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Started By
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2
Posted on 1/17/16 at 12:04 pm to Enfuego
quote:
The lifting of Iran sanctions are going push to price prices down even further. Buckle up.
as will the saudis putting more oil on the market this year. That's the latest. Nothing new. It's why it might take years for a recovery. Expect the worst and hope for the best.
Posted on 1/17/16 at 5:25 pm to Enfuego
Posted on 1/18/16 at 7:40 am to LSU1NSEC
quote:
my charts showing oil might be ready for a correction (upward)
I expect it do continue dropping below $20.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 8:24 am to redstick13
WTI trading higher than Brent. Strange days indeed.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 11:14 am to redstick13
quote:
I expect it do continue dropping below $20.
I see no technical analysis of these charts that shows it leveling out. downward trend. There have not been many good 1,2,3 tops and bottoms formations lately either. When will we hit support levels? who knows.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 3:34 pm to Fat Bastard
Let's say oil goes down to $20. How much lower would that push RDS-B and COP?
The 8% div yield is looking pretty attractive assuming they maintain current levels.
The 8% div yield is looking pretty attractive assuming they maintain current levels.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 4:23 pm to Larry Gooseman
Rig count is down 50%, WTI is trading higher then Bernt. I just don't think we've got much more downward pressure. This is purely a big picture thought. I have no idea what OPEC is planning on doing as I haven't kept up, so in other words, I didn't put a lot of due diligence into this post.
In past bear markets, normally rig count at 50% is the turning point. Per the OSU guy.
Some pretty smart energy guys on here. Possibly let me know what other factors I'm missing here if you would please?
In past bear markets, normally rig count at 50% is the turning point. Per the OSU guy.
Some pretty smart energy guys on here. Possibly let me know what other factors I'm missing here if you would please?
Posted on 1/18/16 at 5:38 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Per the OSU guy.
Well, he has been wrong for the last $50 or so.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 5:47 pm to Janky
I don't think so. He said 70, then in October publicly admitted he was wrong, and went into some detail about why he was wrong. I might have missed something though.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 5:49 pm to Iowa Golfer
He has been calling the bottom every $10 dollars or so.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 5:55 pm to Janky
OK.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 7:03 pm to Iowa Golfer
It will probably get to 25, maybe 20 but can't see much lower than that. I've been waiting on the Iran news. Last big event to drop imo.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 7:40 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:One that no one is talking about is auto sales numbers. A lot of the auto manufacturers are posting great sales, but everyone is too freaked out about China, oil, etc., that no one has noticed. And more importantly is that I believe the big sales are for the gas-guzzling vehicles - which should boost demand a bit.
Possibly let me know what other factors I'm missing here if you would please?
The US still needs its over-leveraged oil companies to go belly up and stop producing, though. Then the big guys can buy their assets on the cheap and make a killing, along with whoever owns the big boys' stock.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 8:06 pm to Omada
I've read we're on pace to use 95 bo (demand), and the supply is 1MM bo over what it should be for demand. Increased demand should eat it up fairly quickly. Or so say OSU guy. And some others.
Now that's what I read. But my instinct is although rig count is down, frakers are still pumping to service debt, so supply is not drying up as fast as one would expect. I think frakers can make money at $26, so I'd anticipate some capitulation, or at least less pumping under this price point.
Not much worry about the majors I own and intend to keep buying. Mostly those with downstream operations, which will also limit some upside, but these are the only ones I'm comfortable buying on the way down. Recently their decline hasn't really been too dramatic. But I do have that ERN holding, so that one causes some concern.
Now that's what I read. But my instinct is although rig count is down, frakers are still pumping to service debt, so supply is not drying up as fast as one would expect. I think frakers can make money at $26, so I'd anticipate some capitulation, or at least less pumping under this price point.
Not much worry about the majors I own and intend to keep buying. Mostly those with downstream operations, which will also limit some upside, but these are the only ones I'm comfortable buying on the way down. Recently their decline hasn't really been too dramatic. But I do have that ERN holding, so that one causes some concern.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 8:22 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:Still have all of that oil in storage, here and around the world. But the declining storage reports would boost price some. No clue how Iran fits into this.
I've read we're on pace to use 95 bo (demand), and the supply is 1MM bo over what it should be for demand. Increased demand should eat it up fairly quickly.
quote:CEO/founder keeps buying shares, and he indirectly owns like 55% of the debt, with only $25 million of the debt he owns not being convertible. That $25 million promissory note has the lowest interest of all the debt they have (30 day LIBOR +2%) and isn't due until July 30 2017. Now, there is a $50 million convertible note he owns that comes due in December with interest of LIBOR +5%. I figure he will just roll that into a new note or something.
But I do have that ERN holding, so that one causes some concern.
All of their other debt isn't due until fall 2019. Cashflow and prices staying low for too long are their biggest issues. If oil gets back to $50, I think they'll be okay. At $60, they can really start expanding production.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 8:30 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
It will probably get to 25, maybe 20 but can't see much lower than that. I've been waiting on the Iran news. Last big event to drop imo.
No offense but the drivers of the current situation want it lower and lower it will go. Our current oversupply condition will not end anytime soon and will continue to worsen, the blood is only begining to flow.
Posted on 1/18/16 at 9:46 pm to cave canem
I read that the break-even cost for most large producers is around $10 but I doubt it ever gets close to that.
Anyone else looking at buying OOTM futures options for crude right now?
Anyone else looking at buying OOTM futures options for crude right now?
Posted on 1/18/16 at 11:36 pm to sleepytime
The only guys breaking even anywhere near $10 is SA and some of the other gulf countries.
And caveman I am expect to see a lot of shale producers starting to go belly up in the spring time. And after thinking about it below 20 is probably a good possibility. However SA is hemorrhaging money and under a lot of pressure to start cutting back. Some of the other gulf states are starting to change their tunes of cutting production including Oman. That being said another recession hits and all bets are off.
And caveman I am expect to see a lot of shale producers starting to go belly up in the spring time. And after thinking about it below 20 is probably a good possibility. However SA is hemorrhaging money and under a lot of pressure to start cutting back. Some of the other gulf states are starting to change their tunes of cutting production including Oman. That being said another recession hits and all bets are off.
Posted on 1/19/16 at 12:19 am to GREENHEAD22
With all this negative talk I'm starting to think now is the time to buy buy buy.
sell whenever people are happy and buy when they are fearful or whatever - Warren Buffet
sell whenever people are happy and buy when they are fearful or whatever - Warren Buffet
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