re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

I have some 75 dollar calls for 9/19 and 10/17. Are most of yall getting out of those right now or riding with them? I purchased near the bottom yesterday so I am sitting about even right now with them.

I agree… I just quit looking at it for today.

I thought about it. Even had an alert at 100

It really boils down to CapX and debt doesn’t it? To do what these companies are doing costs a ton of capital.

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Also NVDA reports holdings tomorrow or Friday.

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Any news on this yet?

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Also NVDA reports holdings tomorrow or Friday.

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I thought it was later this month? August 27th...

Shift is happening. August 21 will hopefully be another monster day.

According to my voter sheet, they will reelect all the BoDs, agree to a 20M buy back held in treasury and potential share buyback that can happen within 18 months in 1 vote and up to 5 years in another for common


Predicted the CRWV shitshow on earnings, overestimated what it would do to NBIS…but it’s coming back strong now

The flippening will bring a reckoning. That’s going to be a major day when it happens.

Will be interesting... I asked ChatGPT for a comparison, here's what it said:

Here’s a sharp investor-focused comparison between Nebius and CoreWeave, highlighting their financials, risks, strategic positioning, and market outlook:

Financial Performance & Growth
Nebius

Q4 2024 Revenue: $37.9 million, up 466% YoY. Full-year 2024: $117.5 million, a 462% increase.

Adjusted EBITDA loss: $266.4 million.

Net loss: $396.9 million.

Cash reserves: $2.45 billion as of Dec 31, 2024.

CapEx (2024): $808 million.

Nebius Group

ARR (Annualized Run Rate): Around $90 million in Dec 2024; projected $220 million by March 2025, with $750 million–$1 billion targeted by end of 2025.

Nebius Group
Bankwatch

2025 Revenue Guidance: Between $500–$700 million.
Global Footprint: Data centers in the U.S., Finland, France, Iceland, Israel.
Market Cap: Approx. $9 billion.

Bankwatch

CoreWeave

2024 Revenue: Nearly $1.9 billion (˜700% YoY growth), with net loss of $863 million.

Forbes
Roic AI
Wikipedia

Q1 2025: Revenue surged 420% YoY to $982 million; Adjusted EBITDA up 6x to $606 million (margin ~62%).
Backlog: $25.9 billion (incl. $11.2 billion from OpenAI).

Investing.com
Stock Titan

Q2 2025: Revenue tripled YoY to $1.21 billion; net loss narrowed to $290 million.
Revenue backlog: $30.1 billion.
Active power: 470 MW; contracted: 2.2 GW.
Raised $2.6 billion in debt to finance growth.

Investing.com
Capacity Media

Debt Load: At least $8 billion drawn, with another $4.4 billion available.
Interest expense: ~$360 million (2024); debt servicing costs represent major cash drain.

LinkedIn
Reddit

Growth Strategy & Customer Base
Nebius

Diversified across 20+ industries, including healthcare (Genentech, AstraZeneca), AI startups, media/telecom, robotics.

AInvest

Technology Partners: NVIDIA (launch partner for Blackwell AI platform), Accel, value-added resellers, ecosystem alliances.
Holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse and owns subsidiaries like Avride and TripleTen.

Bankwatch
Wikipedia

CoreWeave

Major contracts with OpenAI ($11–12 billion), Microsoft (~62% of 2024 revenue), Nvidia, IBM.
Customer concentration risk is significant—top two clients make up ~77% of revenue.

LinkedIn
Reddit
Wikipedia

Deep strategic alliance with NVIDIA, which owns a stake and supports infrastructure; also completed acquisition of Weights & Biases.

Roic AI
Proactiveinvestors NA
Wikipedia

Massive infrastructure footprint: 32 data centers, 250K+ Nvidia GPUs, multiple U.S./Europe locations.

Roic AI
Wikipedia

Risks & Financial Health
Nebius

Strong cash position and liquidity support its growth.

Analysts expect EBITDA positivity by late 2025 and strong upside (~40%).

Bankwatch

CoreWeave

Heavy debt burden and short debt maturities through 2025–26; high refinancing and liquidity risk.

LinkedIn
Financial Times

Losses remain pronounced; profitability is elusive despite high revenue.

Barron's
Financial Times
Investopedia
Stock Titan

Revenue dependency on a few large clients poses concentration risk; any shift could significantly impact earnings.

LinkedIn
Reddit

IPO lock-up expiry triggered stock volatility and insider selling (>$1 billion), which rattled investors.

Financial Times
Investors

Some market commentators warn CoreWeave resembles a leveraged, high-risk model (compared to WeWork), and its ultra-high valuation may be unjustified.

MarketWatch

Investor Summary Table
Metric Nebius CoreWeave
Revenue (2024/Q1 2025) Modest (~$100M), fast-growing ARR Large ($1.9B), explosive YoY growth
Profitability Deep losses, but EBITDA approaching positive Significant losses, narrow margins despite high EBITDA
Liquidity & Cash Strong cash reserves (~$2.45B) High debt; cash from IPO and notes, but heavy servicing burden
Customer Base Broad and diversified Highly concentrated (~77% from two clients)
Valuation & Market Cap ~$9B; valuations seem forward-looking ~$20–60B; valuation reflects AI hype and scale
Risk Profile Moderate — scaling with control High — leverage, customer risk, debt maturities, margin stress
Final Take:

Nebius is a sharper pick for investors seeking growth in AI cloud infrastructure with more cautious capital discipline, solid liquidity, and robust diversification.

CoreWeave, by contrast, is a high-growth, high-risk juggernaut — incredible revenue momentum and service backlog, but burdened by debt, client concentration, and volatile investor sentiment. It’s a bet on runway execution and macro AI demand.

Betweeen the the growth in both NBIS and CRWV does that spell more good news for NVDA? They probably can’t sell their GPUs fast enough.