re: MSFT, AMZN, GOOG

I asked Grok what it it had to invest $100k in the stocks on the chart on page 2.

For a $100,000 balanced portfolio using only stocks from your table, I’d spread it across 6-7 names. This gives decent diversification within the semiconductor/AI/tech sector while balancing:
• Growth (high EPS CAGR, strong trends)
• Value (lower PEG, reasonable P/E)
• Stability (bigger, more established companies less likely to swing wildly)
• Different roles in the chip ecosystem (designers, makers, equipment, memory, etc.)
All-in on one sector is still risky — semis are tied to AI, data centers, and economic cycles — but this mix reduces betting on just one winner. Here’s a simple, balanced split (roughly equal weights, adjustable for rounding):
Recommended Allocation (~$100k total)
• Nvidia (NVDA): ~$15,000 (15%) — AI leader
• Broadcom (AVGO): ~$15,000 (15%) — Networking & custom AI chips
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): ~$15,000 (15%) — The foundry everyone uses
• Micron (MU): ~$15,000 (15%) — Memory chips for AI
• AMD: ~$12,000 (12%) — GPU/CPU competitor
• ASML or Lam Research (LRCX): ~$12,000 (12%) — Chip-making equipment
• Applied Materials (AMAT) or Qualcomm (QCOM): ~$16,000 (16%) — More equipment + mobile/diversification
Total: 100%. You could buy in one go or dollar-cost average (buy a bit each month) to reduce timing risk.
Why this mix? (High-school explanation)
Think of the chip world like building a smartphone or AI supercomputer:
• Nvidia & Broadcom: The star players right now. They make the powerful “brains” and connections for AI. Strong growth in your table (65% and 68% CAGR), low PEGs (0.32x and 0.35x) — good growth for the price. tickeron.com
• TSM: The factory that actually builds the chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, etc. More stable “picks and shovels” play with solid 36% growth and cheap valuation (23x P/E, 0.64x PEG). Less hype, more backbone. youtube.com
• Micron: Memory (RAM) specialist. AI needs tons of it. Super cheap on the table (10x P/E, 0.24x PEG) and analysts have been raising forecasts massively (+500%). Recent market strength backs this up. nerdwallet.com
• AMD: The challenger to Nvidia. High growth (77%) at a decent PEG. Adds competition exposure.
• ASML / Lam / Applied Materials: These make the machines/tools to manufacture advanced chips. More “steady” industrial plays with positive trends and lower crazy valuations than pure designers. They benefit whenever anyone builds more chips. wtop.com
This avoids super-speculative ones like Astera Labs, AAOI, Lumentum, or Sandisk (huge % swings possible) and sky-high PEGs like Arm or Intel.
Simple Rules for Balance
• Not all eggs in one basket: Mix of leaders + enablers.
• Growth + Value: Low PEG overall (many under 1x = growth cheaper than it looks).
• Risk management: Bigger companies (Nvidia, TSM, Broadcom) for stability; smaller allocations if you want more defense.
• Why not others? Oracle/Qualcomm/HPE are slower growth. High-PEG ones (Arm, Cadence) assume perfect execution.

Goog!

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Damn Billy, it sounds like you’ll be able to retire in a few years.

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Yeah

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But Im happy with Jeff. Hope it continues to grow.

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Jeff stepped down in 21. Jassy at least has grown AWS, but he is tarnishing any reputation that Amazon had left as a an e commerce company. They are basically temu now

Lost 450B in market cap 2nd largest one day drop ever. Buying opportunity

Well, looks like I’m going to wait a few weeks or a month before checking on things again.

Not every dip is a bubble popping. I think that term is overused.

There are market adjustments all the time. Sentiment in the AI sector changes on a dime.

We will know when the bubble pops. There will be bankruptcies and consolidations when the AI bubble pops. The hyperscalers will cut back their investments.

We are really in the early stages of AI. We are still develping the AI models. We're only beginning to use them.

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I'm holding my Alphabet for the long term but I'm more interested in the collateral consequences of this on other stocks.

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I think the pressure will primarily be (or should be) on the hyperscalers for the time being. They’re the ones footing the bill.

I’ll be way more interested when they slow down the share printing.

Google down 12 % this morning.