is do licensing deals or takeout offers come after O1 is built or after O2 is built?

Management has earnout tranches that vest if share price hits $15 by June ‘24, $20 by June 25, and $25 by June 26th, so they need to get rolling soon to hit those. I think they’ll either get bought out or have several licensing deals after O1 goes live. The push on the carbon emissions front is just so strong right now in corporate America. If $5 gas didn’t stop that then nothing will.

Delays caused from what variables?

And did they say anything about if they thought it would end up being a dual train facility?