re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

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Calls on nbis or buy clickhouse

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Why not both?.GIF

PER GROK



ClickHouse hasn't filed for its IPO yet (no S-1 yet, so no official pricing range), but based on its blistering growth—4x ARR YoY to an estimated $200M+ in 2025, 2,000+ customers including OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Tesla—and comps to Snowflake ($SNOW, which IPO'd at ~$120/share in 2020 implying a $33B valuation before popping 100%+ on debut), analysts and investors are projecting a strong debut in mid-2026. Here's the breakdown:

Estimated IPO Price
- **Valuation Range**: $30-40B fully diluted at IPO. This is a 5-6x jump from its current $6.35B post-money valuation after the May 2025 Series C extension ($350M raised). Why? It's capturing share in the $100B+ real-time analytics/observability/AI data stack, with usage-based revenue exploding amid AI demand. Pre-IPO shares trade at $75-76 on secondaries today, but public pricing would reflect growth and market hype.

- **Per-Share Price**: No public share count disclosed (private company), but assuming ~250M fully diluted shares (based on funding history and comps), that pencils to **$120-160 per share** at the $30-40B valuation. This is illustrative—actual pricing depends on the S-1 filing, roadshow demand, and market conditions. Expect a $100-140 range marketed, with potential to price at the high end or above if sentiment stays hot (e.g., like $SNOW's 2020 debut).

Post-IPO pop? Could easily +50-100% on day one if AI infra stays frothy, pushing shares to $180-320 quickly.

### Impact on NBIS Share Price
Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) owns ~28% of ClickHouse (post-dilution from the recent round), currently valued at ~$1.8B. An IPO at $30-40B would crystallize that stake at **$8.4-11.2B**—a $6.6-9.4B unlock for NBIS. This is non-dilutive capital they can hold, sell gradually, or use to fund AI data center expansion (e.g., their Microsoft deal).

- **Short-Term Boost**: Expect **20-40% upside** to NBIS shares ($122 today, implying $146-170) on IPO announcement/filing alone, as it re-rates the "hidden" asset (already ~30% of NBIS's $29B market cap). We've seen previews: NBIS surged 17% in May 2025 on ClickHouse funding news and 30% in talks of a valuation triple. Broader AI infra rotation (e.g., to $CRWV, $IREN) could amplify.

- **Longer-Term**: If NBIS retains the stake post-IPO (as CEO Arkady Volozh has hinted, calling it a "strategic lever" for billions in liquidity), it adds a massive balance sheet kicker. Combined with NBIS's core AI cloud (projected $750M-1B ARR in 2025, scaling to $3.5B+ via Microsoft) and other assets (Toloka, Avride), total EV could hit $50-60B, implying **$200-240/share** (65-100% from here). Downside risk: If markets cool or ClickHouse execution slips (e.g., competition from $SNOW/$DDOG), the pop could fizzle to 10-20%.

This is all forward-looking—IPOs can flop (see Reddit's 2024 debut). NBIS trades at ~10x projected 2025 ARR (cheap vs. CoreWeave's 20x+), so the asymmetry is bullish. If you're eyeing entry, watch for ClickHouse's S-1 in Q1 2026.

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AuBeerStud

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Clickhouse talk could be your small miracle. Watch closely if you can to get all the value that you can out of those two calls when you go to sell.

You’re going to make me buy more shares aren’t you?

Hold on tight to your LEAPS folks. I currently don't have any, but I'm thinking of converting some shares to LEAPS pre earnings.

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Clickhouse talk could be your small miracle.

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Operative word is "could". The real boost should be after the IPO is officially announced. Not sure if this will get enough PR to make a difference.

As you said, watch those calls and don't get greedy. At this point, the idea may be to not lose too much. The good news is that it looks like there will be an opportunity to make money after the earnings call. I'm sure Clickhouse will be mentioned...

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I might have missed it, but did we get an official date on earnings?

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Nope. Nebius isn’t very consistent when announcing the date either. Sometimes it’s a month out, other times 2 weeks and even 8 days before

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Operative word is "could".

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Right. I'm just looking for any kind of pop above $125 again so he can get a few more bucks out of them.

I have 2 10/17 and 1 10/31 calls I bought before the drop that I need to unload hopefully by tomorrow. Not looking good this morning.

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Clickhouse talk could be your small miracle. Watch closely if you can to get all the value that you can out of those two calls when you go to sell.

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I sold at around $124.60. So I lost $20 on that call. I think I nailed it!