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Zachary
Member since Jan 2007
1370 posts

Is the majority of this board still thinking the bottom is still ahead of us?

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Im4datigers
LSU Fan
Northern Virginia
Member since Oct 2003
3785 posts

I am warming up slowly to the thought that the bottom has passed. And then I check my bank account and see that the cost of living is still as high as giraffe arse and I make damn good money. No clue how anybody making sub 6 figures makes it these days.


Huey Lewis
LSU Fan
BR
Member since Oct 2013
4359 posts

I think I speak for the majority when I say my gut says maybe.


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260
redfieldk717
LSU Fan
Alec Box
Member since Oct 2011
28053 posts

It’ll stay propped up until the elections, imo


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311
UltimaParadox
Alabama Fan
Huntsville
Member since Nov 2008
28675 posts

In the past I would say the majority of this board doesn't try to time the market. These days I'm not so sure


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Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
5703 posts

Looks like they have postponed the “bottom” for 2023.

The market loves 12 yr, 6yr and 3 yr cycles. I would say these are very dramatic, volatile years.

1929+3=1932
1975+12=1987
1987+12=1999
1999+3=2002
2002+6=2008
2008+3=2011
2008+12=2020
2020+3=2023

Amazing how this stuff works. Almost like everything is already written in the math.
This post was edited on 8/13 at 1:06 pm


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534
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
78192 posts

Unless something unforeseen happens, it feels like 6/14ish will be the bottom. We’re 2 months removed from that date and things simply aren’t as bad as feared then. Earnings have been solid and commodities are down considerably. We’re 1.5% higher on the Fed Funds Rate and there is less anxiety about the big moves. Long term rates are actually down considerably from that date.

Maybe we retest it or something, but I think buying any dips makes sense.

This post was edited on 8/13 at 1:12 pm


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
5703 posts

6 months down Jan - June

3 months UP gets ya to the next Fed meeting

6 months up gets ya to a possible double top

So, rollover in September or double top in December is my line of thinking
This post was edited on 8/13 at 1:15 pm


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SalE
LSU Fan
At the beach
Member since Jan 2020
1415 posts

Yes


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03
ItzMe1972
Member since Dec 2013
7576 posts

I have no idea.

I'm 67% in the market and 33% cash.


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123
TD SponsorTD Fan
USA
Member since 2001
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go ta hell ole miss
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Jan 2007
12615 posts

When Apple beat that was my indicator the market has bottomed and is going to continue to climb. I went from almost exclusively long crypto (exclusions being long Disney at $90.25 and NVDA at $155 and puts on AAPL)) over the last couple of months to being about 50/50 tech and crypto now. That will continue to slide heavier to tech and less in crypto once BTC reaches $30k.

I think we have seen the bottom, but I recognize this run is giving indications of running out of steam. We may not go back to recent lows, but I doubt we straight line either.


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AllDayEveryDay
Texas A&M Fan
Nawf Tejas
Member since Jun 2015
4874 posts

September is the next fed meeting for rate increase. Then mid terms in November. I think we see a small drop in September. Then a big one in December/Jan. I'm not buying much until next year.


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Bard
LSU Fan
Poli Board President-Elect
Member since Oct 2008
45437 posts

PPI, CPI and Unemployment are down and GDP didn't shrink as much in Q2 as it did in Q1 so what's not to be optimistic about?

A lot, in my view. These numbers look good, but many seem to be stopping their assessment there instead of digging into how they can be this way with continued high inflation, high fuel prices and inflation outpacing wage growth.

Prices on the shelves and at the gas pump continued to rise throughout Q2 yet Real GDP shrank less than it did in Q1? Wage growth has lagged well behind inflation so it seems to me that the fast and continued growth in inflation has masked some of GDP's retraction in Q2 as even though people are spending more money they are actually buying less product.

Being able to afford less product means the appearance of less demand due to elasticity. Even with that, prices have continued to climb.

Another aspect of this is that we've seen consumer debt rising quickly since Q1 2021 and has been trending as speeding up (with the notable exception of Q4 2021 to Q1 2022 where the rate of increase slowed) rather than slowing down. We're at historic levels of consumer debt and it's still rapidly rising.

So any benefit to GDP in Q2 exposes itself as riding on the back of consumer debt. Vehicle repos and home foreclosures are up, which seems to reflect the point of excessive consumer debt.

Unemployment beat expectations but digging into the numbers appears to show this is due to more people simply dropping out of the work force while those remaining are picking up extra jobs.

CPI is skewed downward by a couple of factors, not the least of which is that increasing home prices are blunted as BLS doesn't look at home prices but rather at OER (Owner's Equivalent Rent of residences, in other words they are looking at how much in rent they think a homeowner would be paying to rent their home).

Fuel prices are down but it's not because supply has increased, it's because demand finally dropped in the face of historically high fuel prices combined with constantly rising inflation.

Fuel prices are likely to increase as demand kicks back in due to prices dropping at the pumps, which will at least continue high CPI and PPI (don't expect CPI to be below 5% for the rest of the year). Not only that, but when getting into fuels like natural gas (~4x what it cost pre-COVID), coal (~5x where it was pre-COVID) and heating oil (~2x), those prices are still increasing (meaning electricity costs are likely to continue to increase).

The longer this continues, the longer and the more people will have to depend on debt to maintain their lifestyles. That's an untenable scenario as you can't put the consequences of ever-increasing debt off forever. Even shifting credit card debt to a 12-month no APR card is only a delaying tactic. Were inflation moving close to 0 or were we to hit deflation I could see this resolving itself, but that's far, far from reality.

All of this taken together is why I think any "bottom" we've seen is a false bottom. I think October-ish will either be the bottom or will give us a better view of how much longer til we hit it.


unclejhim
LSU Fan
Folsom, La.
Member since Nov 2011
3291 posts

Pretty much my thoughts as well. You explained much better than I could have.


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Drizzt
LSU Fan
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
9911 posts

I think this winter when gas prices quadruple in Europe you are going to see global economic issues that cause a new bottom. They are fricked unless Putin turns on the spigot.


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StringedInstruments
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2013
15421 posts
 Online 

quote:

I am warming up slowly to the thought that the bottom has passed. And then I check my bank account and see that the cost of living is still as high as giraffe arse and I make damn good money. No clue how anybody making sub 6 figures makes it these days.


I’m assuming you mean combined 6 figures?

Cause I agree. My wife and I for the first time in our marriage are truly pressed to the brim with our budget. Increases in preschool tuition, used car prices, and grocery bills have taken away all cushion. Not to mention the fact that the government suddenly believes my house is worth $125k more than when I bought it in 2020, so they want those sweet property taxes.



UpstairsComputer
LSU Fan
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2017
1204 posts

I’d add, the draining of the SPR is helping prices. Eventually that’ll have to stop and we’ll find out how much that’s been helping prices. Much worse would be if we found ourselves in a hot war with it being drained… those jets don’t fly with solar panels and windmills - and we have to refill it and subsequently increase demand by 1m barrels a days. That would take the cake for our government sucking.


makersmark1
Auburn Fan
earth
Member since Oct 2011
12698 posts

Maybe.

There are good companies to invest in now that may offer a decent return over a decade.




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notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
52900 posts

quote:

I’d add, the draining of the SPR is helping prices.


Very little.


Im4datigers
LSU Fan
Northern Virginia
Member since Oct 2003
3785 posts

quote:

I’m assuming you mean combined 6 figures?


Nope. Wife doesn’t work but I’m very blessed and do very well for a “C” student. Made more than I’ve ever made before last year and it’s insane the cost of everything. I’m in a high priced market in NOVA but it’s all relative. It’s still crazy out there.


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