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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 10/17/25 at 11:26 am to JetsetNuggs
Posted on 10/17/25 at 11:26 am to JetsetNuggs
NBIS is still up 21% on the month. I guess we are too used to 2-5% gains per day lol.
1
Posted on 10/17/25 at 11:34 am to Mockingbird2008
95$ buy pre earnings incoming.
I’m ready
I’m ready
Posted on 10/17/25 at 11:36 am to SpeedyNacho
quote:I will have so much disdain for this post if that happens
95$ buy pre earnings incoming.
I’m ready
Posted on 10/17/25 at 11:39 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 10/17/25 at 11:39 am to bayoubengals88
I just doubled up at 113. Something about pigs and hogs.
Posted on 10/17/25 at 1:10 pm to TheDrunkenTigah
Had to get off the ship with the family for a little…Cozumel is shitty. Rather hang with my NBIS thread brothas than this shite island.
LFG NBIS!!!! Back to $116 by close
LFG NBIS!!!! Back to $116 by close
Posted on 10/17/25 at 1:15 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
LFG NBIS!!!! Back to $116 by close
I was about to say that a candle or two up to $115 would make me feel much better. I'd love to think that this is being manipulated for a shakeout prior to earnings. Even CIFR has recovered today!
Posted on 10/17/25 at 1:19 pm to bayoubengals88
Look at this shite!
Posted on 10/17/25 at 1:22 pm to bayoubengals88
Wish i had more ammo to load up more shares
Posted on 10/17/25 at 1:35 pm to jevins_slickin
The $114 suppression has been real. I've got to wonder if this is options related with 10/17s expiring today. I really hope we can forget about this day by next week.
Posted on 10/17/25 at 1:47 pm to bayoubengals88
Bayou,
This is inexplicable today with NBIS compared to the peers. Yes yesterday IREN and CIFR were down much more - but they end up being flat for the week (which is remarkable).
No idea why NBIS being so disproportionately punished - it is clearly to me the least risky of the non Coreweve plays (note: I honestly know nothing on Coreweave - never put time in given its IPO flight)
This is inexplicable today with NBIS compared to the peers. Yes yesterday IREN and CIFR were down much more - but they end up being flat for the week (which is remarkable).
No idea why NBIS being so disproportionately punished - it is clearly to me the least risky of the non Coreweve plays (note: I honestly know nothing on Coreweave - never put time in given its IPO flight)
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:01 pm to igoringa
It's good to hear you say that.
Key Insights and Risks
CoreWeave's High-Risk, High-Growth Model:
Debt has enabled 420% YoY revenue growth (Q1 2025: $982M) and a $72B market cap, but it's a "time bomb" per critics—$500M+ quarterly repayments from late 2025 could force refinancing or dilution if AI demand softens.Secured against Nvidia GPUs and contracts, but dependency on two clients (60% revenue) amplifies vulnerability.
Nebius's Balanced Expansion:
Post-Yandex restructuring, Nebius started near debt-free ($0 long-term in 2024) and uses convertibles for flexibility, targeting 220MW capacity by year-end with 1GW secured for 2026. Cash exceeds debt, supporting profitability push (ARR $4-5M/MW vs. CoreWeave's $2.6M/MW), but slower scale risks market share loss.
Overall Comparison
CoreWeave's debt is ~12x Nebius's, with leverage ratios signaling distress potential in a downturn.
Nebius offers stability for conservative investors, while CoreWeave suits high-risk bets on AI hype.
Both benefit from Nvidia ties and hyperscaler deals, but monitor Q4 earnings for repayment execution.
Key Insights and Risks
CoreWeave's High-Risk, High-Growth Model:
Debt has enabled 420% YoY revenue growth (Q1 2025: $982M) and a $72B market cap, but it's a "time bomb" per critics—$500M+ quarterly repayments from late 2025 could force refinancing or dilution if AI demand softens.Secured against Nvidia GPUs and contracts, but dependency on two clients (60% revenue) amplifies vulnerability.
Nebius's Balanced Expansion:
Post-Yandex restructuring, Nebius started near debt-free ($0 long-term in 2024) and uses convertibles for flexibility, targeting 220MW capacity by year-end with 1GW secured for 2026. Cash exceeds debt, supporting profitability push (ARR $4-5M/MW vs. CoreWeave's $2.6M/MW), but slower scale risks market share loss.
Overall Comparison
CoreWeave's debt is ~12x Nebius's, with leverage ratios signaling distress potential in a downturn.
Nebius offers stability for conservative investors, while CoreWeave suits high-risk bets on AI hype.
Both benefit from Nvidia ties and hyperscaler deals, but monitor Q4 earnings for repayment execution.
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:12 pm to bayoubengals88
And I do concur with what you said earlier - I think there is some market making pressure to make sure the $115s today do not print. But that could be just me being bias
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:15 pm to igoringa
Feel like we will earnings date announcement sometime next Tuesday/Wednesday. I think just that alone will send it up. I just moved more back into 10/31 on the dip. Hoping for an earnings of 10/30
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:18 pm to IT_Dawg
quote:
Feel like we will earnings date announcement sometime next Tuesday/Wednesday. I think just that alone will send it up. I just moved more back into 10/31 on the dip. Hoping for an earnings of 10/30
I agree but am too chicken to roll with 10/31. I have a bunch of 11/21 140s and 150s that have been taken to the woodshet these past few days and I am going to ride with those. I hope it is Tue/Wed for you!
This post was edited on 10/17/25 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:26 pm to IT_Dawg
Well, I'm ready for another Hyperscaler deal...
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:28 pm to bayoubengals88
She’s crawling back hard! We’ll see what the weekend holds and how Monday looks. Managed to get of the week with only minor scars.
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:35 pm to SquatchDawg
Aside from this little hiccup it’s sure been a good couple months.
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:48 pm to tigerfoot
might come down to the 96-100 area for a bounce.
good news will send it back up
ok news keeps it around there for a while
bad news going to $80
good news will send it back up
ok news keeps it around there for a while
bad news going to $80
Posted on 10/17/25 at 2:54 pm to donRANDOMnumbers
The Microsoft news is all it needs to justify its current price if not more. If it goes under 100 I’m throwing 100k at this stock.
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