Is Everything "In A Bubble" Right Now?

i have more than id ever want to admit on here in bitcoin, so i hope so bro

Real estate prices are plummeting in my neck of the woods.

I've got a one time 10k investment in bitcoin. I'm up 20k. If I lose 10k initial investment know what happens to me in the long run? Nothing substantial long term. It's fun. Go into it knowing the risk and realizing if it dissolves to shite it will be ok but if it does anything what lots of people say it may do holy shite what a fun way to make a chunk of change

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Is Everything "In A Bubble" Right Now?

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Term is probably overused. We're on the long end of a bull run. The only thing you can really say is that each month that passes, is one month closer to the end. An end no one can really predict on the nose.

Bubble should probably be used in catastrophic circumstances, not regular pullbacks after bull runs.

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Societal values will change over time, but it's not gonna burst in a day. While a true stock market bubble could burst in a day.

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yeah the student loan issue is a crisis created by bad government policy. it doesn't have the same immediate deflationary concerns (aka, the "pop") that a true bubble has. this is b/c it's not an area where money has flooded by private investment to create artificial inflation to pump and dump. also the value of the product is much more intangible than tactile property (a house, car, gold, cryptos, whatever). there is no secondary market for a college degree to be sold, and universities aren't going to slash tuitions by 50% in a year. it's just it's own crisis

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And tech startups aren't a bubble IMO, there are tons that fail and you'll never hear about them, you just hear about the ones that don't fail

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i think the big boys are a huge bubble and are creating bubbles within bubbles with their over-valued acquisitions

companies have to create profits at some point, and pumping all revenue into expansions to pump up stock prices is, by definition, creating a bubble. most tech companies are doing this with their primary stock and then creating insane inflation within smaller companies that they then acquire (aka, the big boys got pumped and dumped). it's just insane now

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Nobody knows jack shite about when the next bubble will burst or even what it is going to be. And people are missing out on this bull market while waiting for the big dip that may or may not come.

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the dip has to come

people are terrible at predicting winners in markets, long term. people are just riding the positive side of variance right now, leveraged too far. when the bottom drops (and it has to at some point), they're going to be in 2008 positions all over again

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Car prices, especially truck prices, have become ridiculous and I have a strange feeling that they will have a lot of leftover new inventory in the next few years that they will have to try and get rid of.

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the market is still feeling the effects of Clash for Clunkers, one of the worst domestic policy ideas the past 30 years

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We're about 5 months out from this being the longest "economic expansion" in the history of the United States, its coming.

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I tend to agree however the recession of 2008-2012 (ish) was one of the longer on record. That's the only reason I think it lasts a little longer.

Long beer

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they flood money into sectors, create inflation, and then cut ties

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I think you've been buying too much into populist storytellers like Michael Lewis, and getting the causation completely wrong here.

There's little doubt in my mind that most asset prices are wildly overvalued at the moment (just read by Hussman-related posts on here), but it has absolutely nothing to do with the i-bankers and PE/VC crowd inflating prices or pumping and dumping. They're just doing their job as salesmen, and the real driver of inflation is near-ZIRP. The PE/VC firms thus gets tons of money raised easily, but then can't find enough deal flow to sustain their enterprise and justify them holding all that investor cash--so they bid up multiples. But they're just playing the central bankers' game of musical chairs--they dance or they have to quit and find employment in another type of career.

It's the classic financial advisors who are selling people on bullshite (i.e., that stocks are currently a good investment because of their dividend yield relative to bond yields) once again. You can hardly blame them either though. They're just doing their jobs.

Calling this an "everything bubble" is a pretty decent way to think about things, but technically (as Shiller himself points out), we're not really experiencing bubble-type phenomena, ICOs excepted. Rather, we're just experiencing overinflated asset prices everywhere because nobody knows what else is better to do, even though a whole lot of people are still worried.

Also, I've been a sharp critic of near-ZIRP since about 2011 (although I also supported it from about 2008-2010 as being temporarily necessary), but not all of this can be laid at the feet of the Fed either. Firstly, because the Fed isn't the root cause of America's macroeconomic stagnation since the mid-1960s (and more sharply since 2000). Secondly, because a lot of the asset inflation is coming from overseas. There are people out there who make a pretty good case that recent U.S. stock market appreciation is correlated to the combined asset balances of the FRB, ECB, BOJ, & PBOC (plus the BOE, SNB, etc.). So even as the Fed begins to wind down, that doesn't mean that other major central banks won't keep propping things up. The Swiss National Bank alone has about $80 billion invested in the U.S. stock market, or about $10,000 for every man, woman, and child in Switzerland. Crazy times.