re: Is there going to be another retraction in oil prices?

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I feel fairly confident in stating that as Iran's production comes back into the daylight we will see Iraq's "record" production come back down.

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Respectfully, I disagree. Although it is possible that some of their production is due to Iranian oil, I think the facts point elsewhere.

Iraq had auctioned off many fields in 2009-2013 to outside oil companies.* Since production projects typically take months or years to get online, this could explain why Iraqi oil production has increased since that time. Iraq, like many other OPEC countries, is dependent on oil for government revenues, and so production may have been increased to keep the budget stable once oil prices started to fall. Also, that budget has to include money to fight a war with ISIS, pushing production higher. And, like Saudi Arabia did, Iraq probably tried to lock down as many customers as possible before the Iranian sanctions were lifted (because as much as OPEC is a cartel, every member puts itself before the others).

It's also worth noting that the sanctions on Iran were not global but were mainly imposed by the US and the EU. Iran was still able to produce and sell oil, just not to the major developed countries mentioned, which hurt their revenues and caused a production decline since those customers were inaccessible. On the other hand, relations between Iraq and Iran have warmed since the end of the Saddam Hussein regime, so perhaps some of the oil Iraq sold came from Iran. This wouldn't fully explain Iraq's production increasing from 2.5 million bpd at the start of 2012 to 4.5 million bpd today, however.

*Coincidentally, Exxon and Occidental are the only US companies with contracts in Iraq. In fact, China and India buy 25% and 20% of Iraq's oil production, respectively, while the US buys 15%.. So much for the ridiculous "America went to war in Iraq for oil" argument that has been floating around for more than a decade.

Where do yall see this thing going with the upcoming OPEC meeting? Assuming that a freeze is agreed upon. I am getting pretty itchy on the trigger.

I have been holding off waiting for another steep drop however as more time passes I am loosing optimism. Hopefully the freeze will cause another tail spin because the growing surplus sure hasnt phased prices.

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I can believe they break even at $30. They are one of the most if not the most efficient E&P in deep water GOM

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It helped that LLOG - Who Dat came online right when oil was hitting record highs.

If your platform is paid off, then that is a big load off the company shoulders.

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Bankruptcies could help reign in more capex from some of the shale drillers that caused this glut.

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Companies going into and during bankruptcy have continued pumping if it's economic...there has been a slowdown domestically but at the end of the day who knows....the OPEC Russia deal won't happen because of the Iranian condition (a calculated failure). I think you'd be a fool to place any bets based on oil prices right now - too many variables and the volatility indicates a lot of wild guessing.

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I've been studying the oil markets for a while now. After doing much indepth research , I think that there is a 50% chance the price of oil falls in the coming months.

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I've been studying oil markets most of my professional life and I think there is a 50% chance the price of oil goes up in the coming months.