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re: MSFT, AMZN, GOOG
Posted on 6/3/26 at 10:04 am to Boomer Rick
Posted on 6/3/26 at 10:04 am to Boomer Rick
That was in February. What was their decline compared to everybody who took hits due to AI-related capex? How did they rebound?
Gemini taking huge steps forward and possibly being the leader (or #2 behind Claude) showed the capex wasn't fruitless. Remember how far back Gemini was when Google started? How people left it for dead compared to ChatGPT? The script has flippped.
Gemini taking huge steps forward and possibly being the leader (or #2 behind Claude) showed the capex wasn't fruitless. Remember how far back Gemini was when Google started? How people left it for dead compared to ChatGPT? The script has flippped.
1
Posted on 6/3/26 at 10:20 am to SlowFlowPro
Nobody said Google is a bad company — I own a significant position. The point is simple: Broadcom, Marvell, Micron and the AI buildout beneficiaries have dramatically outperformed the companies doing the spending. That’s capital rotation, not opinion.
Google dropped 6% on its capex announcement in February despite strong earnings, then dropped again this week on its $80B equity raise. Two clear instances of the market punishing capex spending this year alone. Painfully obvious.
Google dropped 6% on its capex announcement in February despite strong earnings, then dropped again this week on its $80B equity raise. Two clear instances of the market punishing capex spending this year alone. Painfully obvious.
Posted on 6/3/26 at 11:43 am to Boomer Rick
quote:I'm not saying you're wrong, but it just seems like an overstatement. What P/E do you think the stock should trade to? How much higher than $5T should it be worth?
On February 5, 2026, Alphabet shares dropped 6.1% to $312.64 after announcing capital expenditure guidance of $175-185 billion for the year — far exceeding analyst expectations of roughly $115 billion. This happened despite strong Q4 earnings.
Just this week — Monday June 1 — Alphabet announced an $80 billion equity offering to fund AI infrastructure, and shares declined again on dilution concerns despite Berkshire Hathaway participating with a $10 billion investment.
So, yes, two clear examples this year that they’ve been punished. End of story.
Posted on 6/3/26 at 12:01 pm to Big Scrub TX
Ok, so what word would you like me to use? Discounting? JFC
Posted on 6/3/26 at 12:29 pm to Boomer Rick
quote:Not sure. Being long GOOG has been a massive winner. Not sure why we have to come up with a negative spin in the first place.
Ok, so what word would you like me to use? Discounting? JFC
Posted on 6/3/26 at 1:02 pm to Big Scrub TX
What are you talking about? I love alphabet but the market is presently punishing/discounting them for their cap spend and capital has flowed elsewhere. That’s an observation.
Their quarterly CC was the best I’ve heard in 2026.
Personally, I think they will execute and be a 10 trillion market cap company someday (possibly in 5 years).
Their quarterly CC was the best I’ve heard in 2026.
Personally, I think they will execute and be a 10 trillion market cap company someday (possibly in 5 years).
Posted on 6/3/26 at 1:24 pm to Boomer Rick
quote:That would be about a 15% IRR from here if it comes true. Had they not already been "punished", what lower IRR would you find more appropriate from a higher value?
Personally, I think they will execute and be a 10 trillion market cap company someday (possibly in 5 years).
Your argument seems to be that executing on some of the biggest capex of all time in possibly the most transformative space of all time should result in lower than a 15% IRR.
Posted on 6/3/26 at 1:32 pm to Big Scrub TX
My original point was simple — the market is currently discounting Google relative to AI capex beneficiaries like Marvell, Broadcom, and Micron. That’s an observable fact, not a negative take on Google. I own a significant position, their last earnings call was the best I’ve heard all year, and I think the capex pays off long term. A 15% IRR to $10 trillion sounds pretty good to me. Not sure what we’re even disagreeing about at this point.
Posted on 6/3/26 at 2:44 pm to Sabans straw hat
If you're looking for upside/growth, go with companies involved with the AI infrastructure: NVTS, SNDK, ASML, MU, ALAB, VRT, TSM, NVDA.
Posted on 6/3/26 at 4:30 pm to how333
quote:
If you're looking for upside/growth, go with companies involved with the AI infrastructure: NVTS, SNDK, ASML, MU, ALAB, VRT, TSM, NVDA.
I got 3 of those
Posted on 6/3/26 at 11:57 pm to Double Oh
I added google, amazon, and netflix today.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 5:39 pm to Billy Blanks
After today, anyone care to opine on which of these is the best buy?
Posted on 6/17/26 at 6:07 pm to Ham And Glass
Depends on what you’re looking for…
AI:
Goog offers strong value with continued search dominance and rapid AI overview adoption, though massive 2026 capital expenditure targets pressuring free cash flow jitter investors.
Amzn represents a sharply discounted dip-buy opportunity following recent stock sells. However, expensive infrastructure spending on Project Kuiper and a fresh FTC advertising disclosure investigation pose real margin headwinds despite AWS moats.
Msft emerges as a highly compelling conservative play. Although recent execution hurdles and an Oracle capacity lease cancellation dropped shares today, its compressed multiple makes it an incredibly attractive long-term investment given enterprise SaaS dominance.
For long-term balance, Msft leads on safety and value. For growth acceleration, Goog remains the search powerhouse. Amzn offers high-risk dip potential.
AI:
Goog offers strong value with continued search dominance and rapid AI overview adoption, though massive 2026 capital expenditure targets pressuring free cash flow jitter investors.
Amzn represents a sharply discounted dip-buy opportunity following recent stock sells. However, expensive infrastructure spending on Project Kuiper and a fresh FTC advertising disclosure investigation pose real margin headwinds despite AWS moats.
Msft emerges as a highly compelling conservative play. Although recent execution hurdles and an Oracle capacity lease cancellation dropped shares today, its compressed multiple makes it an incredibly attractive long-term investment given enterprise SaaS dominance.
For long-term balance, Msft leads on safety and value. For growth acceleration, Goog remains the search powerhouse. Amzn offers high-risk dip potential.
Posted on 6/17/26 at 10:23 pm to Sabans straw hat
Each can give SpaceX $5bil. SpaceX stock price will immediately pop 30%+.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 6:13 am to Sabans straw hat
Regardless of other factors, these are all very well run companies with highly attractive and valuable asset portfolios.
There is a chance one of them could stumble or fumble (particularly in the AI space), but these three all have high upside despite their already high market capitalizations.
AMZN (on my watchlist) has a P/E ratio of 28 - while not cheap, for a company with this much juice, it is not expensive from a raw value standpoint. Plus, it functions for AI and web infrastructure, generally, the way V does for retail with its industry-dominant AWS. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
GOOG's P/E is even lower, slightly. The company controls so much data and so much flow and so forth. Again, not cheap, but certainly not all out of proportion doing simple stock analysis.
MSFT I think is the weakest of the three, but it isn't by much. And the P/E there is about 22, making it almost a buy just on earnings. There are still a lot of things the company does right, from a management standpoint. It is still a well-run company with attractive assets, recurring business, inroads into AI and future tech.
I like AMZN of the three, but it is the most "overpriced" of the three as we sit here. I think it is the broadest of the three companies and essentially bulletproof going into this "post-AI" bubble economy.
There is a chance one of them could stumble or fumble (particularly in the AI space), but these three all have high upside despite their already high market capitalizations.
AMZN (on my watchlist) has a P/E ratio of 28 - while not cheap, for a company with this much juice, it is not expensive from a raw value standpoint. Plus, it functions for AI and web infrastructure, generally, the way V does for retail with its industry-dominant AWS. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
GOOG's P/E is even lower, slightly. The company controls so much data and so much flow and so forth. Again, not cheap, but certainly not all out of proportion doing simple stock analysis.
MSFT I think is the weakest of the three, but it isn't by much. And the P/E there is about 22, making it almost a buy just on earnings. There are still a lot of things the company does right, from a management standpoint. It is still a well-run company with attractive assets, recurring business, inroads into AI and future tech.
I like AMZN of the three, but it is the most "overpriced" of the three as we sit here. I think it is the broadest of the three companies and essentially bulletproof going into this "post-AI" bubble economy.
This post was edited on 6/18/26 at 6:15 am
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:09 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
like AMZN of the three, but it is the most "overpriced" of the three as we sit here. I think it is the broadest of the three companies and essentially bulletproof going into this "post-AI" bubble economy.
Good write up, but if you really believe that there will be a “post-AI” then we’re looking at a 50% overall market crash IMO. 2008 was -38% for the S&P.
Google would be trading below $100, NVDA would be below $50. The impacts would be, dare I say, unprecedented.
There is NO OTHER place to invest right now. If AI goes so goes the global economy.
I’m betting on sovereign governments, GOOG, NVDA, META, AMZN, etc. to keep the stimulus going.
Because the alternative is too bleak.
From the AI buildout, we will grow robotics, quantum, and the space economy. That’s why I’m in NBIS, OUST, and QNT.
That’s my entire investment thesis.
Posted on 6/18/26 at 7:47 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Good write up, but if you really believe that there will be a “post-AI” then we’re looking at a 50% overall market crash IMO. 2008 was -38% for the S&P.
I didn't necessarily suggest that. I'm saying that there is at least the perception of a bubble. So, it will either burst or become a new plateau. Either way the bubble will be gone.
Maybe I should have said post-"AI bubble" to be more clear?
Posted on 6/18/26 at 8:44 am to bayoubengals88
Why QNT over IONQ?
Posted on 6/18/26 at 12:17 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:What bubble?
Maybe I should have said post-"AI bubble" to be more clear?
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 6/18/26 at 12:18 pm to Neauxla
quote:I'm not smart enough to choose it for the technology. I'm not sure anyone is. So I chose the one with Honeywell's support and the one that has 1.68bn in fresh capital.
Why QNT over IONQ?
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