Origin Materials Stock- Hopefully my ticket to financial freedom.

Similar conviction here. My holdings from largest to smallest are: SpaceX, ORGN, IBATF, and SPIR. Still holding onto lots of cash as the market is spooky.

If ORGN's tech can work at commercial scale, it's going to be a multi multi bagger regardless of inflation or other daily stock market noise.

Cliff notes for those who aren't familiar with this one:
O1 factory comes online in early 2023 most likely
O2 factory comes online in mid 2025 in Geismar, Louisiana
- continued insider buying by management and SPAC sponsors (which is almost unheard of in SPAC world).
- O1 factory is running about 3-6 months ahead of schedule so far.

Not sure where you are getting that $46M in cash from, I believe it was closer to $350M or $3/share at year end.

On page 45 in this link you can see estimated O2 plant capex at $1.072B LINK

On the last quarterly call they think that O2 can be fully financed between tax incentives ($100M), state/government bonds ($700M+ I think), and existing cash on the balance sheet. So no dilution should be needed until O3 factory construction at the earliest.

The holy grail is licensing potential once they can prove scale with O1. IF that is possible, $100+ per share is not off the table imho.

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Not sure where you are getting that $46M in cash from, I believe it was closer to $350M or $3/share at year end.

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I just glanced at the cash amount on the 10K balance sheet. Now I see the additional $397 million in a basket of securities. Looks good and I'll be doing more research.

Yep i have 100K commons and 100K warrants.

When will construction at the geismar plant start?
Also they say they will use wood but will the main raw material really be sugarcane slash?

Construction supposed to start mid 2023. They have a variety of intake products, really anything cellulose based. Pulpwood, wood waste, bagasse, etc. Probably can use some rice by products as well.

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I stopped reading at the material weakness in the internal controls for financial reporting disclosure.

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Do you have a link to that? Thanks.

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Do you have a link to that? Thanks.

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Page 19 of the latest 10k

It's pre-revenue until 2023 when O1 factory comes online. 10K's are designed to have boilerplate language covering every conceivable risk factor. I think they had like 70 employees at year end and are now at over 100 to staffing issues are obviously getting addressed. I looked at the material weakness section on page 19 and it stated it has been remediated but future ones could arise, which is standard CYA language to have in there. These kind of issues are very commonplace for pre-revenue companies, which justifiably so can make them not attractive to many investors. Most pre-revenue companies will indeed go belly up, so we're out here trying to find diamonds in the rough.

The 800 lb elephant in the room is does the tech work at commercial scale and is it close to cost competitive to oil? If the answer to those questions is yes then all the other problems you have identified will be easily rectifiable.

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I stopped reading at the material weakness in the internal controls for financial reporting disclosure.

Good luck boys

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As is your right to do. Bluntly though - I would expect a SPAC to have this in the year of acquisition of a pre revenue target... last thing such company would need is a large robust accounting department.

Further, given the SEC questioned most SPACS warrant accounting - most got a MW for that alone.

Pre revenue companies, if efficient, do not have robust accounting divisions. That is why the SEC raised the 404(b) threshold to include a $100 million revenue threshold before audit... as it does not provide value.

I didnt write off Costco in 2018 with their MW, and I wouldn't write this off solely for that either

Just saw your follow up post: Man you give a lot of credence to Item 9a.... the SEC is glad someone does I am sure