re: Investing In Tesla

Just production and deliveries guidance. The earnings are going to be ugly. They’re going to have to explain some issues I think.

Elon also pumping his FSD bullshite again today.

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that will translate into a dramatic value appreciation over the next decade.

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Tesla’s current capital structure will not last them the decade they need to deploy their robo-taxi fleet. They’re experiencing a significant demand problem and piling up inventory all over the place.

Elon said he would have a million robo-taxis on the road in 2020. That is a fricking lie, no matter how great the technology is. There were several other lies thrown in there or just completely reckless and incompetent statements, but that was the most bold-face lie.

He’s said several times that FSD is closer than it actually is. No one doubts that Tesla has some great technology, but as close as they are, they’re still greater than 2 years from solving the last 2-5% of edge cases, and then you’re going to have a very lengthy regulatory process before it’s approved.

All the while, Tesla is leveraged to the hilt in a highly capital intensive business that needs to sell cars for the next decade until he can solve every single variable needed for self-driving and get regulatory approval. All the while, his cars haven’t changed stylistically in almost a decade, there is significant documented problems with build quality, and he’s still building cars in a tent.

So yes, that autonomous investor day was in fact bullshite. I’d imagine one of two things happen. He announces a capital raise or he reorganizes into Chapter 11.

your first post is mostly spot on, and the most relevant to this board. Their business model, as is, is not sustainable.

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Take for instance this morning, I drove through a construction zone where the road was tore up, cones were placed haphazardly all over the road taking it from three lanes to two to one, and water was pooling all over the road. How is a computer operated vehicle supposed to navigate that when their tech missed a off-ramp in their showcase on a sunny day in California?

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but this is pretty silly.

Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) who was at the investor field day, wrote that the car missed an off-ramp on his demo. That’s on a California freeway in presumably some pretty favorable conditions. Have they thought about those situations? Sure they have. Are they close to solving them? No, they’re not.

Why is his examples silly? I'll give you three examples that I have encountered recently. DOTD was inspecting small bridge I wanted to cross. My lane was open but worker, not holding slow /stop sign, was holding his hand up stopping me but letting oncoming traffic use my lane. How would computer know what to do? Large oncoming tractor was taking up both lanes. I had to pull onto shoulder to let him pass. Third situation was police was escorting large industrial piece of equipment. Police directed me off the road into narrow driveway where I was told to pull up enough for two other vehicles to park behind me. How would car know what / how to follow directions from police officer?

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That stance without direct technical knowledge of the situation seems like a fear of the unknown issue.

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Just because I don’t have direct knowledge doesn’t mean that I can’t see Tesla’s autonomous capabilities for what they are. They are imperfect. It is my opinion is that it will still be imperfect 24 months from now. It is almost a certainty, there will not be a Tesla robo-taxi fleet, especially not a 1mm cars in 24 months.

You clearly didn't watch the autonomy day presentation. They demonstrate that they are the only company that has a huge fleet of vehicles gathering real world data, such as construction zones or people waving their hand, and adding those patterns to the neural network that will be able to recognize these exceptional circumstances and act appropriately.