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Message
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 3/17/26 at 9:47 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 3/17/26 at 9:47 pm to bayoubengals88
Another positive sign for future prospects. Hopefully this thing is 200 by end of year
0
Posted on 3/17/26 at 10:40 pm to bayoubengals88
What I also watch for is NBIS does play it a little sneaky with the 'principle premium" - ie. the notes accrete up 15% above face value - this is in addition to standard interest. Atleast the last notes had that.
Call it what you want, it is 15% more cash (or shares) beyond what you borrowed - I call that interest (and it is accounted for as interest effectively)
I am hearing rumors it may be 20% this time which I hope is not true
Edit: In the grand scheme of things it is not a huge deal - it is just a little misleading. I am fine with the offering
Call it what you want, it is 15% more cash (or shares) beyond what you borrowed - I call that interest (and it is accounted for as interest effectively)
I am hearing rumors it may be 20% this time which I hope is not true
Edit: In the grand scheme of things it is not a huge deal - it is just a little misleading. I am fine with the offering
This post was edited on 3/17/26 at 10:45 pm
Posted on 3/17/26 at 10:43 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
The NCP (Nvidia Cloud Partner) status is not just a marketing gig, it symbolizes competent clouds that have personally been evaluated by $NVDA.
There are 83 NCPs LINK - it is a pay to play basically including all the usual suspects (Coreweave, Iren, etc). I like what Jensen said but when these guys tack on crap like this (all do it) it really does a disservice. Plenty to be excited about as opposed to making something up that is not really a big deal
Posted on 3/18/26 at 6:15 am to igoringa
$183 and $180.
Not bad. My guess was $174
The initial conversion rate for the 2031 Notes is 5.4579 of the Company’s Class A ordinary shares, par value €0.01 (“Class A shares”) per $1,000 original principal amount of Notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $183.22 per Class A share. The initial conversion price of the 2031 Notes represents a premium of approximately 57.5% over the last reported sale price of $116.33 per share of the Company’s Class A Shares on Nasdaq on March 17, 2026. The initial conversion rate for the 2033 Notes is 5.5460 Class A shares per $1,000 original principal amount of Notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $180.31 per Class A share. The initial conversion price of the 2033 Notes represents a premium of approximately 55.0% over the last reported sale price of $116.33 per share of the Company’s Class A Shares on Nasdaq on March 17, 2026.
Not bad. My guess was $174
The initial conversion rate for the 2031 Notes is 5.4579 of the Company’s Class A ordinary shares, par value €0.01 (“Class A shares”) per $1,000 original principal amount of Notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $183.22 per Class A share. The initial conversion price of the 2031 Notes represents a premium of approximately 57.5% over the last reported sale price of $116.33 per share of the Company’s Class A Shares on Nasdaq on March 17, 2026. The initial conversion rate for the 2033 Notes is 5.5460 Class A shares per $1,000 original principal amount of Notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $180.31 per Class A share. The initial conversion price of the 2033 Notes represents a premium of approximately 55.0% over the last reported sale price of $116.33 per share of the Company’s Class A Shares on Nasdaq on March 17, 2026.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 6:19 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 3/18/26 at 6:44 am to bayoubengals88
120% accretion rate, or 20% extra as igoringa stated earlier.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 7:51 am to bayoubengals88
Does this temper expectations of the recent $296 outlier PT? Or is this completely irrelevant to and independent of the higher PTs? IOW can you infer anything about where each side is betting where this is trading in 2030?
Explain this to me like i work in healthcare and not finance
Explain this to me like i work in healthcare and not finance
Posted on 3/18/26 at 7:53 am to bayoubengals88
As I said, it is sort of annoying that they do that but in the grand scheme of things it is not material to the overall EV if this goes as planned.
The 57.5% premium is great.
Get this - my shares in my IRA just got loaned out.
The 57.5% premium is great.
Get this - my shares in my IRA just got loaned out.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 8:13 am to LChama
quote:Not at all. Banks are gonna get there's. It's the price that Nebius "pays" for getting sub 2% interest rates.
Does this temper expectations of the recent $296 outlier PT?
quote:Banks are expecting to cash in BIG.
can you infer anything about where each side is betting where this is trading in 2030?
You can only do what you can do...
Meaning, look at the first convertible in June of 2025.
We thought it was amazing that they were priced in the $50s when share price was in the $30s.
It's just the nature of a rapidly growing business.
Next time the stock could be $180 and the convertibles priced at $250 - $270. The need for capital isn't going away any time soon. All of my basic estimates factor in significant dilution.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 9:12 am to bayoubengals88
nice red to green action to start the day
Posted on 3/18/26 at 9:13 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
It's just the nature of a rapidly growing business. Next time the stock could be $180 and the convertibles priced at $250 - $270. The need for capital isn't going away any time soon. All of my basic estimates factor in significant dilution.
Thanks as usual 88.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 9:21 am to LChama
quote:I wrote this on 2/25:
Is this a long term hold for you, like years/decades, or do you have a particular target set where you will pull out?
I'd like to see $800/share.
But it wouldn't suprise me at all to see 500bn market cap in 5-6 years.
That's about $1,200/share even with 40% dilution.
Seriously. How do you get to 30bn revenue with 40% margins and not see an enormous re rating?
Even with 25% margins that translates to net income of 7.5bn
At 40 P/E your'e looking at 300bn market cap, or $712 with 40% dilution.
And all of that is very reasonable if not too conservative, nor does it mention Avride, Clickhouse, Toloka, Tavily, or TripleTen.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 10:35 am to bayoubengals88
she wants $120. just do it already
Posted on 3/18/26 at 10:48 am to DawgCountry
Don't you mean $130 
Posted on 3/18/26 at 11:26 am to bayoubengals88
quote:That would have been a painful hold, but looks like it would have printed right about now!
In years past I would have gone all in on 3/20 $120 calls right about now, which is why I'm broke.
Bought 83 shares of NBIL at 13.15 instead.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 12:05 pm to bayoubengals88
First time dabbling on short dated options. Flipped 1 3/20 $120 for a quick 32%
Posted on 3/18/26 at 12:57 pm to DawgCountry
It's fun and easy until it's shitty and expensive
Posted on 3/18/26 at 1:25 pm to RJSambola
In hindsight, my rules would have been something like this:
- Don't go more than 50% of port in options
- Don't hold anything less than 3-6 months out overnight, and have an exit plan to the downside.
- Day trade shorter dated stuff on good set ups, which means I probably would have taken a loss yesterday on 3/20s, but that's the game.
On the day trades, target 20-30% gains, cut losses at 10%, which means entry is extremely important.
If you think it's dropped enough, wait longer.
If you miss out on a trade, you miss out on a trade.
- Don't go more than 50% of port in options
- Don't hold anything less than 3-6 months out overnight, and have an exit plan to the downside.
- Day trade shorter dated stuff on good set ups, which means I probably would have taken a loss yesterday on 3/20s, but that's the game.
On the day trades, target 20-30% gains, cut losses at 10%, which means entry is extremely important.
If you think it's dropped enough, wait longer.
If you miss out on a trade, you miss out on a trade.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 1:30 pm to RJSambola
quote:
It's fun and easy until it's shitty and expensive
Yes.
I saw my account go up by 40% in a little over a month and then back down by 40% during black October.
Posted on 3/18/26 at 1:33 pm to bayoubengals88
yeah, the three 2120s was a hard hold - I folded this morning with a 20% game as the stock approached 120. Left a lot of meat on the bone, but got nervous.
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