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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:09 pm to finchmeister08
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:09 pm to finchmeister08
I saw some conspiracy theories involving Musk and Coinbase the other day.
Are they not so crazy?
Are they not so crazy?
0
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:10 pm to GeneralLee
Lol there won’t be a cypto bear for years - there is to much new Implementation - the past cycles mean nothing - we are in a super cycle with zero end for a long long time. I’m having boomers ask how to get in daily. This is just getting started
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:12 pm to NashvilleTider
These altcoin valuations will 100% be going much lower than where they are now. This week, month, or year.
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:16 pm to maclauer
quote:We are in the bottom of the 3rd inning for this current cycle.
This kinda feels like the beginning of the end
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:21 pm to NashvilleTider
Retail interest is still sky high
Institutional interest in Bitcoin likely hit a snag that it’ll take some time to emerge from.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin likely hit a snag that it’ll take some time to emerge from.
This post was edited on 5/15/21 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:21 pm to TigerTatorTots
My largest holdings in order
Algo
LINK
XLM
BTC
ETH
DASH
AAVE
Algo
LINK
XLM
BTC
ETH
DASH
AAVE
Posted on 5/15/21 at 1:41 pm to tduecen
Rocket (or anyone I guess)-
you posted a chart on april 24th that showed the price of btc in each 4 year cycle and it looked really consistent. Doing the math from the '13 and '17 cycles (and using '21 as a guide so far) it looks like we would continue a big run until late fall or early winter then see a dip in december/january.
Also I remember you saying the other day about "alt season" which I am/was unfamiliar with but sounded like a time when btc would stagnate and other smaller coins would pump. I also understand that this generally happens/happened in winter.
My ultimate question is 2 fold: is it common that for whatever reason bitcoin generally sees a bear run around december/january? And also if that is the general trend annually, why does everyone not just sell off a shite ton of bitcoin in the fall as it's rising hard then buy it back in december/january?
you posted a chart on april 24th that showed the price of btc in each 4 year cycle and it looked really consistent. Doing the math from the '13 and '17 cycles (and using '21 as a guide so far) it looks like we would continue a big run until late fall or early winter then see a dip in december/january.
Also I remember you saying the other day about "alt season" which I am/was unfamiliar with but sounded like a time when btc would stagnate and other smaller coins would pump. I also understand that this generally happens/happened in winter.
My ultimate question is 2 fold: is it common that for whatever reason bitcoin generally sees a bear run around december/january? And also if that is the general trend annually, why does everyone not just sell off a shite ton of bitcoin in the fall as it's rising hard then buy it back in december/january?
Posted on 5/15/21 at 2:13 pm to down time
quote:
These altcoin valuations will 100% be going much lower than where they are now. This week, month, or year.
quote:
down time
Checks out
Posted on 5/15/21 at 2:23 pm to NashvilleTider
quote:
Lol there won’t be a cypto bear for years - there is to much new Implementation - the past cycles mean nothing - we are in a super cycle with zero end for a long long time.
This time it’s different? I really hope you are right but the speculative froth in the altcoin market has already surpassed 2017 and I know most of these are headed for 90+% corrections but hoping it’s still a ways off as well. I do think we will never see a crypto winter as brutal as this last one again.
Posted on 5/15/21 at 2:57 pm to WG_Dawg
It’s a 3.5 year cycle.
It’s looking like this one is ending early but depending on model, it was pretty close.
Halvening model had the btc peak at 100kish but raw ratios had the peak around 55-65k (apprx 20x cycle low of 3k).
Using the same ratio method and an 80% btc pull back, you’re looking at a low of 13-20k sometime over the next year and a half for btc.
It’s looking like this one is ending early but depending on model, it was pretty close.
Halvening model had the btc peak at 100kish but raw ratios had the peak around 55-65k (apprx 20x cycle low of 3k).
Using the same ratio method and an 80% btc pull back, you’re looking at a low of 13-20k sometime over the next year and a half for btc.
Posted on 5/15/21 at 2:59 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
This kinda feels like the beginning of the end
We are in the bottom of the 3rd inning for this current cycle.
My sentiments.
Posted on 5/15/21 at 3:18 pm to maclauer
quote:Thisbis how you know it isn’t. When everyone is SURE BTC is going to $350k any day now, that’s when it’s the end.
This kinda feels like the beginning of the end
Posted on 5/15/21 at 3:21 pm to Tiguar
quote:
Using the same ratio method and an 80% btc pull back, you’re looking at a low of 13-20k sometime over the next year and a half for btc.
So what you're saying is dump money in BTC in that price range and patiently wait for the next bull run and cash out?
Posted on 5/15/21 at 3:31 pm to Tiguar
Ppl need to relax
Posted on 5/15/21 at 3:41 pm to TigerTatorTots
Posted on 5/15/21 at 4:22 pm to WG_Dawg
this image is basically where everyone is trying to time the top, so mid/late september
keep in mind that this is only the 3rd cycle, so we have only had two previous cycle data points which means no one really knows what will happen
the trend at the top of the previous two cycles was to sell alts into bitcoin but with the stable coins and other yield options, im not sure if that will happen this time around
Posted on 5/15/21 at 4:26 pm to JayDeerTay84
must be nice to be an ADA backer 
Posted on 5/15/21 at 4:37 pm to Powerman
That’s what I’m doing. Everyone should do what you feel comfortable with.
The rule of thumb I live by in crypto is if your investment isn’t going to 5-10x soon, it should be elsewhere cause that’s where the risk starts to outweigh the benefit.
The absolute most you would see from btc this cycle from its current spot is 2x- that’s a no from me.
I personally don’t believe eth will break 5k this cycle- that’s a no from me.
There are some alt coins that can still 5-10x but they probably aren’t going to be ones in the top 20 or even 50 market cap right now.
Just how I operate. Others risk tolerance is higher and therefore could make more...or lose more.
The rule of thumb I live by in crypto is if your investment isn’t going to 5-10x soon, it should be elsewhere cause that’s where the risk starts to outweigh the benefit.
The absolute most you would see from btc this cycle from its current spot is 2x- that’s a no from me.
I personally don’t believe eth will break 5k this cycle- that’s a no from me.
There are some alt coins that can still 5-10x but they probably aren’t going to be ones in the top 20 or even 50 market cap right now.
Just how I operate. Others risk tolerance is higher and therefore could make more...or lose more.
Posted on 5/15/21 at 4:52 pm to rocket31
quote:
rocket31
So looking at that chart, would it be wise to sell some btc around fall (not a specific date of course, just somewhere around Sept/Oct) and wait for an expected dip around December/January?
Posted on 5/15/21 at 5:00 pm to WG_Dawg
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