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I’m not saying we’re screwed, but I’m starting to wonder

Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:45 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:45 pm
Posted by Tshiz
Idaho
Member since Jul 2013
7569 posts
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:53 pm to
Explain to me like I’m 5
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:59 pm to
Federal reserve pulled too much money out of the economy too quickly = historically speaking we are fricked
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
48942 posts
Posted on 3/13/23 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

Explain to me like I’m 5


Jack and Jill went up a hill

Jill kicked Jack in the nuts
Posted by whiskey over ice
Member since Sep 2020
3257 posts
Posted on 3/13/23 at 9:42 pm to
quote:

Federal reserve pulled too much money out of the economy too quickly = historically speaking we are fricked


can't they just like, put it back?
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 3/13/23 at 9:50 pm to
Sure in theory. Doesn’t mean they will and doesn’t mean it won’t just whipsaw into opposing issues. We have volatility because over a relatively short time the fed has been very volatile with policy. This is not to ignore the volatility of govt spending over the same timeframe either, which is probably more to blame.
Posted by MikeD
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
7238 posts
Posted on 3/13/23 at 10:19 pm to
Let them eat cake
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4583 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 1:52 am to
They can’t pull money back out of the system once it’s there. The only way to do that is by raising taxes.

This chart is showing the growth of m2, meaning they’ve just slowed it significantly, which is not surprising since 40% of all currency in circulation was created in 2020-2021
Posted by LSUnation78
Northshore
Member since Aug 2012
12066 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 7:24 am to
quote:

They can’t pull money back out of the system once it’s there. The only way to do that is by raising taxes.


Not true
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4583 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 7:26 am to
The federal reserve cannot pull money back out of m2. That is true. Brian Wesbury chief economist of First Trust has talked exclusively about this.
Posted by TUman
Member since Aug 2005
299 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 7:53 am to
The fed is trapped. There is no practical way to fix this. This gon be painful baw.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
52973 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 8:14 am to
You’re gonna be begging for a spot on the fema camp train before long
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
52973 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 8:16 am to
quote:

Jack and Jill went up a hill Jill kicked Jack in the nuts

Cmon man her name is Dr. Jill show some respect
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51586 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 9:16 am to
quote:

Federal reserve pulled too much money out of the economy too quickly


There was never any choice.

When the federal government pumped over $3T into the economy in just 6 months, strong inflation was inevitable. With high and continually rising inflation the Fed had only one choice and that was to raise rates.

Even had JPow pulled a Volker (ie: went for the jugular by raising rates a few percentage points over inflation, within months), we still would have economic problems. No matter what claims have been made, a "soft landing" has never been in the cards due to the insane amount of liquidity in such a short window.
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
14456 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 9:24 am to
Looking back on it that whole Covid response created a monster. Shutting everything down, stimulus checks, unemployment benefits etc...Hind sight but dang bad decision after decision on that one including fed not raising the rates when the money was flowing.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4583 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 9:28 am to
Bingo
This post was edited on 3/14/23 at 9:29 am
Posted by Dawgfanman
Member since Jun 2015
22353 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 9:38 am to


Free money been flowing since 2008, parties over for now. People no longer know how to live without access to cheap credit
Posted by Diamondawg
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
32240 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 9:58 am to
quote:

Looking back on it that whole Covid response created a monster. Shutting everything down, stimulus checks, unemployment benefits etc...Hind sight but dang bad decision after decision on that one including fed not raising the rates when the money was flowing.

I'm more of a micro than a macro kind of guy but even I knew what they were doing at the time would come back to haunt us in a huge way. They certainly should have known.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 10:31 am to
quote:

Looking back on it that whole Covid response created a monster. Shutting everything down, stimulus checks, unemployment benefits etc...Hind sight but dang bad decision after decision on that one including fed not raising the rates when the money was flowing.


Correct, and as mentioned above the only thing for Powell to really do is largely what he’s done, but hindsight wasn’t required to see this mess coming before their actions. This would cross both presidents as well.

Rates should have been raised much earlier and then when lowered to keep the blood flow in response to covid mania it’s not through the floor and then you return to the tightening you’d already been doing prior to covid. We’ve had historically low rates for 14-15 years, throw in some stimulus, tax cuts (not saying these are bad), covid mania with MASSIVE stimulus and expansion of assistance programs, more tax cuts albeit temporary, and even lower rates. This was destined to happen. The last weeks activity will be a blip on the radar when the real shite hits the fan.
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2003 posts
Posted on 3/14/23 at 11:31 am to
quote:

They can’t pull money back out of the system once it’s there. The only way to do that is by raising taxes.


Oh boy...
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