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re: Is it time to short the market?
Posted on 11/14/20 at 12:32 pm to titleist71
Posted on 11/14/20 at 12:32 pm to titleist71
quote:
Increased COVID cases and hospitalizations
Biden with better chance to win the election
Cold weather coming
Only one of those points makes any sense as related to an equity trading strategy (and unless you’re a QAnon follower, one is just silly). Do you know which one *might be* somewhat relevant?
0
Posted on 11/14/20 at 12:55 pm to whitefoot
quote:
OP is obviously talking about downside protection in the short term. Or at least that's how I interpreted his post.
I certainly don't see myself ever putting money in inverse ETFs, but they do, in fact go positive when the indices they track go negative, do they not?
I won’t presume to know what he’s talking about, since his premise seems a little shaky to begin with. But if he’s truly talking about downside protection on a long equity or index position, that’s not going (net) short. That would put him at neutral. He could certainly put on options or futures contracts and establish a net short. But as Cgrand pointed out, most people have no business playing that game - especially when the reasoning is more emotion than data based.
As for inverse ETFs or ETNs, anyone who doesn’t know what contango and backwardation are and how they affect those products, should keep their cursor FAR away from the buy button. “You’ll shoot your eye out, Ralphie,”
Posted on 11/14/20 at 6:14 pm to titleist71
I bought some SPY puts at close Friday to hedge my bullish bets. Also some analysts I follow on discord had some bearish alarm bells from their various models Friday
Posted on 11/15/20 at 9:38 am to audioaxes1
hedging a long position is fine and a common strategy well used by traders of all persuasions. That is not “shorting the market”. Hedging is just buying insurance (that you hope and expect to lose money on)
notable that the OP has disappeared here, and no replies have offered any practical strategies for “shorting the market” other than buying 3x leveraged inverse short ETFs, which carry a much higher downside risk than just staying long...
notable that the OP has disappeared here, and no replies have offered any practical strategies for “shorting the market” other than buying 3x leveraged inverse short ETFs, which carry a much higher downside risk than just staying long...
Posted on 11/15/20 at 1:49 pm to cgrand
You can't be serious. If I hold 50% cash, 25% gold and 10% in Vix call options I'm net short the "market."
Posted on 11/15/20 at 1:52 pm to wutangfinancial
I was serious that nobody yet offered a sound short strategy.
now you have.
I doubt anyone here would do that though
now you have.
I doubt anyone here would do that though
Posted on 11/15/20 at 2:06 pm to cgrand
My bad lol I thought you were trying to say you can only short the market with forwards or CDS that require certain AUM. 3x inverse ETFs are hilariously embarrassing to hold long term.
Posted on 11/15/20 at 2:40 pm to wutangfinancial
Can you explain how SDOW would be a terrible investment at this time? It’s at almost a 5 yr low. If the market goes to crap in next 18 months that many predict, seems like there is a crap load of money to be made on a long term hold.
Posted on 11/15/20 at 4:26 pm to DiamondDog
Yes. When something falls 50% how much does the etf have to gain to make that back? Now do it on a daily settlement with 50% of money inflows passive.
Posted on 11/16/20 at 9:23 am to titleist71
quote:Any negative effect of COVID cases and hospitalizations will be muted from here out. There will be no national shutdown. If Biden becomes POTUS, by the time he takes office, we will be well into vaccine distribution. His beloved shutdown won't happen. However, a bloated stimulus may.
Is it time to short the market?
Increased COVID cases and hospitalizations
Biden with better chance to win the election
Cold weather coming
Current US market valuations are hard to swallow, but there is also a ton of cash sitting on the sideline to cushion pullbacks. Unless both GA Senate races crash, I'm not ready to short the market.
However, I do expect a weakening dollar along with underperformance of US relative to European/Developing Mkts.
Swinging to overweight overseas holdings, gold/cash, and focus on domestic dividend producers seem prudent to me.
Posted on 11/18/20 at 2:54 pm to titleist71
quote:
Is it time to short the market?
I went short the market earlier today. Already showing a profit but soon see if wrong
Posted on 11/18/20 at 9:25 pm to Tigers4life
Can’t tell if that is a troll or not.
Posted on 11/19/20 at 6:24 am to TheWalrus
quote:
Can’t tell if that is a troll or not.
No troll...bought 2000 shares of SPXS @ 4.52. Plan on adding more but waiting to see if we get more volume to the downside. Just see the setup and now have to wait to see if it works.
Posted on 11/24/20 at 2:35 pm to titleist71
quote:
Increased COVID cases and hospitalizations
Biden with better chance to win the election
Cold weather coming
Posted on 11/24/20 at 3:04 pm to Jag_Warrior
Posted on 11/24/20 at 3:06 pm to cgrand
I sold short a small amount of VOO earlier today, just as a play-money bet on near term volatility. But I am short an index that nearly everyone would say is representative of the overall US stock market. Am I not "short the market", at least in that small position?
I understand the "gotcha" on those inverse levered funds but not sure where there is one here. Because of the weighting in the index it isn't representative?
I understand the "gotcha" on those inverse levered funds but not sure where there is one here. Because of the weighting in the index it isn't representative?
This post was edited on 11/24/20 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 11/24/20 at 3:10 pm to titleist71
I would start shorting when 30% of population has the vaccine.
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