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Message
January Jobs numbers - WTF?
Posted on 2/2/24 at 7:40 am
Posted on 2/2/24 at 7:40 am
Listening to the numbers on TV as I get ready for work, so no link yet.
Labor market is accelerating or else the numbers are insanely off.
Jobs +353k, expectation was 176k (December was revised UP by 126k to total 330k)
YoY average hourly earnings up 4.5%
MoM average hourly earnings up .6%
Labor Force Participation stays the same at 62.5%
Nonfarm payroll hours dropped to 34.1, manufacturing hours dropped to 39.5 and OT dropped to 2.6
Unemployment stays at 3.7%
The 2-yr is up 12bp (after doing a few edits over the last few minutes, this is up to 15 points), the 10-yr is up 9.
March is off the table, eyes are now looking at June for the next possible rate cut.
Labor market is accelerating or else the numbers are insanely off.
Jobs +353k, expectation was 176k (December was revised UP by 126k to total 330k)
YoY average hourly earnings up 4.5%
MoM average hourly earnings up .6%
Labor Force Participation stays the same at 62.5%
Nonfarm payroll hours dropped to 34.1, manufacturing hours dropped to 39.5 and OT dropped to 2.6
Unemployment stays at 3.7%
The 2-yr is up 12bp (after doing a few edits over the last few minutes, this is up to 15 points), the 10-yr is up 9.
March is off the table, eyes are now looking at June for the next possible rate cut.
This post was edited on 2/2/24 at 8:00 am
9
Posted on 2/2/24 at 7:47 am to Bard
quote:
else the numbers are insanely off.
This is the answer. They did the same thing last Jan when they claimed there was 800k jobs created
Posted on 2/2/24 at 7:50 am to SDVTiger
What’s the problem? I thought yall would be happy about this as it ensures no rate cuts and will stifle the stock market from making more gains.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 7:50 am to SDVTiger
quote:
This is the answer. They did the same thing last Jan when they claimed there was 800k jobs created
There really needs to be some firings and replacements over the levels of swing we are seeing.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 7:53 am to Bard
The government lies to us every day. I don’t know why we think they wouldn’t do the same with employment or inflation metrics.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:03 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
The government lies to us every day. I don’t know why we think they wouldn’t do the same with employment or inflation metrics
I find it curious that the majority of states have unemployment on the rise. There are a select few holding the line. But big states like California and New York are reporting increased unemployment rates. How are the majority of states reporting higher unemployment rates yet the federal government is staying the same?
Something is odd.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:29 am to Bard
Don't forget this doozy of a headline:
Labor Department: The total nonfarm employment level for March 2023 was revised downward by 266,000, seasonally adjusted.
Everything is done by computers, but it took 10 months to revise this...
Labor Department: The total nonfarm employment level for March 2023 was revised downward by 266,000, seasonally adjusted.
Everything is done by computers, but it took 10 months to revise this...
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:33 am to notiger1997
quote:
What’s the problem?
Whats the problem with them lying about the jobs numbers?
I mean are you serious?
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:36 am to Bard
It’s all bullshite
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:55 am to Bard
Vaguely remember an analyst being on CNBC or one of the finance shows the other day stating that 800k jobs in 2023 that were added were second jobs for people struggling to pay for the basics these days.
Any insight?
Any insight?
Posted on 2/2/24 at 8:58 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
The government lies to us every day. I don’t know why we think they wouldn’t do the same with employment or inflation metrics.
It's refreshing that this is now a mainstream view and not just in my little conspiracy theory corner of the internet.
Although, that means very little for real change in our country. I've already seen how my American brothers will lay down and a hide (Covid) as soon as the government tells them to. We are weak.
Not trying to get political on money talk but was happy to see this comment and so many upvotes.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:34 am to Bard
quote:
January Jobs numbers - WTF?
The jobs numbers are derived from surveys. If nobody responds to the surveys, they index the rest of unresponsive businesses to the responsive outcomes. Looks like the birth-date rate model is now not contributing to the job creation anymore (responsible for 40% in 2023).
Posted on 2/2/24 at 3:06 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
he jobs numbers are derived from surveys. If nobody responds to the surveys, they index the rest of unresponsive businesses to the responsive outcomes. Looks like the birth-date rate model is now not contributing to the job creation anymore (responsible for 40% in 2023).
I have to use the BLS numbers for work and I’m amazed at how good of a job those baws do over there. Yes the initial numbers every month are labeled preliminary and are later corrected. It’s the cost of getting quick data rather than having serious lag time that leaves no opportunity to make the data actionable. The idea that the data geeks at the BLS who work there for decades in some cases are motivated by whomever is in office is absurd.
Some people got to stop labeling anything they don’t like as fictitious.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 3:22 pm to Bard
quote:We should dredge up the copious posts (I don't think from you) about "just wait for it to be revised down".
(December was revised UP by 126k to total 330k)
Posted on 2/2/24 at 3:39 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
They did the same thing last Jan when they claimed there was 800k jobs created
Maybe - indulge me for a second - just maybe not everything is political? Is that possible?
Posted on 2/2/24 at 5:40 pm to Bard
Since Biden took office in January 2021, BLS jobs data for nonfarm payrolls show 14.784 million jobs added. ADP has private payrolls with 12.51 million jobs added. Thats a gap of 2.274 million jobs between ADP and BLS. However, BLS has 1.3 million government jobs added over that timeframe, leaving a shortfall of less than a million jobs.
So yeah, the government numbers are probably “optimistic”, but a private company who’s job is payroll isn’t too far off either.
So yeah, the government numbers are probably “optimistic”, but a private company who’s job is payroll isn’t too far off either.
This post was edited on 2/2/24 at 5:43 pm
Posted on 2/2/24 at 5:43 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Vaguely remember an analyst being on CNBC or one of the finance shows the other day stating that 800k jobs in 2023 that were added were second jobs for people struggling to pay for the basics these days. Any insight?
Remember how hot the economy was in January 2020 with Trump and before Covid? Sure, we all do…
Well there are currently .9% more multiple job holders today than there were in January 2020. Furthermore, there are actually 1.9% fewer multiple job holders as a percentage of those employed today than there was in January 2020.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 6:08 pm to Motownsix
I hope you don't think I think the data is made up. It's modeled and their models are bias in both directions on job creation when the business cycle turns. They just happen to coincide with Democrat administrations the past two downturns where the job creation has an upward bias from the birth-death model. Obama experienced it in both directions. It's a spurious realtionship.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 6:58 pm to fjlee90
quote:
I find it curious that the majority of states have unemployment on the rise.
Plus you have the nonstop drumbeat of large companies announcing job cuts.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 7:17 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Plus you have the nonstop drumbeat of large companies announcing job cuts.
Sure, but small and midsize business create far more jobs. ADP was up over 100,000 net in January.
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